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NFL MVP Power Rankings: Breaking Down the Field After Week 10

NFL MVP power rankings and analysis from Brett Oswalt. Brett breaks down the latest NFL MVP odds and where the potential winners sit in his power rankings
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NFL MVP Power Rankings: Breaking Down the Field After Week 10

NFL MVP Odds - Two Top Dogs

Latest NFL MVP odds

Josh Allen (+375)

In Weeks 9 and 10, Allen didn’t do all that much to pad the stats in two soft matchups with the Jaguars and Jets. He struggled mightily in a low-scoring loss to Jacksonville, throwing for 264 yards but doing so absent a touchdown and with two interceptions. Against the Jets, he fared much better, as he three for 366 yards and 2 touchdowns to a single pick. The blowout win is a plus for his MVP candidacy, but Allen just feels like he’s leaving some opportunities to separate on the table. At most sportsbooks his odds have stayed around +200 and +250, which would be a slight overpay by comparison. However, his +375 odds at FOX Bet look mighty juicy because of the Bills’ overall success not to mention primetime spots against the Saints and Patriots on the horizon.

Tom Brady (+400)

If you’re going off of “what have you done for me lately”, Brady probably isn’t the guy for you either. The three-time MVP is a loser of two straight road games against the Saints and Football Team. Although he accounted for 375 yards and 4 scores in the former, he took three sacks and had two interceptions. In the latter, he added another two picks and was held to 220 yards against a team that’s struggled to defend the pass this season. Still, the 44-year-old has the narrative and a league-high 27 passing touchdowns at his back.

Three Inconsistent Challengers

Dak Prescott (+900)

After what now seems like a blip on the radar against the Broncos, Prescott and his Dallas Cowboys are back to their winning ways – and in dominant fashion. In what was expected to be a close, high-scoring game versus the Falcons, the Cowboys blew them out by a score of 43-3 with Prescott turning in 296 passing yards and 3 total scores in a controlling effort. To this point, Dak has settled in at a career-best 8.22 adjusted net yards per attempt as the leader of Football Outsiders’ second-most efficient pass offense. A week after the quarterback completed less than 50% of his passes and threw an interception in a third straight game, it's no wonder oddsmakers are leaving themselves open to some value.

Matthew Stafford (+900)

Stafford’s longest odds are equal to Prescott’s, but his shortest odds (+700) trail behind at most books, and for good reason. Over the last two games, the Rams’ veteran signal caller has thrown twice as many interceptions (4) as touchdowns (2), taken seven sacks and failed to have his team tally more than 16 points in either loss. He’s going to require a massive bounce-back to keep him from falling any further in the pecking order, though that will have to wait until after the team’s bye week when they’ll square off with the Packers at Lambeau Field.

Aaron Rodgers (+1100)

Rodgers will be on the other side of the NFC showdown in the frozen tundra, and he too is in need of a signature moment to improve his standing among the most likely MVP winners. In addition to sitting out Week 9, his Week 10 performance consisted of zero touchdowns, an interception and 62% completion percentage. The Pack are on a winning streak with Rodgers, which could go a long way considering the narrative that this might be his final run in Green Bay.

For up-to-the-second NFL odds from across the league, click here

Two Fallers

Kyler Murray (+1600)

Among the field of top seven guys, Murray is the only player that has failed to play a single game since Week 8. His nagging ankle injury has kept him out, and over that two-game stretch his Cardinals are 1-1 behind Colt McCoy. This could all be in the interest of long-term gains, in the form of a playoff push, yet it has put a damper on what was a sterling resume early on this season. Murray was present at the media portion of Wednesday’s practice, meaning there is a chance for him to get back out there Sunday against Seattle.

Lamar Jackson (+1600)

Technically, since Week 8 Jackson’s odds have shortened up, but he’s still on the outside of the top five looking in. While he popped off the tune of 386 total yards and 3 passing scores in a victory over the Vikings, the 24-year-old regressed to total less than 300 total yards along with a pick in a disappointing loss to the Dolphins. And his odds should only fall as a result of the tough schedule ahead. Jackson and the Ravens will face the Steelers twice, Rams once and Packers once over the final eight games.

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Two Great Values

Patrick Mahomes (+5000)

Unlike his fellow signal callers, Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs have returned to their winning ways of late. Victors in three consecutive matchups, the Chiefs find themselves atop the AFC West after starting out 3-4. But in Week 10 Mahomes re-announced his candidacy for the hardware. In his team’s 41-10 win over the Raiders, the 2018 MVP three for more than 400 yards and 5 touchdowns. Just like that, he’s second in the league in both passing yards and passing touchdowns. Mind you, he was at +4000 odds a mere two weeks ago.

Cooper Kupp (+15000)

Kupp is still the non-quarterback darkhorse I’d want to hitch my proverbial money wagon to. Though we’ve seen Stafford have his ups and downs, Kupp has been the image of consistency and productivity. His 84 receptions lead the league, and he’s now eclipsed 1,100 yards through just 10 games. On three occasions, he’s managed double-digit catches, with 11 in each of the last two games. Kupp has gone without a touchdown for two straight weeks, but he’s likely to get more opportunities with Robert Woods out of the lineup injured. At this ridiculous pace, who’s to deny his chances of overcoming the slew of quarterbacks in a fairly wide-open race?


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