Can Jake Paul Actually Beat Anthony Joshua? Odds Reveal 11% Chance of an Upset

Can Jake Paul Actually Beat Anthony Joshua? Odds Reveal 11% Chance of an Upset

Jake Paul is still not considered a proper boxer, despite now having 13 fights, 12 of which he has won. He has consistently come under fire for fighting people past their best, or has been accused of scripting fights in his favor.

Tonight, that doesn't appear to be an option. He is going to fight Anthony Joshua, who might be slightly past his peak, but he's still very much in title contention and ranked inside the top 10 in both the WBC and WBO heavyweight rankings.

The odds suggest a gulf in quality clearly exists, and boxing fans would certainly agree, but is there a world in which Paul has a fighting chance?

Jake Paul Capable of an Upset?

In the heavyweight division, there is always a chance one big punch can change the course of a fight, but Jake Paul is coming up from Cruiserweight so does that same fear exist here tonight? Oleksandr Usyk is a recent example of someone who has made the move up to heavyweight and dominated the division, and he has knocked out the naturally bigger Daniel Dubois twice in his last four fights.

There's precedent for a surprise from Paul, then, but he is in no way the same sort of talent as Usyk, and while Joshua is certainly a fighter who is susceptible to being knocked down, there is no real reason to believe Paul would be the one to deliver a knockout blow.

Paul will likely struggle to beat Joshua on points as he's the inferior boxer, so it would take a wild punch to catch Joshua off guard. Let's look at the likelihood of him landing that punch.

What Do the Odds Say About Jake Paul's Chances?

Jake Paul is best-priced at +800 on BetRivers and generally around +700 across the industry to win this fight. This implies he has an 11% chance of pulling off an upset.

Bet365 is pricing Jake Paul to win by KO, TKO, or DQ at +1600. Enter the bet365 bonus code CHECK, and you can unlock $150 in bonus bets just for betting $5 on this market as a new Bet365 user, win or lose.

Given the most likely way of Jake Paul winning is by a surprise knockout, there is realistically a 6.7% chance of him pulling off the unthinkable here.

Jake Paul Fight Record

• Total Professional Fights 13
• Wins: 12
• Losses 1 (to Tommy Fury by split decision)

This record positions Paul with solid momentum—especially following a six-fight winning streak—heading into his bout with Joshua.

Anthony Joshua Fight Record

• Total Fights
• Wins: 28
• Losses 4

Despite boasting a decorated CV with far bigger wins and more of them than Paul, his form is heading in the wrong direction, having lost 3 of his last 7 fights, including his most recent bout with Daniel Dubois.

Still, with all this in mind, we think Joshua is the clear favorite for a reason and cannot see Jake Paul pulling off the upset.