Oscars Odds: Oddsmakers Give Nomadland a 85.7% Chance to Win Best Picture
The Oscars have become one of the most popular niche betting events in the entire country, with viewers using the betting odds as a gauge for their favorite film’s chances of bringing home the award.
So, with just a few days until the 93rd Academy Awards gets underway, it can be interesting to take a look at the 2021 Oscars odds. There are a lot of toss ups and close calls between deserving directors, actors everyone involved, but when it comes to Best Picture odds, one film reigns supreme.
Nomadland, which was released in theaters and via streaming platforms in January, is the favorite no matter how you slice it. The film, directed by Chloe Zhao, is not only the oddsmakers’ choice to win, but bettors have been running to the window to back the film to win Best Picture on Sunday as well.
Oscars Best Picture Betting
Let’s start by breaking down how the betting public has bet the Best Picture market since betting opened. There are eight films nominated for Best Picture this year and they are and they stem from a variety of different genres.
2021 Best Picture Nominees
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
- Promising Young Woman
- Judas and the Black Messiah
- Sound of Metal
- The Father
With eight options available in the market, you may expect the betting to be quite spread out, but that hasn’t been the case for this year’s Best Picture betting.
Since the market opened, 44.17% of all bets have been on Nomadland to take home the Best Picture award at the 2021 Oscars. That’s almost four times as many bets as the second most popular pick, The Trial of the Chicago 7.
|The Trial of the Chicago 7||11.12%|
|Judas and the Black Messiah||6.48%|
|Promising Young Woman||5.94%|
|Sound of Metal||2.92%|
The odds have moved a bit in this market, but Nomadland has been the favorite since betting opened and is expected to take home the Oscar for Best Picture. Currently, Nomadland’s best odds to win the award sit at -600, but the film is as short as -670 at some places. At -600, oddsmakers are giving the film a whopping 85.7% chance to win Best Picture.
Next up is the second most popular pick among the betting public, The Trial of the Chicago 7. This film, written and directed by Aaron Sorkin, is the story of The Chicago 7, a group of anti-Vietnam War protestors. As of now, oddsmakers aren’t giving it much of a chance at upsetting Nomadland. Its +600 odds imply just a 14.3% chance of taking home the Oscar for Best Picture.
|Film||Best Picture Odds||Implied Probability|
|The Trial of the Chicago 7||+600||14.3%|
|Promising Young Woman||+1700||5.6%|
|Judas and the Black Messiah||+3300||2.9%|
|Sound of Metal||+5000||2%|
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