March Madness Bracketology: Will UNC make the NCAA Tournament?

The North Carolina Tar Heels have put the NCAA Tournament selection committee in a difficult position.

The Tar Heels went 1-12 in quad one games, but finished the regular season with 22 wins and a 13-7 record in the ACC.

North Carolina also reached the semifinals of the ACC Tournament, but a silly lane violation prevented the Tar Heels from forcing overtime against the Duke Blue Devils. If North Carolina had knocked off Duke in the ACC Tournament, we wouldn't even discuss whether it deserves a bid.

That said, the ACC was weak this season. In the final two games, the Duke Blue Devils earned the ACC Championship without its leading scorer, Cooper Flagg.

Duke, Louisville, and Clemson will earn bids into the NCAA Tournament, but those are the only guaranteed spots for the ACC. The Tar Heels are following, but their resume leaves much to be desired.

Let's check out what other bracketologists think and the concrete "Odds to Make the NCAA Tournament" ahead of today's Selection Sunday broadcast.

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March Madness Make the Field Odds

North Carolina's Odds To Make NCAA Tournament

• Yes (+330)
• No (-500)

Per FanDuel, the Tar Heels have an implied probability of about 83% that they won't make the tournament. Bet Now

Is "YES (+330)" a Good Bet?

The North Carolina Tar Heels went 1-12 in Quad 1 games this season. The only notable win for the Tar Heels was against the UCLA Bruins. However, that game could've gone either way after North Carolina won by just two points.

That said, the Tar Heels only lost one lousy game this season. That home loss to Stanford by one point was disappointing. However, the Tar Heels won all other games in Quad 2, Quad 3, and Quad 4.

Meanwhile, ESPN's Joe Lunardi pointed out that UNC's tournament odds have remained at 59%. Yet, he still has the Tar Heels as one of the first teams out.

This would mean that North Carolina wouldn't have done enough over teams like Vanderbilt, San Diego State, Xavier, and Indiana.

While Vanderbilt has three quad-two losses, it also has five quad-one wins and played in a much more difficult SEC. San Diego State also has three wins against quad one opponents but has three losses against teams below Quad 1.

If the committee favors wins against quad-one teams over bad losses, then San Diego State would move on over the Tar Heels. If not, the Tar Heels could sneak past San Diego State in the rankings.

Meanwhile, Xavier was super hot to close out the regular season. They've also had just one quad-one win this season. North Carolina's brand could help push the Tar Heels past Xavier. Both teams have nearly identical resumes, and each team finished the season strongly. Ultimately, Xavier played in the harder conference this season.

Lastly, Indiana was so bad earlier this season that Mike Woodson and Indiana agreed to part ways after the season was over. While Indiana didn't earn many massive wins, it never lost games it shouldn't have. It's just crazy to think that Indiana would make it after the fans booed almost every game down the stretch.

Ultimately, you can't go wrong with putting some change on the Tar Heels are +330. They're on the cusp. But they're also a big brand, and the committee could be biased.

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