College Football Playoff Expansion: How Would The Field Look if 12-Team Expansion Happened This Season?
The College Football Playoff committee has voted unanimously to expand the playoffs from four teams to 12. In an effort to show how that will affect the college football landscape, here’s a look at how sports bettors would view the playoffs in 2022.
Kyle Newman - September 3, 2022, 3:42 PM EDT
7 minsCollege Football Playoff Expansion: How Would The Field Look if 12-Team Expansion Happened This Season?
The College Football Playoff committee has voted unanimously to expand the playoffs from four teams to 12. In an effort to show how that will affect the college football landscape, here’s a look at how sports bettors would view the playoffs in 2022.
Conference Champions
The new format will allow the six highest-ranking conference champions into the playoffs. According to sportsbooks, if this format were to start this year then Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, USC, Oklahoma, and Houston would be favored to make the playoffs.
Alabama is the massive favorite to win the SEC at -140, or an implied 58.3% chance. Ohio State is an even bigger favorite to win the Big Ten at -230, or an implied 69.7% chance. Clemson is another massive favorite at -120, or an implied 54.5% chance. The Pac-12 is the closest with USC a small favorite at +225, or just an implied 30.8% chance to win. Oklahoma is in a similar boat at +200, or just an implied 33.3% chance. Meanwhile, Houston is given +200 odds of their own to win the AAC.
If the playoffs were to turn out like this it would mean the first playoff appearance for both Houston and USC.
Conference Champions Odds
Odds | Implied Chance | Conference Champions |
|---|---|---|
-230 | 69.7% | Ohio State |
-140 | 58.3% | Alabama |
-120 | 54.5% | Clemson |
+200 | 33.3% | Oklahoma |
+200 | 33.3% | Houston |
+225 | 30.8% | USC |
At-Large Contenders
So who could be the at-large contenders? Well, sportsbooks have a very clear next top-6.
Georgia is given +450 odds to win the national title, third in the country. Texas A&M has +2500 odds to win the title, 5th in the country. Sportsbooks would view both of them as locks. With Michigan at +5000, Notre Dame at +6000, Utah at +6500, and Texas at +8000 the clear next tier.
No other team on the market is given better than +10000 odds. Meaning sportsbooks clearly view these six as the best non-conference champions in the country. As a result, would likely solidify the new at-large bids if the expansion started this season. If this were to hold, it would mean Texas A&M, Utah, and Texas would all be first-time playoff teams.
At-Large Contenders Odds
At-Large Contenders | Odds | Implied Chance |
|---|---|---|
Georgia | +450 | 18.2% |
Texas A&M | +2500 | 3.8% |
Michigan | +5000 | 2% |
Notre Dame | +6000 | 1.6% |
Utah | +6500 | 1.5% |
Texas | +8000 | 1.2% |
The expanded playoffs open things up for both power 5 schools who are now guaranteed at least one spot and for lesser non-power 5 schools. As demonstrated but the odds, the expectation this year would be that five of the 12 teams that made the playoffs would be doing so for the first time in team history, and four of those schools would come from Power 5 conferences.
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