Minnesota Senate Odds: Can Michele Tafoya Pull Shocking Upset Over Peggy Flanagan Next Week?
Former NFL broadcaster Michele Tafoya enters the final week of Minnesota’s Senate race as a substantial prediction-market underdog against Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. Polymarket prices Flanagan at 90% and Tafoya at 10%, but recent polling has generally shown a much closer contest than that market gap suggests. Here are the latest Minnesota Senate odds and what Tafoya would need to overcome the state’s Democratic lean.
Peter Alexis - October 28, 2026, 3:03 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadMinnesota Senate Odds: Peggy Flanagan Holds Commanding Market Lead
Flanagan sits at 90% in the latest prediction-market snapshot, while Tafoya has fallen to 10%. The market also displays an estimated Democratic margin of 7.3 points entering the final week before the November 3 election.
The market has remained remarkably stable throughout the campaign, with Flanagan spending most of the cycle above 80%. Tafoya has occasionally climbed closer to the 20% range but has never seriously threatened to overtake the Democratic nominee.
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Minnesota Senate Odds
Candidate | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Peggy Flanagan | 90% |
Michele Tafoya | 10% |
Minnesota Senate Odds Prediction Market
Peggy Flanagan: 90% Chance
Flanagan enters the closing stretch with the structural advantages expected of a Democrat running statewide in Minnesota. She currently serves as lieutenant governor and has spent years in state politics, giving her a much more traditional political résumé than her Republican opponent.
Recent polling has also consistently placed Flanagan ahead. The RealClearPolitics average through October 26 showed her at 47.8% compared with 42.7% for Tafoya, a 5.1-point advantage, although individual surveys have ranged from a three-point race to a much larger Democratic lead.
Michele Tafoya: 10% Chance
Tafoya made the transition from sports broadcasting into politics after a long career that included more than a decade on NBC’s Sunday Night Football. She won the Republican nomination in August after national Republicans backed her as their strongest opportunity to compete for the open seat being vacated by Sen. Tina Smith.
Her campaign has emphasized her outsider status and positioned her as a somewhat different Republican candidate for Minnesota. Tafoya has tried to appeal beyond the party’s core electorate, an important requirement in a state where Republicans have not won a statewide election since 2006.
Does Michele Tafoya Still Have a Path?
The strongest argument that the race remains competitive comes from polling rather than the prediction market. Rasmussen and Trafalgar both recently showed Flanagan ahead 48%-45%, while several other October surveys produced Democratic advantages of three or four points.
That is meaningfully closer than a 90%-10% prediction-market split might initially suggest. At the same time, Flanagan has led virtually every recent survey, and the latest New York Times/Siena poll showed a considerably larger 54%-40% advantage, creating uncertainty over exactly how narrow the race is entering the final days.
Minnesota’s Democratic Lean Remains Tafoya’s Biggest Obstacle
Minnesota has remained difficult territory for Republicans in statewide elections even when individual races become competitive. Tina Smith won this same Senate seat by 5.2 points in 2020, while Amy Klobuchar won Minnesota’s other Senate seat by nearly 16 points in 2024.
The presidential margin was considerably narrower, with Kamala Harris carrying Minnesota by approximately four points in 2024. That result offers a better model for the type of statewide environment Tafoya would need, but she would still have to outperform recent Republican Senate candidates enough to erase Flanagan’s consistent polling advantage.
Why Tafoya Has Kept the Race Competitive
Tafoya entered the campaign with unusually high name recognition for a first-time statewide candidate after years covering the NFL. National Republicans viewed that profile, combined with her fundraising ability and positions that can differ from the party’s most conservative wing, as a way to compete for voters outside the traditional Republican base.
That strategy appears to have kept the race within single digits in much of the polling. Tafoya is still running against a Democratic nominee with statewide experience in a state that has repeatedly rejected Republican candidates, however, which helps explain why traders remain considerably more skeptical than the polling margins alone might imply.
Minnesota Senate Election Outlook
The 90%-10% Polymarket split paints a much more decisive picture than most public polling. Flanagan has maintained the clearer advantage throughout the campaign, but several recent surveys suggest Tafoya remains within a few points rather than facing the type of overwhelming deficit normally associated with a 10% market price.
The closing question is whether Tafoya can outperform Minnesota’s recent Republican baseline enough to erase that remaining gap. Prediction traders remain heavily positioned toward Flanagan, while the polling gives Tafoya a narrower but still difficult path heading into November 3.
- Pick: Flanagan (90%) Bet on the Minnesota Senate Odds with Polymarket Here
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