Super Bowl Odds: Aaron Rodgers’ Decision to Return Slashes Packers' Odds

Not only are the Packers' odds slashed, but they've been heavily backed in the last 24 hours
Brian Good
Tue, July 27, 11:25 AM EDT

Super Bowl Odds: Aaron Rodgers’ Decision to Return to Green Bay Slashes Packers’ Price

Just how much is Aaron Rodgers worth to the Green Bay Packers when it comes to the on-field success of the team? It’s a question that has been posed many different ways for many different players, but it recently became relevant again as the Packers and Rodgers traded shots in the media over the QB’s request to finish his career somewhere else.

It’s a tough question to answer. But, thanks to the latest Super Bowl odds, we know exactly how much Aaron Rodgers means to the Green Bay Packers and their Super Bowl hopes.

Obviously, the quarterback is the most important position on the field and Aaron Rodgers is one of the best ever, so you can probably guess that once news broke that Aaron Rodgers would be playing for the Packers next season, the Packers Super Bowl odds were immediately slashed, and drastically.

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Super Bowl Odds: Aaron Rodgers Set to Return to Green Bay

As we mentioned earlier, after months of back-and-forth both publically and privately, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers announced that Rodgers would be playing one more season for the Packers.

This is significant for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, as you’ll see in the latest Super Bowl odds, this gives Green Bay one more year to compete for a Super Bowl with Rodgers under center. But, perhaps even more importantly for the franchise is it gives second-year quarterback Jordan Love another season to learn behind Rodgers.

Rodgers kept his word and showed up to training camp on Tuesday, ending all speculation about whether or not we’d ever see him in a Packers uniform again.

So, just how much does Aaron Rodgers mean to the Green Bay Packers Super Bowl odds?

Prior to Monday’s news that Rodgers and the Packers had reached an agreement, the Packers odds to win the Super Bowl this season sat at +2100. At +2100, they had the eight longest odds in the NFL and an implied probability of 4.5%.

Now that we know Rodgers will be playing in Green Bay this season, that +2100 price is gone. As of Tuesday, the best Packers Super Bowl odds you can find are +1500, which implies a 6.3% chance they hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February of 2022.

Team Odds Prior to Monday Implied Probability Odds After Monday Implied Probability
Green Bay Packers +2100 4.5% +1500 6.3%

Super Bowl Betting: Aaron Rodgers Set to Return to Green Bay

So, we know what kind of impact Aaron Rodgers has on the Green Bay Super Bowl odds, but what type of impact has the Rodgers news had on the Super Bowl betting market when it comes to public betting?

Well, he’s turned one of the least bet teams in the market into the leader in the last 24 hours just by agreeing to show up.

Since there started to be rumblings of Aaron Rodgers not wanting to return to Green Bay and their Super Bowl odds began to balloon, Green Bay has been backed by just 2.86% of the betting public when it comes to Super Bowl futures.

But, in the last 24 hours, the Packers have been back more than five times more than any other team in the market.

Since it became known that Rodgers would be returning, 57.69% of all Super Bowl futures bets are backing the Packers. The second most popular team, the favorite Kansas City Chiefs, have seen 11.54% of all bets in that time span back them.

Team Public Betting % Last 24 Hours
Green Bay Packers 57.69%
Kansas City Chiefs 11.54%
Tennessee Titans 7.69%
Chicago Bears 4.38%
Indianapolis Colts 3.32%

Super Bowl Odds

As for the rest of the NFL, the latest Super Bowl odds have stayed largely the same. The Kansas City Chiefs are still the favorite with the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers nipping at their heels.

Instead of being the eight favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Green Bay Packers have jumped the Cleveland Browns (+1700) and are now even with the Baltimore Ravens at +1500.

Team Super Bowl Odds
Kansas City Chiefs +500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +700
Buffalo Bills +1200
Los Angeles Rams +1400
San Francisco 49ers +1400
Green Bay Packers +1500
Baltimore Ravens +1500
Cleveland Browns +1700
Dallas Cowboys +3000
Indianapolis Colts +3000
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