Next College Football Coach Fired Odds: Luke Fickell, Mike Norvell, Hugh Freeze Most Likely to Be Fired Next
The Florida Gators axed Billy Napier as head football coach on Sunday morning, marking the second major firing after James Franklin as the coaching carousel gets going early in 2025. Now, Peter Alexis analyzes the odds on who could be next after these two, with Mike Norvell and Hugh Freeze leading the way as the losses pile up in October.
Peter Alexis - October 20, 2025, 3:50 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadNext College Football Coach Fired Odds: Luke Fickell, Mike Norvell, Hugh Freeze on Hot Seat After Sluggish Starts
In the NIL era, the college football coaching carousel gets going early in the season, as big-money boosters call for the heads of struggling coaches. James Franklin and Billy Napier learned that the hard way in the last few weeks, getting bought out for tens of millions of dollars. Franklin's $49 million was second all-time after Jimbo Fisher a few years ago, but that may change with Mike Norvell on the hook next.
So who will bite the bullet after Franklin and Napier hit the door? Hugh Freeze of Auburn, Luke Fickell at Wisconsin, and Mike Norvell at FSU are all winless in conference play, and the losses are starting to get uglier and more embarrassing. We've got odds on who will be fired next, so let's take a look at how this could shake out in the coming weeks.
Get your first month of oddschecker+ right now for just $0.99. Don't miss out on this NFL preseason deal!
Next College Football Coach Fired Odds
Coach | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
Luke Fickell | +100 | 50% |
Mike Norvell | +200 | 33.3% |
Hugh Freeze | +300 | 25% |
Bill Belichick | +500 | 16.7% |
Mark Stoops | +1200 | 7.7% |
Dabo Swinney | +1600 | 5.9% |
Click here for more NCAAF Season Specials
Luke Fickell +100 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Luke Fickell is the favorite to be fired next, but these odds may change soon. The Wisconsin coach has failed to score a single point in the last two weeks, getting shut out by Iowa and Ohio State. The offense is averaging a meager 13.3 points per game, 133rd out of 136 teams in the entire FBS. It's by far the worst among power conference teams, and there doesn't seem to be any relief in sight for the Badgers.
But it seems Fickell will not be promptly fired, with the Athletic Director coming out in support of the embattled coach on Monday afternoon. Fickell is 15-18 in his three seasons with the team, but the program is instead opting to increase funding to help him compete. There is a serious lack of talent for Fickell when matched up against Big Ten opponents, especially on offense. This may be attributed to NIL funding, as other big schools continue to stockpile resources from boosters.
The Badgers are now taking on top-10 Oregon this week to make matters worse, and their team total is 7.5 points, juiced to the under at -240 odds. The question isn't if they will lose, but by how much, and how few points will they muster. It's also important to note that just because he got a vote of confidence from the AD here in Week 8 that the situation won't change in the coming weeks. If the Badgers continue to fail to find the end zone or even get competitive in these games, the administration may reconsider Fickell's support. But he's "safe" for a couple weeks as of now.
Mike Norvell +200 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Mike Norvell is on the way out at Florida State, the question is just when. The Seminoles were somehow ranked in the top-10 after beating Alabama to open the season, and won their first three games. Then ACC play began, and Norvell tanked down to 0-4 in conference matchups, with the latest loss coming in embarrassing fashion as -17.5 favorites on the road at Stanford. It was the last game of the night, they trailed throughout against a Stanford squad lacking in talent, and then had a chance to tie it as time expired and got tackled on the one-foot line.
It was a perfect embodiment of the Norvell experience, falling to 36-31 in his tenure at FSU. They peaked in 2023 when snubbed from the College Football Playoff due to injury, and all of the air was immediately sucked out of the program. The DJ Uiagalelei disaster led to a 2-10 season a year ago, and now they're 3-4 under Thomas Castellanos. Conversations are actively ongoing about dismissing Norvell, but the buyout is $55 million. That's even higher than Franklin's $49 million a few weeks ago, and they've both had similar falls from grace after top-10 starts to the season. Things change fast in college football, and the boosters will find a way to foot the bill. Norvell is not likely to survive the season, and this is the best bet at +200 odds in this market. With FSU going on bye, the time may be now.
Hugh Freeze +300 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Hugh Freeze went down in double overtime to Mizzou over the weekend, marking a fourth-straight loss for the Auburn Tigers amid a winless start to SEC play. Billy Napier was just axed at Florida, and it sort of feels like Freeze is next on that trajectory. There are also reports of losing the locker room after Freeze dismissed one of the captains off the team last week.
Auburn has games against Arkansas and Kentucky in the next few weeks, two "bottom-feeders" that just went to the wire with ranked Texas and Texas A&M. There are no free wins in the SEC, and if Freeze doesn't win both of those, he is likely terminated by early November as Auburn will want to position themselves in the upcoming coaching carousel.
Bill Belichick +500 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Bill Belichick could certainly get chopped by UNC, but as we wrote about last week, he's likely to stay on through the season at -300 odds. However, Belichick is +250 to be the coach next season, so expect the two sides to part ways after the season. UNC did finally put up a fight on the road against Cal on Friday night, but fumbled the ball out the end zone when reaching for the go-ahead score in the final seconds. The fiasco summed up the Belichick tenure so far, though it is early. With the talent on the roster, it's unlikely they turn it around in the final few games, and Belichick is probably thinking that this isn't the best spot for him at 73 years old.
Dabo Swinney +1600 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
This one's a bit less likely, but never say never. Dabo has been a controversial figure at Clemson over the year's, from his obscure press conference commentary and rotating blame game. He brought great success to the Tigers, and did squeeze into the playoffs last year. But the program is clearly going in the wrong direction from the great heights they experienced in the late 2010s, and they could look to make a change from Swinney after the season. They just lost again to SMU with a backup QB at home, but it's still unlikely they fire him during the season after the program history, so it wouldn't be a great bet to take him to be next on the chopping block compared to Norvell or Freeze.
More NFL Odds
Affiliate Disclosure.
We are not a gambling or betting operator, but we receive a commission from these companies when we advertise their brands and refer customers to them (affiliate marketing). We provide information, odds information and links to websites of these companies. Some of the information made available on our site may be positioned as a result of a commission paid to us by a third party. We do not take or place bets/transactions and any information on Our Products is provided for entertainment purposes only.
