5 Most Popular Bets and Prop Bets for the Wild Card Round: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
5 Most Popular Bets and Prop Bets for the Wild Card Round: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
What better way to close out the first day of the NFL Playoffs than with a frigid matchup between two bitter AFC East rivals?
It looks like this one will not only have single-digit temps, but the wind could also be a factor. Everyone remembers when these two teams met and the Patriots just ran the ball down the Bills' throat. Mac Jones threw it one time and the Pats got out of Buffalo with a win. But what can we expect this time around?
In order to find out, we're taking a look at what people are betting on with the five most popular picks and player props for the Patriots vs. Bills on Saturday night.
Click here for Bills vs. Patriots odds
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Popular Bets
Bills -4.5
The public is backing the home team in the nightcap on Saturday as the Pats travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills. I'm a little surprised to see this since the Patriots won outright last time they played in Buffalo, but the Patriots also haven't looked like themselves recently. I expect Mac Jones to struggle tonight and the Bills to cover this number and so does most of the betting public.
| Bet | Bet % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|
| Bills -4.5 | 56% | 61% |
Under 43.5
This is an interesting play here. As I mentioned at the start, the weather in Buffalo is supposed to be miserable on Saturday night. We're talking temperatures close to 0 degrees and a wind that will only complicate things. BUT, while the majority of bets is definitely on the under, the majority of money is firmly on the over. To me, that indicates sharp money is on the over and I'll be fading the public on this one.
| Bet | Bet % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|
| Under 43.5 | 57% | 43% |
Josh Allen first TD scorer @ +1200 (Bet $100 to win $1200)
I covered this in the Raiders vs. Bengals popular bets piece, but I'm not a fan of first TD bets. There is too much that can go wrong with them. Still, that doesn't stop people from betting on them. Josh Allen to score the first TD of the game is the most popular prop bet in this one. Remember, he can't throw the TD. He has to run it in for this one to cash.
Damien Harris anytime TD scorer @ +120 (Bet $100 to win $120)
Another prop I don't love. I think the Pats will run the ball a lot, but Bill Bellichick is evil when it comes to running back usage. He loves to rotate guys in and out and you could easily miss your opportunity with Harris on the sideline taking a breather. Having said that, if you're going to bet on a Pats RB this is the one to back for sure.
Mac Jones under 18.5 completions @ -105 (Bet $100 to win $95.24)
This one has got to come from the last time these two teams met in Buffalo and the Patriots' QB threw the ball a whopping one time. The issue is, if the Patriots get behind early they are going to need to throw the football to get back into it. I think the Pats have done a good job limiting the number of times Jones has dropped back this season. But, with the season on the line, it may be time to let him loose if they find themselves losing in the first half.