Oscars Odds: Oddsmakers Give Nomadland an 85.7% Chance to Win Best Picture

Nomadland seems to be a virtual lock to win best picture at the 2021 Academy Awards
Brian Good
Thu, April 22, 1:47 PM EDT

Oscars Odds: Oddsmakers Give Nomadland a 85.7% Chance to Win Best Picture

The Oscars have become one of the most popular niche betting events in the entire country, with viewers using the betting odds as a gauge for their favorite film’s chances of bringing home the award.

So, with just a few days until the 93rd Academy Awards gets underway, it can be interesting to take a look at the 2021 Oscars odds. There are a lot of toss ups and close calls between deserving directors, actors everyone involved, but when it comes to Best Picture odds, one film reigns supreme.

Nomadland, which was released in theaters and via streaming platforms in January, is the favorite no matter how you slice it. The film, directed by Chloe Zhao, is not only the oddsmakers’ choice to win, but bettors have been running to the window to back the film to win Best Picture on Sunday as well.

Oscars Best Picture Betting

Let’s start by breaking down how the betting public has bet the Best Picture market since betting opened. There are eight films nominated for Best Picture this year and they are and they stem from a variety of different genres.

2021 Best Picture Nominees

  • Nomadland
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Minari
  • Promising Young Woman
  • Judas and the Black Messiah
  • Mank
  • Sound of Metal
  • The Father

With eight options available in the market, you may expect the betting to be quite spread out, but that hasn’t been the case for this year’s Best Picture betting.

Since the market opened, 44.17% of all bets have been on Nomadland to take home the Best Picture award at the 2021 Oscars. That’s almost four times as many bets as the second most popular pick, The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Film Public Betting
Nomadland 44.17%
The Trial of the Chicago 7 11.12%
Minari 9.18%
Judas and the Black Messiah 6.48%
Promising Young Woman 5.94%
Mank 5.83%
The Father 4.64%
Sound of Metal 2.92%

2021 Best Picture Odds

The odds have moved a bit in this market, but Nomadland has been the favorite since betting opened and is expected to take home the Oscar for Best Picture. Currently, Nomadland’s best odds to win the award sit at -600, but the film is as short as -670 at some places. At -600, oddsmakers are giving the film a whopping 85.7% chance to win Best Picture.

Next up is the second most popular pick among the betting public, The Trial of the Chicago 7. This film, written and directed by Aaron Sorkin, is the story of The Chicago 7, a group of anti-Vietnam War protestors. As of now, oddsmakers aren’t giving it much of a chance at upsetting Nomadland. Its +600 odds imply just a 14.3% chance of taking home the Oscar for Best Picture.

Minari (+1400), Promising Young Woman (+1700), Judas and the Black Messiah (+3300), Mank (+3300), Sound of Metal (+5000) and The Father (+10000) make up the rest of the Best Picture market.

Film Best Picture Odds Implied Probability
Nomadland -600 85.7%
The Trial of the Chicago 7 +600 14.3%
Minari +1400 6.7%
Promising Young Woman +1700 5.6%
Judas and the Black Messiah +3300 2.9%
Mank +3300 2.9%
Sound of Metal +5000 2%
The Father +10000 1%

Get complete Oscar Odds for every awar category here!

DraftKings $25,000 Free To Play Oscars Game

All you have to do to enter the free-to-play is to sign up with our link, then give you selections to win certain awards. You earn points by getting your predictions correct and then the $25k prize pool is split between those at the top, with the winner getting $1,000 in cash.

Here's how you sign up:

1. Click this exclusive link to qualify

2. Register to DraftKings Sportsbook (takes a couple of minutes)

3. Enter your selections to win the following awards:

  • Best Picture
  • Best Lead Actor
  • Best Lead Actress
  • Best Supporting Actor
  • Best Supporting Actress
  • Best Director
  • Best Original Screenplay
  • Best Adapted Screenplay
  • Best Animated Feature
  • Best Original Song

4. Once you’ve entered your selections, you are all set to win a share of the $25,000! You will score points for every correct selection, and the person with the most correct selections will in $1,000 at the end of the night.

How about that? It's all totally free and you can win big money! So what are you waiting for? Get involved now.


Almost there!

We are loading your bets, and they will be here in a second.