AFC East Division Odds: The Buffalo Bills Sit as Overwhelming Favorites with Two Weeks Left

AFC East Division Odds: The Buffalo Bills Sit as Overwhelming Favorites with Two Weeks Left

It was no secret that a whole lot was riding on this past Sunday’s matchup between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. The winner was guaranteed to have the inside track to winning the AFC East Division. After pulling out a 33-21 upset win on the road, the Bills have regained the top spot in the division with just two weeks remaining in the regular season. Buffalo is once again a heavy NFL betting favorite when it comes to the AFC East Division odds.

Of course, many analysts believed the Bills to be about as sure of a division bet as could be before the season began. However, Bill Belichick and the Patriots put together a seven-game winning streak that culminated with a road win over the Bills back in early December. Suddenly, the AFC East Division odds flipped in a big way. Just two weeks ago, one would have had to lay $5 on New England to capture the division crown.

To the Bills’ credit, they were able to turn the tables on their rivals three weeks later in Foxborough. Quarterback Josh Allen delivered the type of clutch performance that the Bills hoped he would when they inked him to a high-priced contract extension in the offseason. Not only did he throw for over 300 yards and three scores but he also led Buffalo in rushing yards. The Bills’ defense got the better of rookie Pats’ QB, Mac Jones, intercepting him twice.

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As seen in the table above, both Buffalo and New England now sit with identical 9-6 win-loss records. However, the Bills get the nod as a result of having the better win percentage within the AFC East Division. Who would have thought that the Patriots’ one-point loss to the Miami Dolphins back in Week 1 would have such a monumental impact on the final division standings?

Speaking of Miami, the Dolphins are still on the AFC East Division odds board themselves. Following their Week 1 win over New England, the Dolphins proceeded to lose seven straight games. Since then, Brian Flores’ team has rattled off a seven-game winning streak to resurface above .500 at 8-7. While a Wild Card berth is the much more likely path into the postseason, Miami is still not mathematically out of the division race.

Breaking Down AFC East Division Odds and Clinch Scenarios

As previously mentioned, the leverage that the Bills have as a result of Sunday’s win is enormous. Not only does Buffalo control its own destiny when it comes to winning the AFC East Division, but it also has two home games remaining against sub-.500 teams. As a result, the Bills sit as massive betting favorites atop the AFC East Division odds ahead of Week 17.

Before we dive into specific clinch scenarios, let’s look at the remaining schedules for each team:

BUF — vs ATL, vs NYJ

NE — vs JAX, @ MIA

MIA — @ TEN, vs NE

For the Bills to win the division, all they have to do is win each of their final two games against the Falcons and Jets. 

Meanwhile, the Patriots would need to beat both the Jaguars and Dolphins in their final two games AND have the Bills lose one game in order to regain the AFC East Division lead. 

As for the Dolphins, well, they need a virtual miracle. In addition to winning out, Miami would also need the Bills to lose both of their remaining games. Because Buffalo beat Miami twice already this season, the Bills would have the tiebreaker in the event of a tie. On the bright side, the Dolphins don’t have to worry about the outcome of the Patriots’ Week 17 game against the worst team in football since they play them in the season finale. As the Dolphins already beat New England once this season, they would earn a tiebreaker by winning the Week 18 matchup between the teams.

Unless some unexpected injury or virus-related news impacts the Bills down the stretch, the AFC East Division is clearly theirs to lose. Meanwhile, the regular-season finale between the Patriots and Dolphins could carry massive playoff implications beyond the division crown.

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