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New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns Week 10 Betting Odds, Expert Picks, and Preview

Beware of the public underdog: 62% of Moneyline tickets are backing the Browns ahead of critical AFC matchup. Henry John previews what we can expect this Sunday.
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New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns Week 10 Betting Odds, Expert Picks, and Preview

Perhaps the most critical NFL betting matchup on the Week 10 slate is this AFC battle between the Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots. While the two teams play in different divisions, this head-to-head meeting could prove massive when it comes to standings tiebreakers in potential playoff scenarios down the road. Foxborough will be rocking on Sunday as the Patriots try to win their fifth straight game. The NFL betting odds do favor the home team ahead of this Browns vs Patriots matchup. However, it is one of the shortest point spreads on the board this week.

Patriots vs. Browns Week 10 NFL Betting Odds, Picks, and Preview

Cleveland Browns (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) at New England Patriots (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS)

Date: Sunday, November 14, 2021Start Time: 1 PM ESTLocation: Gillette Stadium — Foxborough, MATV Coverage: CBS

Patriots vs. Browns Odds

Cleveland Browns Preview

The Browns had the football for less than 25 minutes in their AFC North rivalry game last week against the Cincinnati Bengals. It proved not to matter one bit. Cleveland’s defense came up with three turnovers and five sacks in an impressive performance to power the Browns to a blowout win on the road. No play was bigger than a 99-yard interception return for a score by corner Denzel Ward. Sharp NFL betting analysts predicted before the game that the Browns’ star-studded pass rush would create problems for the poor Bengals’ offensive line. Myles Garrett came through with 1.5 sacks while corner Troy Hill also had a pair. In hindsight, the Browns’ secondary rose to the occasion in a big way on Sunday. 

While it wasn’t necessarily a splashy performance offensively, the Browns were extremely efficient in their first game since releasing the disgruntled Odell Beckham Jr. RB Nick Chubb carried the bulk of the load, turning 14 carries into 137 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Baker Mayfield also threw a pair of TD strikes, including a bomb to Donovan Peoples-Jones. Many believe the second-year pro to be Beckham’s replacement in the lineup moving forward. That being said, the run game remains Cleveland’s identity on offense. Unfortunately, a certain virus might just keep Chubb sidelined for Sunday’s massive NFL betting matchup in Foxborough.

New England Patriots Preview

The Patriots continued to roll last week in a dominant road win over the Carolina Panthers. In today’s NFL, it’s rare to see a team win going away despite failing to total 300 yards offensively. New England did just that in Week 9 thanks to a defensive clinic. Bill Belichick’s squadron throttled a young quarterback for the second straight week. This time, the victim was an all-too-familiar foe in Sam Darnold. J.C. Jackson ran one of his two interceptions back for a touchdown. Jamie Collins also intercepted Darnold giving the Patriots multiple INTs for the third straight game. The defense’s 13 total interceptions on the season lead the league.

Although they emerged victorious as short NFL betting road favorites last Sunday, the victory did come at a cost. The Patriots lost both lead RB Damien Harris and rookie backup Rhamondre Stevenson to head injuries. The status of both players remains unclear for Week 10 at the time of writing. If both are ruled out, expect the baton to simply be passed further down the depth chart. Pass-catching back Brandon Bolden has carved out a solid role in recent weeks while J.J. Taylor would be the next man up as far as a between-the-tackles runner. It was a very quiet game for Mac Jones and New England’s passing attack against Carolina. While he did fall victim to an INT courtesy of former Patriot Stephon Gilmore, Jones also connected with Hunter Henry for a touchdown pass.

Patriots vs. Browns Betting Odds and Line Movement

The following table displays the best Browns at Patriots NFL betting odds and lines available in the market.

TeamMoneylineML Implied Win ProbabilitySpreadTotal
Browns+10648.5%+1.5 (-110)O 45.5 (-105)
Patriots-12154.8%-1.5 (-108)U 45.5 (-110)

Patriots vs. Browns Odds

Oddsmakers initially opened this game at Patriots -3. Betting action following the Browns’ impressive win last week has likely been a big factor behind the move down to the current line of 1.5. The total has only ticked up one point thus far after opening at 44.5. It should also be noted that the Browns are shaping up to be a public NFL betting dog early in the week. 55% of spread bets and a whopping 68% of moneyline tickets are on Cleveland at the time of writing.

Patriots vs. Browns Betting Picks and Prediction

Fans and bettors alike should brace themselves for some hard-hitting football in Sunday’s Browns vs Patriots showdown. Both of these teams pride themselves on running the ball and playing tough defense. Of the two quarterbacks, Mac Jones might actually be more likely to surprise on Sunday given the shaky Cleveland secondary. That being said, expect the Patriots to lean on the run game whenever possible, even if that means playing to the Browns’ defensive strength.

In a way, it isn’t a surprise to see the public flocking to bet on the Browns after their dominant win over the Bengals. This comes one week after no one wanted anything to do with Cleveland following a home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Funny how the NFL betting carousel just continues to go round and round.

The Patriots are starting to garner both attention and respect from oddsmakers and the betting market. After starting out 0-4 at Gillette Stadium, the Patriots finally won on their home field three weeks ago. They are one of just four teams to rank in the top-10 in both scoring offense and defense. While there is some concern about slowing down the Browns’ rushing attack, that will certainly be easier if Nick Chubb is not available due to the virus. Trusting Baker Mayfield to solve Bill Belichick’s defense is just asking for trouble.

Patriots vs. Browns NFL Betting Picks: Patriots -1.5 (-108)


Henry has had a passion for sports that few can match for as long as he can remember. What started out as a five-year-old taking interest in the New York Jets and their green jerseys has since become a full-fledged career as a writer and sports betting analyst. His coverage primarily includes the NFL, MLB, NBA, NASCAR, college football, and college basketball. In 2020, he ranked among the top-10 most accurate experts ATS in the BettingPros NFL season contest. You can follow Henry’s sports work on Twitter and other social media platforms @HankTimeSports.


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