North Texas vs. San Diego State Opt-Out Tracker, Transfers, Injuries, Starting Lineups, Best Bet for New Mexico Bowl
The San Diego State Aztecs will take on the North Texas Mean Green in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl on Saturday night in a classic Group of Five showdown. Jack Borovitz analyzes this North Texas vs. San Diego State transfer portal and opt-out tracker for Saturday, December 27th in the New Mexico Bowl.
Jack Borovitz - December 27, 2025, 5:00 PM EST
5 Minute ReadNorth Texas vs. San Diego State Preview: Who Is Opting-Out, Injured for Isleta New Mexico Bowl on Saturday, December 27th
The New Mexico Bowl delivers a throwback matchup defined by contrasting philosophies and minimal roster disruption. North Texas sits as a -7.5 favorite after the line opened at -6.5, a modest move that reflects questions about both team's coaching continuity. The Mean Green bring an explosive offense to Albuquerque, while the Aztecs counter with the fourth-ranked defense in points allowed. One team scores at will, the other barely allows points.
North Texas enters without head coach Eric Morris, who left for Oklahoma State after leading the country's highest-scoring attack. Drew Svoboda takes over as interim, inheriting an offense poised to continue scoring at will. The quarterback room remains intact, the skill position talent is mostly available, and the system that overwhelmed the American Conference stays in place. Interior line losses to opt-outs create questions about pass protection and run blocking consistency, but for a team built on offensive firepower, stability where it matters most keeps the Mean Green dangerous.
San Diego State counters with defensive continuity despite losing coordinator Rob Aurich to Nebraska. The Aztecs held opponents to 12.6 points per game and ranked sixth nationally in total defense at 266.7 yards allowed. Passing game coordinator Demetrius Sumler steps into the coordinator role, inheriting a unit that could be shorthanded depending on late opt-out decisions. Transfer portal departures on the edge already created rotation adjustments. More absences on the second level or in the secondary would test depth against North Texas' aerial attack. History favors defense in bowl season, but this specific test is against a high powered offense.
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North Texas vs. San Diego State Date, Time, and Where to Watch New Mexico Bowl
- Date: Saturday, December 27, 2025
- Time: 5:45 PM ET
- How to Watch: ESPN
North Texas vs. San Diego State Odds
Isleta New Mexico Bowl | Odds |
|---|---|
North Texas -7.5 (-105) | San Diego State +7.5 (-115) |
North Texas ML (-298) | San Diego State ML (+240) |
Over 53.5 Total Points | Under 53.5 Total Points |
Click here for the latest North Texas vs. San Diego State Odds
North Texas vs. San Diego State Opt-Outs Tracker & Injuries
North Texas Opt-Outs
- DT Jayden Williams
- DT Saadiq Clements
- OG Johnny Dickson
North Texas Injuries
- RB Caleb Hawkins
- LB Shane Whitter
- RB Makenzie McGill II
- WR Simeon Evans
North Texas Coaching Changes
Head coach Eric Morris took the job at Oklahoma State and will not be with the team for the bowl. I'd guess North Texas might have a handful of key opt-outs, with a few potentially following Morris to Stillwater, where they'd instantly start. However, per the latest updates, most are expected to play.
Special teams coach Drew Svoboda will serve as the interim coach for the bowl game with the rest of the staff expected to stay on for the game, sans Morris.
San Diego State Transfer Portal
- DE Jared Badie (131 snaps)
- EDGE August Salvati (118 snaps)
San Diego State Potential Opt-Outs
- CB Chris Johnson
- LB Owen Chambliss
- EDGE Trey White
San Diego State Injuries
- QB Jayden Denegal (surgery; will not play)
- WR Jordan Napier (out for year)
- WR Jacob Bostick (out for year)
- LB Tano Letuli (last played in Week 10; 209 snaps)
San Diego State Coaching Changes
Aztec defensive coordinator Rob Aurich took the same job with Nebraska. Passing game coordinator Demetrius Sumler will serve as the interim DC for the bowl game.
North Texas vs. San Diego State Odds Breakdown - Isleta New Mexico Bowl
North Texas brings firepower that San Diego State hasn't seen all season. QB Drew Mestemaker leads the FBS in passing yards at 4,129, completing 70.2 percent of his throws with 31 touchdowns against seven interceptions. The supporting cast amplifies his production. WR Wyatt Young posted 1,209 receiving yards with 10 touchdowns, including a single-game FBS-best 295-yard performance. RB Caleb Hawkins ran for 1,236 yards and 23 touchdowns as a true freshman before getting banged up in the conference championship. His status remains uncertain, but Kiefer Sibley offers a capable replacement behind an offensive line that helped the Mean Green rank first in total offense at 504.3 yards per game. Interior line opt-outs create depth concerns, particularly if San Diego State generates consistent pressure up front.
San Diego State lost starting quarterback Jayden Denegal to shoulder surgery, shifting the Aztecs toward a run-first approach with backup Bert Emanuel Jr. under center. Emanuel offers mobility but limited passing consistency, which plays directly into San Diego State's new identity. Expect them to lean on RB Lucky Sutton, who rushed for 1,237 yards, control the clock, and keep Mestemaker off the field. The defensive side faces uncertainty. Potential opt-outs at cornerback, linebacker, and edge create rotation questions against an offense that averaged over 500 yards per game. CB Chris Johnson and LB Owen Chambliss are critical pieces. Their absence would stress depth against North Texas' passing attack.
From a market perspective, the line raised from -6.5 to -7.5, suggesting sharp action on San Diego State. The Mean Green remain favored for a reason. Their offensive talent is overwhelming, their quarterback is a star, and their system travels regardless of who's calling plays. San Diego State's path to victory is narrow but clear: control the ball, limit possessions, force North Texas into patience they haven't needed all season.
North Texas vs. San Diego State Best Bet
- Pick: North Texas -7.5 (-110) Check out these best odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
The line sits exactly where it should. North Texas has the firepower to cover, San Diego State has the defense to keep it competitive. Bowl season often rewards the more settled team, but this isn't a case of chaos versus stability. Both programs face coaching adjustments. Both lose key contributors. The difference is talent. Mestemaker is the best player on the field, the Mean Green receivers create mismatches, and San Diego State's offensive limitations put pressure on a defense that needs to be perfect.
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