NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen Surges to Overwhelming MVP Favorite After Lamar Jackson Injury
The Buffalo Bills are humming along with the best record in the NFL, tied with only the Philadelphia Eagles. But unlike their QB, the Bills have a bonafide MVP favorite leading the charge, with Josh Allen putting up an extensive stat line compared to Jalen Hurts. He's now got a massive advantage in the MVP race, with Lamar Jackson falling down after his unknown hamstring injury status. Peter Alexis takes a look at the NFL MVP odds swing on Monday morning, September 29th.
Peter Alexis - September 29, 2025, 12:40 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadNFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen Surges to Overwhelming MVP Favorite After Lamar Jackson Injury
Four weeks into the NFL season, the MVP race has already tilted heavily in favor of Josh Allen. The Buffalo Bills quarterback has surged to the top of the board as the overwhelming favorite at +110, with some sportsbooks even offering him at slight minus odds. To see a player priced this way before the calendar even flips to October is nearly unprecedented, and it speaks to the dominance Allen has displayed in the early going.
Allen has put together a complete resume to this point, throwing for nearly 1,000 yards while also flashing his dual-threat ability on the ground. He’s tied for sixth in the league with three rushing touchdowns, and most importantly, he’s led Buffalo to a perfect 4-0 start. The Bills’ statement wins have elevated Allen above the field, and with his combination of gaudy stats and team success, oddsmakers are treating him as the clear frontrunner.
Just a week ago, Lamar Jackson was right there with Allen around +300 at most books, but a hamstring injury against the Chiefs and Baltimore’s 1-3 start sent his odds tumbling down to +900. Wins carry enormous weight in the MVP discussion, and Allen already owns a head-to-head victory over Jackson from Week 1. That leaves Justin Herbert as the closest challenger at +700, though his stock dipped after a surprising loss to the Giants. For now, the gap is widening, and Allen has separated himself as the early season MVP favorite.
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NFL MVP Odds Breakdown
Josh Allen (+1100) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Allen has taken commanding control of the MVP race with a stat line that is already separating him from the pack. He’s closing in on 1,000 passing yards, tied for sixth in the league with three rushing scores, and has Buffalo sitting at a perfect 4-0. In a race that usually remains muddled deep into the season, Allen has created real separation just a month in, rising from +320 to +110 in the last week. He’ll look to add to his résumé under the bright lights next week when the Bills host the Patriots on Sunday Night Football in an AFC East showcase.
Justin Herbert (+700) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Herbert remains the closest challenger, though he lost ground with the Chargers’ Week 4 stumble against the Giants. Los Angeles fell to 3-1, and Herbert struggled to get the offense moving in a game where the playmakers never found a rhythm. If the Chargers’ star quarterback is going to make a push in the MVP race, he’ll need to connect more consistently with receiver Ladd McConkey and put up bigger numbers. He’ll get a chance to rebound next week in what should be a fun battle of young QBs against Jayden Daniels and the Commanders.
Lamar Jackson (+900) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings SportsbookClick here to get the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Jackson’s fall in the odds stems less from performance and more from circumstance. Baltimore is 1-3, but all three losses have come against heavyweight opponents in Buffalo, Los Angeles, and Kansas City. The bigger concern is the hamstring injury Jackson suffered against the Chiefs. Its severity is still unknown, and oddsmakers have temporarily taken the Ravens’ Week 5 line off the board until more clarity emerges. Baltimore was initially favored by 9.5 points over Houston, but if Jackson misses time, the Ravens’ outlook could change dramatically.
Patrick Mahomes (+1000) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings SportsbookClick here to get the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Mahomes has reentered the MVP conversation after showing vintage form in a blowout win over Baltimore’s banged-up defense. He finally looked comfortable commanding the offense with reinforcements arriving in the passing game. Xavier Worthy returned to action, while Tyquan Thornton continued to step up, giving Mahomes more weapons to work with. Now back to 2-2, the Chiefs are trending upward, and Mahomes has a golden chance to climb the MVP board further in Week 5 when Kansas City visits the surging Jaguars as a slight road favorite.
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