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NFL MVP Power Rankings: Breaking Down the Field After Week 11

After 11 weeks of the NFL season, Brett Oswalt takes a look at the NFL MVP race and who is at the top.
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NFL MVP Power Rankings: Breaking Down the Field After Week 11

A Clear Top Two

Tom Brady (+300)

Brady has now officially taken over the top spot from Josh Allen. He and the Buccaneers got fully back on track with Monday’s 30-10 win over the Giants, a game in which the three-time MVP threw for 307 yards and another pair of touchdowns. On the year, he’s now tossed a league-best 29 touchdowns and is on pace for 49 passing scores. In Brady’s three other MVP runs he was able to account for 50, 36 and 32 touchdowns through the air.

Josh Allen (+600)

The Bills didn’t fare so well this week, and that may be putting it lightly. At home, Allen and company struggled to the tune of a 41-15 loss at the hand of the Colts. The passing game produced just 209 yards and 2 touchdowns with 2 picks to Allen’s unfortunate credit. He was a non-factor on the ground, and for the second time in three weeks failed to show he can lead the Bills in comeback mode. With Brady likely to benefit from the narrative, Allen will need a couple big games to leapfrog the elder statesman by season’s end.

A Busy Second Tier

Dak Prescott (+1000)

All three quarterbacks in last week’s second tier appear here again, but the thing is all three of them moved down by exactly 100, and two are now at +1000. That means there is more inherent value, but I wouldn’t be so quick to jump at the opportunity. Prescott’s roll was once again slowed in a low-scoring loss to the Chiefs, as he yielded just 216 yards alongside two picks and five sacks. He’ll have a chance to bounce back against the Raiders in Week 12, so even with his struggles we could see him separate from the others here in time.

Matthew Stafford (+1000)

Stafford was on bye this past week, but with the way Prescott’s play and game played out it’s not as big of a deal as far as keeping his place in the pecking order. This week, he and the Rams will be features against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, so from a popularity perspective he could have a chance to make a move. I wouldn’t count on it, though, given Green Bay’s recent defensive play prior to Week 11.

Aaron Rodgers (+1200)

Rodgers will aim to make the same mark pitted up against Stafford and the star-studded L.A. defense. He’ll have to combat Donald, Ramsey and – now – Von Miller but will do so on his own turf. If he’s able to mount an efficient game and a win, that would go a long way. For now, following a high-scoring loss to the rival Vikings, he just falls into the mix at these odds.

Justin Herbert (+1200)

Here comes Herbert. The young, big-armed quarterback has re-entered his name into the running for MVP after absolutely popping off in a close victory over Pittsburgh. Against the very solid Steelers defense, he turned 30 completions into 382 yards, 3 touchdowns and another 90 yards on the ground. Herbert is on pace to surpass last year’s rushing total all while winning just as many games to this point, thanks in part to his five fourth-quarter comebacks.

Patrick Mahomes (+1200)

Speaking of truly dynamic quarterbacks, Mahomes continues to rise up the board. However, this week’s box score might not be the culprit. The win over Dallas was a big positive, but the K.C. quarterback was limited to 260 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception not to mention very little on the ground. The tough Denver defense is up next, but after that Mahomes will have his chances to make good on these odds.

Absent Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray (+1600)

Murray has been out since Week 8 due to an ankle injury. He was off to a shot start, and because of that saw his odds improve to better than half his current value, but it would be hard to see him earning the award with the potential to only play 14 of 17 games. There won’t be much to update next week, either, as the Cardinals are on bye for Week 12.

Lamar Jackson (+1600)

Jackson just recently joined Murray among those candidates falling off because of missed games. The Ravens’ signal caller came down with a bad virus and was forced to miss this week’s game, which resulted in a Baltimore win behind backup Tyler Huntley. For a quarterback with a very mediocre 14-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio, Jackson would need to go full cyclone mode down the stretch if he wants a shot at the unlikely win.

Emerging Darkhorses

Jonathan Taylor (+2500)

Taylor is putting together a season reminiscent of Derrick Henry’s 2020 campaign. Just a year ago, the star Titans back rushed for more than 2,000 yards in route to 17 rushing scores at a clip of 5.4 yards per carry. Through 11 games, or roughly 65% of the season, the Colts’ sophomore has more than 1,100 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground, which over the full season would amount to 1,700 yards and 20 touchdowns – not including what he contributes through the air. Taylor could wind up with an awesome statistical season, but it remains to be seen if a running back could overcome the quarterback position. After all, Henry was not in the running for MVP but was atop the list for Offensive Player of the Year.

Kirk Cousins (+20000)

Cousins has the natural advantage of being a quarterback. He’s also on a 5-5 Vikings team that could creep into the playoffs following this week’s massive win over the Packers. He’s simply flying way too far under the radar, all things considered. Among passers, he is first in interception rate (0.5%), seventh in passing yards and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns. He’s thrown 21 touchdowns to 2 interceptions and has four 100-yard performances to his credit. For all Cousins’ efficiency, the Vikings are second in pass DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. If they’re able to build on their current two-game win streak there’s no reason Cousins won’t be better than +10000 odds anytime soon.


Tom Brady+300
Josh Allen+650
Dak Prescott+1000
Matthew Stafford+1000
Aaron Rodgers+1200
Justin Herbert+1200
Patrick Mahomes+1200
Kyler Murray+1400
Lamar Jackson+1600
Jonathan Taylor+2500

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