Raiders Super Bowl Odds: How the Davante Adams Trade Impacts the AFC West
Raiders Super Bowl Odds: How the Davante Adams Trade Impacts the AFC West
Even on the biggest day of the March Madness tournament, the NFL took center stage with a blockbuster trade. After refusing to play on the franchise tag, the Packers sent Davante Adams to Vegas for a 2022 first and second-round pick.
The AFC West has quickly become the best division in football, taking over the title from the NFC West who held it over the past couple of years. With Russell Wilson now in Denver, and obviously Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert manning the other two teams in the division, how does this trade impact the Raiders Super Bowl and AFC West odds? Let's take a look.
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Raiders Super Bowl Odds
| Odds | Team | Implied Chance |
|---|---|---|
| +900 | Chiefs | 10% |
| +1600 | Broncos | 5.88% |
| +1600 | Chargers | 5.88% |
| +5000 | Raiders | 1.96% |
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When looking at the AFC West teams, the Raiders still have the worst odds in the division to win the Super Bowl. Kansas City at +900 is the second-best in the NFL only behind Buffalo. Then Los Angeles and Denver both are at +1600 which is well above the Raiders who are sitting at +5000.
At +5000, the Raiders come in with the 19th best odds to win the Super Bowl. The trade did impact the line though. Caesars moved from +6000 to +5000 so at least that's a positive if you're a Raiders fan looking for a silver lining.
AFC West Odds
| Team | Odds | Implied Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | +175 | 33.36% |
| Chargers | +300 | 25% |
| Broncos | +310 | 24.39% |
| Raiders | +750 | 11.76% |
As expected, the Raiders still have the worst odds to win the division by a pretty large margin at +750. It's not impossible, obviously, but the thing is the other three teams have significantly better quarterbacks and frankly better rosters.
I like that they traded for Davante Adams and that they brought in Chandler Jones but I worry if it's going to be enough in this division. Sure, they snuck into the playoffs at 10-7 last year but with the roster improvements to the other teams in the division, I'm not sold that they are a real Super Bowl or Division winner threat.
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Who knows, perhaps I'm putting too much stock into a Chargers and Broncos team who still has a lot to improve. Vegas seems to have Raiders in fourth in the division, even after the trade, and it's hard for me to disagree with the logic.