2021 NFL MVP Award Odds: Brady Sits at +1600 for Next Season’s Award

Could Brady really win his fourth regular season MVP next season? Oddsmakers don't think it's out of the question
Brian Good
Mon, February 8, 12:45 PM EST

2021 NFL MVP Award Odds: Brady Sits at +1600 for Next Season’s Award

On Sunday night, Tom Brady did what he’s done more than any other player in league history. He won a Super Bowl. The win gave Brady seven rings. He already held the record for most Super Bowl victories prior to the game, with 6, but his 7th extends his lead over Charles Haley, who won five in his career.

Brady didn’t just win the game, either, he also won the game’s Most Valuable Player award, making him the oldest player to ever achieve that feat.

During Sunday night’s game, the phenom Patrick Mahomes looked pedestrian behind a patchwork offensive line while Brady, at age 43, meticulously picked apart the Kansas City secondary.

Somehow, despite his age and the toll a 20+ year in the NFL has taken on his body, Brady continues to defy time and look every bit as good as his younger self each year. So, with the 2021 season already sneaking up on us, can Brady somehow win yet another regular season MVP trophy? Not only is it not out of the question, but the GOAT has the 6th shortest odds to win next season’s award, according to DraftKings.

2021 NFL MVP Award Betting

A lot will be different next year. Patrick Mahomes, the favorite to win the 2021 NFL MVP Award at +500 (Click to bet), will have another year of experience under his belt with the most talented group of receivers in the NFL.

Aaron Rodgers has the 2nd shortest odds (+800) in 2021. He’s hinted at the possibility of some unknowns in his future, but no matter where he plays, the 2020 winner will be in the conversation come the end of next season.

After that, names like Josh Allen (+1300), Russell Wilson (+1300) and Matthew Stafford (+1500) make the list before Brady, tied with 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson at +1600, shows up.

So, what can we expect from Tom Brady next season?

Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, the list of potential players they’ll be losing to free agency after this year is long, and has some key names on it.

For starters, Rob Gronkowski, who caught two touchdowns in the Super Bowl, is slated to become a free agent. So are Lavonte David, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, Shaquil Barrett, Ndamukong Suh and Leonard Fournette.

The good news is that Tampa Bay has the sixth most cap space going into next season, over $38 million, according to Spotrac. They will retain some of those players, but guys like Fournette, Brown and Gronkowski were on team-friendly one-year deals and will, understandably, be looking for long-term security.

It’s too early to know exactly what the team around Brady will look like, but at +1600, the oddsmakers at DraftKings are implying a 5.9% chance that Tom Brady wins the 2021 NFL MVP.

2021 NFL MVP Award Odds

Player MVP Odds (Click to bet) Implied Probability
Patrick Mahomes +500 16.7%
Aaron Rodgers +800 11.1%
Josh Allen +1300 7.1%
Russell Wilson +1300 7.1%
Matthew Stafford +1500 6.3%
Tom Brady +1600 5.9%
Lamar Jackson +1600 5.9%
Dak Prescott +1700 5.6%
Deshaun Watson +1700 5.6%
Justin Herbert +1800 5.3%
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