2024 March Madness Odds: Ranking the Best 12th Seeds and Their Upset Chances
The 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket is officially set. Oddschecker analyst Peter Alexis shares his ranking for the 12th seeds and their upset chances. Read on to find out which underdog can shock the world against the 5th seeds in the first round of March Madness.
Peter Alexis - March 19, 2024, 2:35 PM EDT
5 min2024 March Madness Odds: Ranking the Best 12th Seeds and Their Upset Chances
The 2024 men's March Madness bracket has been officially set ahead of Thursday's opening round of games.
This edition of the NCAA Tournament has a stacked group of 12-seeds, but not much is known about them by the general public. These teams earned auto-bids through their conference tournaments, and with the exception of UAB, the rest are all in the top-60 of the NET rankings, a rare feat.
This is the first time the 12-seeds were rated this high since 2019, a year where three of them won in the first round. In the three brackets since then, only three total have won, including zero in 2023. We expect that to change this year with a strong crop of contenders, so let's see who has the best chance.
In this article, we'll highlight each 12 seed and rank them best to worst, along with predicting their upset chances in the tournament.
1. Grand Canyon Antelopes (+30000) CLICK HERE TO SEE GRAND CANYON'S ODDS TO WIN NCAA TOURNAMENT
The Grand Canyon Antelopes arrive after a healthy sweep in the WAC Tournament. They are ranked an impressive 50th in the NET, and have only four losses on the year.
GCU has the strongest defense of the 12-seeds, ranking in the top-75 of defensive efficiency. They especially excel in defensive field goal % allowed, coming in at number 10 in the country for 2-pt defense. This will be a major factor when trying to prevent teams from coming back against them.
The Antelopes are set to take on the Saint Mary's Gaels, another mid-major that has found tournament success over the years. The Gaels are another strong defensive team, but they play at a very slow pace. If the Antelopes can open up an early lead, it will be tough for SMC to catch up with them. Grand Canyon also has the fifth-best free throw percentage in the country, allowing them to close out games and shut down comeback attempts.
2. James Madison Dukes (+30000) CLICK HERE TO SEE JAMES MADISON'S ODDS TO WIN NCAA TOURNAMENT
The James Madison Dukes have been one of the most electrifying teams in college basketball. They started the season 14-0, catalyzed by a massive upset of the Michigan State Spartans. They only lost three games the rest of the way, culminating in a Sun Belt Tournament sweep and a nearly equal 13-game win streak.
JMU is ranked 52nd in the NET, and enjoys playing beyond the arc on both ends of the floor. They are 33rd-best in 3-point percentage, and second-best in the nation in 3-point defense. They have locked up numerous conference foes while making it rain from deep. That's bad news for the Badgers, because they have some of the worst 3-point defense in the country at 343rd.
Can the Dukes match their early season win streak at 14 with an upset over Wisconsin? They certainly have a shot, and if they get going from 3-point land, Greg Gard's team will struggle to stay in it. With a +5.5 spread and +190 moneyline odds, the Dukes have a 35% chance to get an underdog victory. They began the year with a Big Ten upset, and will look to come full circle on Friday night. Be on the look out for Terrence Edwards Jr. and the Dukes to make a run.
3. McNeese State Cowboys (+30000) CLICK HERE TO SEE MCNEESE'S ODDS TO WIN NCAA TOURNAMENT
The McNeese State Cowboys are the third best unit in this group of 12, but not by much. They round out the trio of teams that are within six spots of each other in the NET rankings. McNeese clocks in at 56th overall, and has a chance to make some noise in the first round.
The Cowboys have had an incredible turnaround orchestrated by former LSU head coach Will Wade. He took this program from 11-23 to 30-3 in just one season, and brings McNeese into a battle with Gonzaga on Thursday night.
Can Will Wade's group keep it rolling into the Round of 64? One of their assistants predicted their seeding and matchup ahead of the bracket even being released, and already began scouting the Zags. It will be an exciting mid-major matchup, and an unusual spot for Gonzaga at the 5 line after notoriously entering the tournament as a top seed. The Zags are only a 6-point favorite here, giving the Cowboys a 31% chance to pull the upset at +215 odds.
4. UAB BLAZERS (+80000) CLICK HERE TO SEE UAB'S ODDS TO WIN NCAA TOURNAMENT
The UAB Blazers are regarded as the weak link of the 12th seeds, at least analytically. They were a bid-stealer, so they had to pull a few upsets in the conference tournament to earn this spot, whereas the others were all the top seed or close to it.
The FAU Owls were already destined for the tournament out of the AAC, and when they were miraculously upset by the other Owls of Temple on Saturday night, it opened the door for another American team to join the field via the auto-bid. UAB was able to crush Temple on Sunday afternoon, and has now arrived to the Round of 64.
The Blazers rank back at 104 in the NET, far behind their fellow 12 seeds in the top 60. As far as point spreads go, UAB also faces the longest odds to win their first game. They are 7.5-point underdogs against San Diego State, last season's national championship runner-up. They have the least amount of focus on them as far as the 12's go, but could be the sneaky upset that no one expects.
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