NFL MVP Power Rankings: Breaking Down the Field After Week 12

After Week 12, we take a look at the NFL MVP race and give you the best value plays, sleepers, and overrated players off of the top of the list by NFL expert Brett Oswalt.
Brett Oswalt |
Thu, December 2, 12:31 PM EST | 5 min read
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NFL MVP Power Rankings: Breaking Down the Field After Week 12

The Top Two Becomes the Top Three

Tom Brady (+350) 

Brady’s odds haven’t moved, and because of that, he remains atop the list of likely MVP candidates. He and his Buccaneers have now reeled off back-to-back wins, but their Week 11 victory over the streaking Colts was very impressive despite Brady’s just OK performance. On his 34 attempts, he was only able to manage 226 yards and a score alongside an interception. However, when all is said and done, it’s the overall numbers and team success that have him in the top spot. Despite some low-producing games of late, he’s totaled more than 3,400 yards and a league-leading 30 touchdowns for the 8-3 Bucs. 

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Josh Allen (+550) 

This week, Allen has improved his betting odds and gained considerable ground on Brady, and to anyone who put down the turkey to watch on Thanksgiving night, that should come as no surprise. In a 25-point rout of the Saints, the Buffalo quarterback completed 82 percent of his passes for 260 yards and four passing scores, as well as 43 rushing yards on the ground. Not only does that bring the Bills’ record to 7-4, but Allen has brought his season-long totals to 3,071 passing yards and 25 touchdowns – tied for third among all passers. Key showdowns with the Patriots and Buccaneers loom in Weeks 13 and 14. 

Aaron Rodgers (+700) 

Rodgers and the Packers are headed into a Week 13 bye, but that hasn’t stopped him from playing his way into the top three after being listed at +1200 odds a week ago. Two of the past three weeks have resulted in Green Bay wins, and in the process, the three-time MVP has averaged north of 300 passing yards with 6 touchdowns to 1 interception. He even added a masterful pump-and-go rushing score this past week. So look out, everyone – Rodgers is heating up! 

On The Fringe

Patrick Mahomes (+1000) 

On the outside looking in, at exactly 100/1 odds, Mahomes is right on the cusp of being in that elite tier. To get him in this position, he followed up a massive stat line with just a so-so performance in a big win over the Cowboys before taking a breather during the bye. He and the streaking Chiefs will take on Denver at home this week, in what might prove to be another tough statistical game, but one that K.C. emerges victorious could prove promising for his MVP odds. Among the top five-to-nine names, he seems like the best value to roll with, particularly at these odds over at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Falling Off 

Kyler Murray (+1300) 

Murray has not shown his face on a football field in five weeks, yet his odds have improved over a week. But that might be more to do with his impending return, as Murray is “hopeful” he’ll be back with the extra time off and has logged limited practice time of late. It would be great to see him back out there racking up stats, but matchups with the Bears and Rams could limit his upside in the coming weeks. 

Dak Prescott (+1400) 

Another week, another marquee matchup, and another loss for Dak and the Cowboys. Despite a solid offensive effort, in which Prescott completed 32 of 47 passes for 375 yards and 2 touchdowns, they came up short in a three-point loss to the Rams. He is working on a personal best with 22 touchdowns through 10 games to date, and his 7.52 adjusted net yards per attempt are fifth in the league. If anything, the Cowboys’ success atop the NFC East could carry him to a top-three finish, but the way things are going, he’s unlikely to pull an upset and take the award. 

Lamar Jackson (+1600) 

While Jackson’s odds have gone unchanged, the betting public’s perspective has to have shifted after this week’s performance. Baltimore came out with another win, but the dynamic quarterback turned the ball over four times up against 165 yards (another 68 rushing) and only one passing score. It was a defensive win by most measures. Over the next six weeks, he’s really going to have to turn it on if he wants serious consideration for his second MVP honor. 

Matthew Stafford (+1600) 

Stafford is falling and falling hard. Last week, he was tied for third at +1000, but since then, he’s lost his third straight game and notched his fifth interception in that same span. On the upside, he threw for three touchdowns and more than 300 yards, but it’s impossible to ignore his role in the Rams’ loss by completing just 55% of his passes and turning the ball over on two occasions. He’ll aim to rebound in the stat column Sunday against Jacksonville. 

Rising Values 

Derek Carr (+6600) 

Don’t look now, but the league leader in passing yards is none other than Derek Carr. The Raiders’ quarterback has had a true breakout year of sorts, as he’s now eclipsed 3,400 passing yards in 11 games. His team is 6-5 amidst all the off-the-field turmoil, and it’s mainly because of his leadership. They most recently bested the Cowboys on the back of Carr’s sixth 300-yard game of the year. His 19 touchdowns are a little low, as shown by his below-average 4.1% touchdown rate, so there’s room for him to improve his standing. Of course, plays like this will help.

Mac Jones (+10000) 

In the history of the award, there’s only been one rookie (Jim Brown) ever to win the award. But who’s saying Jones couldn’t be the first rookie quarterback to do it? Following his slow start to the season, Jones’ development has picked up pace during the team’s current six-game winning streak. Over this time, he’s managed nine touchdowns to two interceptions, and all on a 69% completion percentage and an average passer rating just south of 105. So it’s not that farfetched. 

Top 10 NFL MVP Odds

PlayerOdds
Tom Brady+350
Josh Allen+550
Aaron Rodgers+700
Patrick Mahomes+1000
Kyler Murray+1300
Dak Prescott+1400
Lamar Jackson+1600
Matthew Stafford+1600
Justin Herbert+2000
Jonathan Taylor+2300

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