Oscars Odds: Chadwick Boseman the Overwhelming Best Actor Favorite

Boseman is expected to win the award for Best Actor on Sunday
Brian Good
Sat, April 24, 12:15 PM EDT

Oscars Odds: Chadwick Boseman the Overwhelming Best Actor Favorite

Whenever the award for Best Actor is announced at the 2021 Oscars, it will be a somber moment, no matter who wins. Chadwick Boseman, beloved by so many for his work on and off the big screen, would have won this Best Actor award no matter what. But, since his passing in 2020, he’s carried a little bit more momentum to take the Oscar home.

Now, about 24 hours from the starts of the 2021 Oscars, oddsmakers are tabbing Boseman as a relative certainty to win the award. If he pulls it off he becomes the second actor to ever win Best Actor posthumously. The first to do it was Peter Finch in 1977.

Boseman is nominated for Best Actor at the 2021 Oscars for his role as Levee Green in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. He isn’t the only person from the film to be recognized for their leading role, either. Boseman’s co-star, Viola Davis, is nominated for Best Actress for her incredible performance in the film.

So, what does the betting picture for the 2021 Best Actor award look like? Where is the betting public putting its money? Let’s take a look just a day before the 93rd Academy Awards.

2021 Oscars: Best Actor Odds

If Boseman were to not win the Oscar for Best Actor at the 2021 Academy Awards, it would be a monumental upset. About 24 hours before the show is scheduled to start on Sunday, Boseman’s Best Actor odds sit at -1200. Those odds are indicative of a 92.3% chance he wins.

Boseman has never won an Academy Award, but he’s already won the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Award for this role, so that’s a good indication that his winning ways will continue at the 2021 Oscars.

The next most likely actor to take home the award for Best Actor, according to oddsmakers, is Anthony Hopkins, whose odds are currently +700. Hopkins already has an Oscar for Best Actor, which he won in 1992 for his part in Silence of the Lambs. This is his seventh Academy Award nomination.

Gary Oldman, Riz Ahmed and Steven Yeun are also nominated for Best Actor at the 2021 Oscars.

Actor Movie Odds Implied Probability
Chadwick Boseman Ma Rainey's Black Bottom -1200 92.3%
Anthony Hopkins The Father +700 15.5%
Riz Ahmed Sound of Metal +1600 5.9%
Gary Oldman Mank +3300 2.9%
Steven Yeun Minari +3300 2.9%

2021 Oscars: Best Actor Betting

As far as the betting markets are concerned, the Best Actor category is being bet pretty much the same as it’s been priced up by oddsmakers.

Boseman leads the way with a whopping 51.12% of bets coming in on him since the market opened earlier this year. Behind him is Hopkins with 25.32% of bets. Riz Ahmed is backed by 16.17% of the betting public while Gary Oldman and Steven Yeun each bring in less than 5% of Best Actor bets.

Actor Movie Public Betting
Chadwick Boseman Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 51.12%
Anthony Hopkins The Father 25.32%
Riz Ahmed Sound of Metal 16.17%
Gary Oldman Mank 3.83%
Steven Yeun Minari 3.62%

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