Justin Herbert Odds: Can Chargers QB Win MVP In Just His 2nd Year?

Chargers QB Justin Herbert tries to become the first player in NFL history to win MVP the following season after being named Offensive Rookie of the Year
Tom Viera
Sun, August 15, 7:57 AM EDT

Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert Odds

  • Justin Herbert MVP Odds
  • Justin Herbert Passing Yards Odds
  • Justin Herbert Passing TDs Odds
  • Los Angeles Chargers Super Bowl Odds

Justin Herbert Odds

It took a freak injury to Tyrod Taylor to get rookie Justin Herbert on the field as a rookie, but Justin Herbert quickly seized Los Angeles’ starting quarterback job and didn’t give it back during an awe-inspiring first season. Sophomore quarterback Justin Herbert is looking like a superstar in the making, and there’s no talent shortage among his teammates. The Los Angeles Chargers are in an excellent place for finishing just 7-9 last season because of what Herbert accomplished in his rookie year.

The only issue surrounding Herbert is there was a complete overhaul of the Chargers coaching staff this offseason. Former Rams defensive coordinator Brandon Staley was named as first-time NFL head coach and will look to lead the Chargers back to the playoffs and compete in a division led by the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes and company.

Herbert’s numbers certainly benefited from a very fast-moving and high-volume offense in his rookie year, but new Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi’s past offenses leaned heavily on the pass. Lombardi has been one of the premier quarterbacks coaches in the NFL. In New Orleans, he showcased his coaching abilities helping Drew Brees solidify his legacy as one of the greatest quarterbacks.

The 2020 sixth-overall pick accounted for 36 TDs and 10 INTs in 15 games and was named the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2020. Herbert’s first year was record-setting, which sets the bar high for his second season in the NFL.

Justin Herbert Total Passing TDs Odds

Herbert has a few fantastic weapons in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Keenan Allen returns after his third season of 100 catches. Allen scored 8 TDs matching a career-high, though his 992 yards were his fewest since 2014. Former first-round pick Mike Williams played 11 games in 2020, with 756 yards and 5 TDs on 48 catches. Herbert will also get back one of his go-to weapons Austin Ekeler, who had 933 scrimmage yards in just 10 games last year.

Herbert threw 31 TDs last season in just 15 starts, making the 28.5 total appear low in a season with 17 games on the schedule.

Justin Herbert total TD passes are set at 28.5 (Over -120) 

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Odds

Herbert was sacked 32 times last season. As a result, the Chargers went out and acquired two guards in Oday Aboushi and Matt Feiler while also picking up first-team All-Pro center Corey Linsley to anchor the group and protect Herbert.

Herbert’s numbers certainly benefited from a very fast-moving and high-volume offense, but new OC Joe Lombardi’s past offenses leaned heavily on the pass. As a rookie, Herbert nearly reached the total set by oddsmakers this year of 4,450.5 (-115) when he passed for 4,336 yards.

Justin Herbert total passing yards is set at 4,450.5 (Over -115)

Herbert is listed among the favorites to lead the NFL in passing yards. He is listed 5th along with Matt Ryan.

Justin Herbert to lead the NFL in passing yards is set at +1400 

Justin Herbert MVP Odds

The NFL MVP Award is a quarterback award at this point. The last non-quarterback to win the award was Adrian Peterson in 2012. The award has been given to a non-quarterback only two more times over the previous 20 seasons in 2005 and 2006. All 18 quarterbacks who’ve won the award in the last 20 years led their teams to the playoffs, so if Herbert can bring the Chargers back to relevance and into the postseason, his MVP odds will shorten!

One year removed from winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, Herbert is priced within the top 10 of all favorites to win NFL MVP in 2021. Oddsmakers have Herbert priced at +2200 just ahead of Kyler Murray and slotted in behind Russell Wilson.

Justin Herberts odds to win NFL MVP in 2021 are set at +2,200. 

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QB Justin Herbert MVP Odds & Props

Player prop Odds to win Implied Probability
MVP +2200 4.3%
Passing Leader +1400 6.7%
Passing Yards Total 4,450.5 (Over -115) 53.5%
Passing TD Total 28.5 (Over -120) 54.5%

Justin Herbert 2020 Passing Stats

CMP ATT CMP% YDS AVG TD INT LNG RTG
396 595 66.6 4,336 7.3 31 10 72 98.3

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Los Angeles Chargers Super Bowl Odds

Futures Bet Odds Implied Probability
Super Bowl +3300 2.9%
To Win Conference +1700 5.6%
To Win Division +600 14.3%
To Make Playoffs Yes +135/ No -154 Yes 42.6%/ No 60.6%
Season Win Total O/U @William Hill O 9 (-110) U 9 (-110)
@FanDuel U 9.5 (-135) O 9.5 (+110)
U 52.4% O 52.4%
U 57.4% O 47.6%

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