Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 5
Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 5
Week 4 turned out to be a very telling week in a variety of ways. While there were a number of key injuries, and some fantasy football flops, there were also some big games and results even for it being less than 50% of the way through the season.
After four weeks, some teams are clearly rising while others are clearly faltering in the face of adversity and tough matchups. Which of this week's outcomes created the most noticeable shifts in DraftKings' latest odds to win Super Bowl 57?
Super Bowl Odds For All 32 Teams Heading Into Week 5
|Team||Change||Week 3 Odds||Week 4 Odds|
|Kansas City Chiefs||50||750||700|
|Green Bay Packers||-100||900||1000|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||-200||1000||1200|
|Los Angeles Rams||100||1500||1400|
|San Francisco 49ers||200||1800||1600|
|Los Angeles Chargers||-200||2000||2200|
|Las Vegas Raiders||1000||6000||5000|
|New Orleans Saints||-3000||5000||8000|
|New York Giants||-3000||7000||10000|
|New England Patriots||-8000||7000||15000|
|New York Jets||-5000||25000||30000|
Super Bowl Odds Risers
Last week, this spot was held down by a fellow NFC East team -- the now undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. However, even with Dak Prescott on the mend with his thumb injury, the Cowboys have managed three straight victories to keep pace at 3-1, trying them for second in the division with the Giants. It also places them in a tie with five other teams around the league.
Most recently, Cooper Rush turned 223 yards and two touchdowns into a 25-10 win over the Commanders. The passing attack wasn't the only thing clicking, as the defense sustained its early-season success and limited Washington to 10 points. They also sacked Carson Wentz twice and secured two interceptions. On the year, Dallas has amassed 15 sacks, including four from Micah Parsons and another three from DeMarcus Lawrence. Their 81.1 pass-rush grade is second in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus, and their 15.5 opponent points per game rank third.
As a byproduct of their offensive steadiness and defensive strength, the Cowboys' Super Bowl odds have gone from +3500 to +2500, tied for 11th in the NFL. And their 1.1% rise in implied probability is atop the rest of the league. Things are looking good ahead of Prescott's eventual return, though it's worth noting that the Rams and Eagles are on the immediate horizon.
Of this week's most dumbfounding finishes, Atlanta's 23-20 win over Cleveland has to take the cake. The Falcons went down by 3 with just under 10 minutes only to storm back with a pair of field goals to move to 2-2 on the year. They had an abysmal showing in the passing game, but the run game overcame Marcus Mariota's shortcomings to total more than 200 yards.
There are still a ton of question marks around that passing game, as well as a defense that is 25th in opponent points per game to this point. Throw in the fact that star running back Cordarrelle Patterson just landed on Injured Reserve, and you have all the makings of a team with long odds at a title.
Atlanta's +20000 odds are an improvement of -5000 from the week prior, as they now sit ahead of four squads and in a tie with both Carolina and Washington. Back-to-back-to-back matchups versus Tampa Bay, San Francisco, and Cincinnati could put a damper on things, but there are long shots for a reason.
Super Bowl Odds Fallers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Believe it or not, the Buccaneers were in this same spot a week ago when they were fresh off a narrow loss to the Packers. This week, it was the Chiefs who added a second tally to the Bucs' loss column, doing so to the tune of a 41-31 final score.
Tom Brady and the offense did their part to try and keep up with Patrick Mahomes, but the highly touted defense didn't do its part. The Chiefs tore them up on the ground and through the air as Tampa's defense allowed eight more points than their average from Weeks 1 to 3. Maybe it was just a matter of meeting a healthier or even flat-out better team, but either way, the nature of the game led to another slight reduction in their betting love.
The Bucs' second straight loss produced a league-worst 1.4% decrease to their implied probability at +1200 odds. They weren't exactly leapfrogged by any team near the top, but they did see the Rams and 49ers gain on them within the same conference. They will likely be favored in their next three games, so those gaps should widen in due time.
One of the three teams Tampa will face in the coming weeks are the Carolina Panthers. These same Panthers were upward movers seven days ago, but a disappointing home loss to the Arizona Cardinals lands them at 1-3 through four games. It's Carolina's second loss at home, and the fashion in which they did so was more alarming.
The Baker Mayfield hasn't been going well early on. Averaging 19.5 points per game, the Panthers' offense sputtered to 16 points on 220 total yards against the Cardinals. They were held under 200 yards passing for a third consecutive outing, and most of it falls on the shoulders of the new quarterback. Of all passers, Mayfield is 41st in PFF passing grade with four turnover-worthy plays.
With just one win, Carolina is tied with New Orleans at a game out of the division lead. The issue is that they will constantly be chasing Tampa Bay while elsewhere fighting off Wild Card contenders, which include teams like the Packers, Vikings, Cowboys, and Cardinals. It's completely justified to see their odds fall to +20000, ahead of only four teams and behind the Lions and Giants among others. It's going to be tough sledding for Matt Rhule and the team.
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Brett Oswalt has been writing about sports for five years, has covered everything from the NBA to College Football DFS, and previously served as an editor at numberFire. He is a Senior Workforce Planning Analyst at Highmark by day, and an avid sports fan and girl-dad by night. He resides in Pittsburgh, PA with his wife, Marley, daughter, Aria, and goldendoodle, Braun.