New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has won three AP NFL Coach of the Year awards in his storied career. The first came in 2003 on his way to a Super Bowl title, then he won the award again in 2007 and 2010.
This season, Belichick is the favorite (+1200) to win his fourth Coach of the Year award, but the race is more wide open than it’s been in a long time.
Belichick’s +1200 odds, which are the same as Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy's, are the longest odds for a favorite in at least the last five years. In that time, no favorite has opened up with odds longer than +950, until this season.
Belichick’s listed odds give him a 7.7% implied probability of taking home the award. Last season’s favorite, Tampa Bay head coach Bruce Arians, opened at +950 with a 9.5% chance to win.
The Pats and Belichick are usually a lock to win the AFC East and make a long playoff run, and those type of annual expectations can make it hard to win coach of the year, but with Tom Brady heading to Tampa Bay, all eyes are on how Belichick will fare without the GOAT.
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New England’s starting quarterback Jarrett Stidham has attempted four passes in his one-year career. If Belichick can win another AFC East title and make a playoff run with an unproven asset at quarterback, it’ll take a miracle to prevent him from winning the award.
Former Dolphins head coach Don Shula, who passed away on Monday, is the only other coach to have ever won the award four times.
Arians, Brady’s new head coach, is tied with Frank Reich for the second-shortest odds (+1400), and Kliff Kingsbury and Sean McDermott are both +1800 to win the award. Last year’s winner, Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh, is currently +2200.