2025 March Madness: 5 Most Overrated Teams In The Nation
Every year there are overrated teams that make the tournament as a high seed and flame out in the early rounds. So which overrated teams are in the NCAA Tournament this year? Matt MacKay shares his top 5 most overrated teams in the nation for 2025 March Madness.
Matt MacKay - March 19, 2025, 3:54 PM EDT
5 min2025 March Madness: 5 Most Overrated Teams In The Nation
We're less than 24 hours removed from the 2025 NCAA Tournament tipping off its First Round matchups. 64 schools will represent their conference in an attempt to conquer March Madness and win a National Championship title.
While every team had to work hard and secure wins throughout the 2024-25 NCAA men's basketball season, there are undoubtedly teams being overrated by the committee and college basketball fans. NCAAM handicapper Matt MacKay is here to highlight the five most overrated teams in March Madness ahead of First Round matchups on Thursday and Friday.
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2025 March Madness: Most Overrated Teams
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama has a fantastic offense, which is why the Crimson Tide wound up 25-8 playing in the most difficult conference this season. Led by G Marc Sears, Alabama leads the nation in points per game (91.1) and also rank 11th in offensive rating (118.7) this season. So why are they overrated? Defense is the primary reason to not be fully confident in Alabama during March Madness. The Crimson Tide rank 216th in defensive rating (106.0) and have allowed opponents to score 81.4 points per game, which is 356th out of 364 Division I teams.
Alabama's going to have to stay hot on offense to contend for a National Championship title. They are the 2 seed in the East Region, meaning even if they get to the Elite Eight against No. 1 Duke, the Blue Devils' top-tier defense will shut down the Crimson Tide's offense. I'm not even sure Alabama makes it past Saint Mary's or BYU in the Sweet 16.
No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats
Another SEC team with a ton of talented scorers, while lacking defense, is 3 seed Kentucky. The Wildcats are fourth in points scored per game (85.3) this season under head coach Mark Pope, with an offensive rating of 117.0, matching Alabama.
Defense is a huge liability for Kentucky, ranked 240th in defensive rating (106.8) and allowing opponents to score 77.9 points per game, ranked 324th in the nation. Since February, the Wildcats have lost to Arkansas, Ole Miss, Texas, Auburn, and Alabama twice.
They will be immediately tested by a quality defensive team like 14th-seed Troy. If they advance, Kentucky will likely have to outpace Illinois, who is a great shooting team in their own right. Then, it'd likely play Tennessee, then Houston, before getting to the Final Four.
Poor defense typically gets exposed in March Madness, unless teams shoot the lights out of the gym. Kentucky has the scoring ability but their inability to defend opposing teams will likely send them packing before the Sweet 16.
No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones
We shift to one of the best defensive teams in March Madness, Iowa State, representing the Big 12 as a 3 seed in the South Region. The Cyclones are 19th in defensive rating (96.5) and top-50 in offensive rating. Yet they won't have home court advantage to lean on like they did during a lot of their big wins recorded during the regular season.
Iowa State should get by 14 seed Lipscomb in the First Round without much trouble. Then, it's likely a matchup against red-hot UNC in the Second Round.
The Cyclones lost four of their final seven games played, getting bounced by BYU during their second game played in the Big 12 Tournament Quarterfinal. They are an overrated team in my estimation and will have a difficult time against UNC in the Second Round.
Even with a win over the Tar Heels to get to the Sweet 16, Iowa State would draw Michigan State, which would definitely be a loss.
No. 4 Arizona Wildcats
Arizona is right on the bubble in terms of being overrated. The Wildcats challenged No. 1 Houston in much of the Big 12 Tournament Final before allowing the Cougars to pull away late in that game.
Guards Caleb Love and Jaden Bradley are a dynamic back-court tandem, combing for over 28 points per game. Defense is once again a weakness, although not on the scale of Alabama or Kentucky.
Arizona ranks 117th in defensive rating (102.5) and 31st in offensive rating (115.6) this season. The Wildcats lost three of their final six games played prior to the NCAA Tournament, where they'll face an underrated Akron Zips offense in a 4 vs. 13 matchup in the East Region.
If the Wildcats survive Akron, they'll beat Oregon or Liberty to get to the Sweet 16. However, that's as far as this team will go, drawing a matchup against No. 1 Duke, who will shut down their offense and expose their defense.
No. 5 Oregon Ducks
Oregon seems to be a team that has garnered a lot of hype entering the NCAA Tournament. The Ducks have 7 foot C Nathan Bittle as their leading scorer and rebounder, while winning eight consecutive games prior to getting bounced in the Big Ten Quarterfinal against Michigan State.
Oregon mounted a late comeback on the road to beat Wisconsin, which was a big-time win on its resumé. This could be why so many are valuing the Ducks' ability to contend in March Madness. However, I just don't see it.
Oregon ranks 121st in offensive rating (109.9) and 112th in defensive rating (102.3), meaning they aren't quite good enough to keep up with elite scoring teams, or talented enough to contain opponents and win the rebounding battle.
Having their front court generate most of the production on offense is also concerning. The Ducks won't have much of a chance against Arizona in the Second Round and won't find themselves in the Sweet 16 this tournament.
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