March Madness Bubble Watch & Bracketology, Will Arkansas, Xavier, or UNC Make NCAA Tournament?

Each team has two games remaining in the regular season, with finales on Saturday afternoon. UNC will face off with Duke in the biggest possible prove-it game. Elsewhere, Arkansas hosts ranked Mississippi State in another Quad-1 game, while Xavier isn't as fortunate to have a big opportunity, but needs to win out regardless.

Can these teams continue their improved play after slow starts to the season? All of their Quad-1 records are a major detriment, but they have a few strong chances to win in their conference tournament and make the case to the selection committee that they belong with the best. According to the latest odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, they are all sitting around a 50% chance to make it to March Madness, some with a slightly better edge than others. Let's break down the latest odds and talk about the path to the NCAA Tournament.

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March Madness Bubble Watch Odds

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March Madness Bubble Watch

1. Arkansas To Make the NCAA Tournament -125 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Arkansas was looking like a lock for the tournament in our update last week, and completely cratered their chances on Saturday. They went to South Carolina and made THREE baskets out of 25 in the first half against one of the worst teams in the SEC. It was never even close, and they proceeded to lose by 20 points.

Their odds have plummeted down from -275 last week, and they are now back to even, with the pendulum able to swing either way. That was the one game they couldn't afford to lose, and now need to lock in on the road against a hot Vandy team tonight. If they can pull an upset in that test as a 7.5-point underdog, they will be back in the drivers seat. But the odds seem to say they aren't going to get it done, giving them only a 27% chance. In that case, it's essentially win or go home against No. 25 Mississippi State at home on Saturday. That Quad-1 victory is probably strong enough to carry them to March Madness, paired with a win or two in the SEC Tournament.

They are listed as a Last Four In team right now, and are squarely on the bubble. It will be hard to bounce back from that embarrassment against South Carolina, but if there was a man to do it, it's Coach Calipari. He has the veteran experience in this position, but it certainly won't be easy trying to win these next two games. Keep an eye on Arkansas here, as they could certainly implode and go home empty handed.

2. UNC To Make the NCAA Tournament +110 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

North Carolina has been fluttering up and down in this market, climbing up from +185 when we first started this series a few weeks ago. They haven't lost since, but even with four wins stacked up against mediocre teams, it hasn't truly moved the needle into the green zone. They have one of the most stark quadrant differences in the country, still at 1-10 in Quad 1, but 5-0 in Quad 2 and 18-1 overall in non-Quad-1 games.

Nine of their 11 losses come on the road or in neutral site games, and against mostly impressive teams. Regardless of how it happened, the 1-10 record can't be overlooked, so we can interpret this odds movement to mean two scenarios. Either UNC beats Duke and locks themselves into the tournament, or they lose that game and win at least two if not three ACC Tournament games. It takes several games to make up the gap that could be filled by a single win against the No. 2 Blue Devils on Saturday, and they'll have to find one or the other. The Tar Heels will probably be a double-digit underdog this weekend even at home, because that's how dominant Duke has been. But all that goes out the window in this tobacco road rivalry, so RJ Davis and the Heels will have to dig deep if they want to continue their season.

3. Xavier To Make the NCAA Tournament -115 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

The Xavier Musketeers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country, and could easily make some noise in March. They've quietly won five games in a row, and are seen here with basically even odds to make the tournament. My money is on yes here, after having watched this team for a large portion of the season. Sure, the Big East is having a bit of a down year, but they took the best team in the conference to overtime on the road Madison Square Garden, and haven't wavered from that physical energy since mid January.

Unfortunately for Xavier, they have a very similar story to UNC. Win the games you are supposed to, but fail to come up clutch with any big victories. They are 1-9 in Quad 1, and only have that same single loss elsewhere. But unlike UNC, they don't have a prove-it game against Duke looming, only two Quad 3 battles against Butler and Providence remaining. They'll obviously have to win both, but will also need to pull down a few wins in the Big East Tournament to boost the resume.

Xavier is 49th in the Net and 44th on KenPom, but they are marginally better than other teams that ESPN Bracketology currently has in the field, like Nebraska and Boise State. The X-Men are 27th nationally in rebounding, and that will carry their water in these postseason games, enabling them to sneak into the field. Watch out for this gritty squad flying under the radar if they can make it in.

Can either team make the Final Four if they slide into the Field? Check out the latest March Madness Final Four Odds