Super Bowl LV Betting Odds, Opening Line and Total
It’s been a long, unique NFL season throughout 2020 and 2021, but, as of Sunday night, we’ve narrowed it down to just two teams ahead of Super Bowl LV. Representing the AFC, for the second year in a row will be the Kansas City Chiefs. As for the NFC, they’ll be sending the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Chiefs defeated the Cleveland Browns in the Divisional Round, 22-17, before dismantling the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game. KC is the defending Super Bowl Champions, and would be the first team to repeat as champs since the Patriots did it in both 2004 and 2005.
It seems appropriate that the person standing in the way of the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes being the first team to repeat as champions in quite some time is the quarterback of the last team to accomplish that feat, Tom Brady. Brady is making his first Super Bowl appearance as a member of the NFC. The Bucs beat Washington, New Orleans and Green Bay, in that order, to earn their first Super Bowl appearance in 2003.
It’s impossible to know what we’ll see come opening kick, but a look at the betting odds can often give us a peak into what to expect. What are oddsmakers saying? How are bettors betting the game? Let’s take a look inside the numbers.
As of the Sunday night, betting lines for Super Bowl LV opened with the Kansas City Chiefs as 3.5-point favorites over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Since then, the line has moved down to 3 in some places and up to four in others, and will continue to move in the two weeks leading up to the game.
But, as of Monday, the Chiefs are a 3-point favorite to win the Super Bowl, in most places. Super Bowl LV will be unique for a multitude of reasons. First, the stadium capacity will be limited to 7,500 vaccinated healthcare workers and 14,500 additional fans, making it a total of around 22,000 fans in the stands. However, the most unique aspect of the game is that, for the first time ever, a team will compete in the Super Bowl in their home stadium, as the game takes place at Tampa’s Raymond James Stadium.
So what is the betting public saying? Somewhat surprisingly, they’re rolling with the underdog Buccaneers.
68.39% of all spread wagers on this game are on the Buccaneers to cover the spread.
Kansas City Chiefs -3 @ -110 (Click to bet) – 31.61% of wagers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 @ +110 (Click to bet) – 68.39% of wagers
As far as the total for the Super Bowl is concerned, it’s set quite high, sitting at 56.5 at most sportsbooks. In comparison, only three Super Bowls in the history of the NFL (2019, 2017 and 2010) have had totals set higher than this year.
And, as is expected, bettors are hammering the over, despite the high number. In general, bettors are hesitant to bet the under, essentially rooting for fewer points to be scored. Now add in the fact that it’s two of the best QBs in the NFL going at it on a national stage and it makes sense why we're seeing 72.16% of bets come in on the over.
Over 56.5 @ -106 (Click to bet) – 72.16% of wagers
Under 56.5 @ -108 (Click to bet) – 27.84% of wagers
We already know the sportsbooks are favoring the Chiefs to win their second Super Bowl in a row, but just how much juice are they putting on the defending champs? Well, as of Monday, Kansas City’s best odds on the moneyline sit at -150, with their worst odds at -175.
Meanwhile, Tom Brady and the rest of the Bucs are as long as +150 and as short as +125, depending where you are looking.
At -150, oddsmakers are giving the Chiefs a 60% implied probability of coming out on top, despite the fact that the Buccaneers will be playing at home. For Tampa Bay, their +150 odds give them a 40% shot at pulling off the upset.
Not only do most bettors expect the Bucaneers to cover, but the majority of them also expect them to win outright. 59.43% of moneyline wagers since betting opened on Sunday have been on Tampa to win outright.
Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline @ -150 (Click to bet) – 40.57% of wagers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline @ +150 (Click to bet) – 59.43% of wagers