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NFL MVP Race: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts Lead the Pack Through 4 Weeks

The NFL's MVP race is extremely tight through the four first games of the season. Which players are in the lead? Jason Radowitz breaks it all down.
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NFL MVP Race: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts Lead the Pack Through 4 Weeks

The NFL's MVP race is extremely tight through the four first games of the season. To begin the year, Josh Allen had the highest probability of winning the award. After a month, Allen is still the favorite to win the MVP but has other all-stars closing in on him. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are the only undefeated team in the NFL. Hurts now have the second-highest odds of winning the award. He's tied with Lamar Jackson, who has the same probability as we head into Week 5. Behind Allen, Hurts, and Jackson is Patrick Mahomes, who just put on a show against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football. If Mahomes puts on more of those performances, he'll be in the top two in no time. Here's where the MVP race stands through four weeks of the season.

NFL MVP Through Week 4 Odds

OddsImplied OddsMVP Candidate
+27526.67%Josh Allen (Bills)
+50016.67%Jalen Hurts (Eagles)
+50016.67%Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
+16005.88%Justin Herbert (Chargers)
+20004.76%Joe Burrow (Bengals)
+30003.23%Kyler Murray (Cardinals)
+35002.78%Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
+35002.78%Matthew Stafford (Rams)
+350000.28%Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars)


Our Best Bet

Heading into Week 5, Jalen Hurts has the most momentum. The Eagles are undefeated and have a pretty easy schedule moving forward. The Eagles play the Cardinals, Cowboys, Steelers, Texans, Commanders, and Colts. Dallas will be the only defense that will test Hurts. The Cardinals, Steelers, Texans, Commanders, and Colts likely won't be able to get the job done against the Eagles. Hurts already has 1,120 yards passing, and coming into the season, he was overlooked as a passer. Many believed he was only suitable for rushing the football. But the Eagles brought in A.J. Brown and gave Hurts another weapon to work with. Now he's playing elite football.

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Don't Bet This Guy

Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals are 2-2 on the year. They've needed two come-from-behind wins to get to .500 on the season. Arizona has struggled in the red zone recently, and they've just had some terrible playcalling when they get there. DeAndre Hopkins will return for Week 7, but by then, it'll be too late. Murray's garbage time stats won't qualify when trying to win the MVP. Don't bet him.

Sleeper Pick

If Doug Pederson can make Nick Foles look elite. He sure as heck can make Trevor Lawrence look it too. Lawrence will want to make sure he limits the turnovers with all those fumbles. But there's a lot to like. He's thrown eight touchdowns to just two interceptions and has nearly 950 yards in the air. The Jaguars got him a big-time receiver in Christian Kirk, and he's been playing like it. Kirk looks like a number-one receiver for this offense. It's a reach to think he'll win the MVP, but he's coming into the league known as one of the best players to ever play college football. Don't sleep on Lawrence. There's value.

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Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.


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