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NFL Thanksgiving Picks: 10 Most Popular Bets & Prop Bets

With three games today, Matt O'Leary shares the public's favorite plays from today.
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If you’re looking for some action to place for Thanksgiving today, well you’ve come to the right place. We’re blessed with a full slate of games starting with the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears at 12:30 PM ET here on the east coast.

Jared Goff is expected to start for the Lions today but will it be enough to get them their first win? As for the second window, we have the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders have lost three in a row, will they bounce back today or will the high octane Cowboys offense be too much?

Finally, the Buffalo Bills are traveling to New Orleans to close out the evening. It’s been an up and down year for them and the Saints are without Alvin Kamara so this one could be an interesting one as well.

Today, we’ll take a look at the most popular plays from each game and some popular prop bets.

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Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

Bears -3

Bears -357%57%

The public tends to lean towards Chicago today, and while Detriot has been better against the spread this year it’s easy to see why Chicago is the play. Detroit has looked competent the last two weeks, a third week in a row of solid play sounds like a stretch and especially when you consider the Bears likelihood to play conservatively with Andy Dalton at the helm, the Bears should be able to run the ball well against this Detroit defense.

Under 41.5

Under 41.570%65%

I know 41.5 seems low but this one might not eclipse 35 combined points. Neither of these offenses are any good as the Bears are 29th in offense with the Lions 30th in the league in scoring. Life may be too short to bet the under but today, it’s a must-play.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys -7.5

Cowboys -7/575%61%

The money is coming in on Dallas and after a down week last week a bounce-back sounds in order for this Cowboys offense. It’s almost unAmerican to bet against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Plus, the Las Vegas Raiders are in a free fall losing three in a row and five of their last seven.

Under 51.5

Under 51.551%52%

This one is pretty split and you can probably make a case for either play here. Both Dallas and Las Vegas are 5-5 to the over this year, so it’s really a coin flip. I’ll tell you what, pull the wishbone to decide which play you want to get in on this week.

Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints

Bills -6

Bills -679%78%

Buffalo has struggled lately but they hold a 5-4-1 record against the spread on the season. While I am a tad concerned about the Bills offense, I think the strong defense going against a backup quarterback is what puts them over the edge. Buffalo is also covering at a 60 percent clip on the road this year.

Over 45.5

Over 45.557%62%

I was surprised to see the total set at this mark, I thought it would be a touch higher. New Orleans is actually the third-best team in the league at hitting the over at 60 percent, and like most of the league, the Buffalo Bills are 50 percent. If the Bills offense bounces back to where we know it can then I’m not sure how the over doesn’t hit tonight.

Thanksgiving Prop Plays

Tony Pollard over 36.5 rushing yards (-110)

Over the past two weeks, Tony Pollard has been much more involved in the offense. He has 42 and 50 yards in those two games and he’s gone over this 36.5 mark in all but three games that he’s played this season.

Kenyan Drake over 11.5 receiving yards (-130)

In three of the last five games, Kenyan Drake has cleared 11.5 receiving yards. He’s gotten his fair share of targets too over this span. With just two catches he should be able to get over this mark of 11.5 yards.

Dak Prescott under 275.5 passing yards (-115)

The Raiders defense has actually been pretty solid against the pass this year. On the season they’re allowing just 220.8 yards per game and over the last three games that number is actually 216.3.

Zack Moss under 33.5 rushing + receiving yards (-130)

Zack Moss’ usage is basically nonexistent. Last week he had five combined yards, the wee before, 27, and three weeks ago he had 24. For as good as the offense is for Buffalo, they just don’t utilize their running backs very much.


OddsChecker sports writer Matt O'Leary brings experience sports betting advice to the OC staff. You may recognize Matt from his popular New York Jets youtube channel, but his vast knowledge of sports and betting goes well past the boundaries of New York.


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