Aaron Jones Odds: Jones A Good Value NFL MVP Pick

If you're looking for an under-the-radar NFL MVP pick, Aaron Jones just may be your guy. Check out a breakdown of his futures and props odds for this NFL season.
Brian Good
Wed, August 18, 1:48 PM EDT

Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones Odds

  • Aaron Jones MVP Odds
  • Aaron Jones Rushing Leader Odds
  • Aaron Jones Rushing TD Odds

Aaron Jones Odds

We’re way past the days of a bruising, workhorse running back leading an offense down the field on 10 carries behind a massive offensive line, unless you root for the Tennessee Titans. The new-age running back is elusive, quick and an efficient runner but also explosive catching the ball out of the backfield.

There are few running backs in the NFL better at both running the ball and catching the ball than Green Bay’s Aaron Jones.

Just how much does Aaron Jones mean to the Packers and their offensive units? In the past, we’ve seen one of the greatest QBs of all time, Aaron Rodgers, campaigning for Jones to be considered as an MVP candidate.

Opposing teams aren’t going to stack the box against Rodgers and Davante Adams, so Aaron Jones usually has a ton of running room in from of him and space to make things happen. Jones is on the smaller side at 5-foot-9 but he weighs in at almost 210 pounds.

With the Packers looking to make one last Super Bowl push in what looks to be Rodgers’, and Adams’, last stint with the team, you can expect them to rely heavily on their difference maker out of the backfield in both the run and pass game.

So, let’s check out some of Aaron Jones’ odds for the 2021-2022 NFL season.

Aaron Jones Total Rushing TDs Odds

For a dual-threat back that is averaging 11 rushing touchdowns per season over the past three years, Aaron Jones’ rushing touchdown prop is set kind of low. Jones has had at least nine rushing touchdowns in the last two seasons, including 16 in 2019.

There are some reasons to believe that Jones’ carries, and overall touches, could go down this season. First and foremost is the fact that the Packers, despite having one of the best running backs in the NFL and much more glaring holes all over their roster, continue to draft running backs.

AJ Dillon is a big, punishing back and will 100% steal goal line carries away from Jones and vulture away a few touchdowns. Now, add rookie Kylin Hill, formerly of Mississippi State, into the mix and you see why oddsmakers may not be so eager to expect big things from Jones this season when it comes to getting in the end zone.

Aaron Jones total rushing TDs are set at 9 (-110)

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Odds

Aaron Jones total rushing yards is set at 1,050.5 (Over +100)

Aaron Jones is one of 12 NFL running backs who have a rushing prop set at over 1,000 yards for the 2021-2022 season. Jones has broken the 1,000-yard mark in two straight years and if they just featured him as the main back in this offense, I’m sure he’d do it again. But, how much will AJ Dillon and Kylin Hill eat into his carries.

Remember, the Packers reach on Dillon in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft and while Hill was a seventh round pick this year, he still brings competition. The main worry is obviously Dillon. With his prop set at 690.5 yards, do we really expect the Packers to rush the ball enough times to get them both to hit that? Probably not.

Aaron Jones to lead the NFL in rushing yards @ +2200

Aaron Jones MVP Odds

Aaron Jones isn’t the most likely choice on the Packers to win MVP this season. Heck, he’s not even the most likely Aaron on Green Bay to take home the award. But we know that his quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, has campaigned for him to win the award in the past.

Jones’ odds to win the NFL MVP currently sit at +20000 or 200/1 and if he’s healthy you can expect to see big weeks from him early in the season immediately drive that price down.

Running backs don’t usually win MVP, but if you’re looking for a back to bet on, and the price for guys like Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey are a little too short for your liking, Aaron Jones at +20000 presents real value.

Aaron Jones MVP odds set at +20000

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RB Aaron Jones MVP Odds & Props

Player prop Odds to win Implied Probability
MVP +20000 0.5%
Rushing Leader +2200 4.3%
Rushing Yards Total 1,050.5 (Over +100) 50%
Rushing TD Total 9 (Over -110) 53.5%

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Green Bay Packers Super Bowl Odds

Futures Bet Odds Implied Probability
Super Bowl +1500 2.9%
To Win Conference +850 5.6%
To Win Division -145 14.3%
To Make Playoffs Yes -230/ No +450 Yes 42.6%/ No 60.6%
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