Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 5

This past week, Cooper Rush and the Cowboys put together another win in the absence of Dak Prescott. What has that done for their title odds after four weeks of play? Brett Oswalt breaks down each NFL team's Super Bowl odds heading into week 5.
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Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 5

Week 4 turned out to be a very telling week in a variety of ways. While there were a number of key injuries, and some fantasy football flops, there were also some big games and results even for it being less than 50% of the way through the season.

After four weeks, some teams are clearly rising while others are clearly faltering in the face of adversity and tough matchups. Which of this week's outcomes created the most noticeable shifts in DraftKings' latest odds to win Super Bowl 57?

Super Bowl Odds For All 32 Teams Heading Into Week 5

SB Odds - Heading Into Week 5
Change in Super Bowl odds pre- versus post- Week 4 to identify biggest swing games.
TeamChangeWeek 3 OddsWeek 4 Odds
Buffalo Bills0400400
Kansas City Chiefs50750700
Philadelphia Eagles50850800
Green Bay Packers-1009001000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-20010001200
Los Angeles Rams10015001400
San Francisco 49ers20018001600
Baltimore Ravens018001800
Miami Dolphins-40018002200
Los Angeles Chargers-20020002200
Minnesota Vikings30028002500
Cincinnati Bengals50030002500
Dallas Cowboys100035002500
Denver Broncos-100025003500
Las Vegas Raiders100060005000
Indianapolis Colts-250035006000
Cleveland Browns-100050006000
Jacksonville Jaguars060006000
Tennessee Titans200080006000
Arizona Cardinals070007000
New Orleans Saints-300050008000
New York Giants-3000700010000
New England Patriots-8000700015000
Detroit Lions-7000800015000
Pittsburgh Steelers01500015000
Carolina Panthers-100001000020000
Washington Commanders-50001500020000
Atlanta Falcons50002500020000
Chicago Bears-50002000025000
New York Jets-50002500030000
Seattle Seahawks05000050000
Houston Texans-5000050000100000

Super Bowl Odds Risers

Dallas Cowboys

Last week, this spot was held down by a fellow NFC East team -- the now undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. However, even with Dak Prescott on the mend with his thumb injury, the Cowboys have managed three straight victories to keep pace at 3-1, trying them for second in the division with the Giants. It also places them in a tie with five other teams around the league.

Most recently, Cooper Rush turned 223 yards and two touchdowns into a 25-10 win over the Commanders. The passing attack wasn't the only thing clicking, as the defense sustained its early-season success and limited Washington to 10 points. They also sacked Carson Wentz twice and secured two interceptions. On the year, Dallas has amassed 15 sacks, including four from Micah Parsons and another three from DeMarcus Lawrence. Their 81.1 pass-rush grade is second in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus, and their 15.5 opponent points per game rank third.

As a byproduct of their offensive steadiness and defensive strength, the Cowboys' Super Bowl odds have gone from +3500 to +2500, tied for 11th in the NFL. And their 1.1% rise in implied probability is atop the rest of the league. Things are looking good ahead of Prescott's eventual return, though it's worth noting that the Rams and Eagles are on the immediate horizon.

Atlanta Falcons

Of this week's most dumbfounding finishes, Atlanta's 23-20 win over Cleveland has to take the cake. The Falcons went down by 3 with just under 10 minutes only to storm back with a pair of field goals to move to 2-2 on the year. They had an abysmal showing in the passing game, but the run game overcame Marcus Mariota's shortcomings to total more than 200 yards.

There are still a ton of question marks around that passing game, as well as a defense that is 25th in opponent points per game to this point. Throw in the fact that star running back Cordarrelle Patterson just landed on Injured Reserve, and you have all the makings of a team with long odds at a title.

Atlanta's +20000 odds are an improvement of -5000 from the week prior, as they now sit ahead of four squads and in a tie with both Carolina and Washington. Back-to-back-to-back matchups versus Tampa Bay, San Francisco, and Cincinnati could put a damper on things, but there are long shots for a reason.

Super Bowl Odds Fallers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Believe it or not, the Buccaneers were in this same spot a week ago when they were fresh off a narrow loss to the Packers. This week, it was the Chiefs who added a second tally to the Bucs' loss column, doing so to the tune of a 41-31 final score.

Tom Brady and the offense did their part to try and keep up with Patrick Mahomes, but the highly touted defense didn't do its part. The Chiefs tore them up on the ground and through the air as Tampa's defense allowed eight more points than their average from Weeks 1 to 3. Maybe it was just a matter of meeting a healthier or even flat-out better team, but either way, the nature of the game led to another slight reduction in their betting love.

The Bucs' second straight loss produced a league-worst 1.4% decrease to their implied probability at +1200 odds. They weren't exactly leapfrogged by any team near the top, but they did see the Rams and 49ers gain on them within the same conference. They will likely be favored in their next three games, so those gaps should widen in due time.

Carolina Panthers

One of the three teams Tampa will face in the coming weeks are the Carolina Panthers. These same Panthers were upward movers seven days ago, but a disappointing home loss to the Arizona Cardinals lands them at 1-3 through four games. It's Carolina's second loss at home, and the fashion in which they did so was more alarming.

The Baker Mayfield hasn't been going well early on. Averaging 19.5 points per game, the Panthers' offense sputtered to 16 points on 220 total yards against the Cardinals. They were held under 200 yards passing for a third consecutive outing, and most of it falls on the shoulders of the new quarterback. Of all passers, Mayfield is 41st in PFF passing grade with four turnover-worthy plays.

With just one win, Carolina is tied with New Orleans at a game out of the division lead. The issue is that they will constantly be chasing Tampa Bay while elsewhere fighting off Wild Card contenders, which include teams like the Packers, Vikings, Cowboys, and Cardinals. It's completely justified to see their odds fall to +20000, ahead of only four teams and behind the Lions and Giants among others. It's going to be tough sledding for Matt Rhule and the team.

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Brett Oswalt has been writing about sports for five years, has covered everything from the NBA to College Football DFS, and previously served as an editor at numberFire. He is a Senior Workforce Planning Analyst at Highmark by day, and an avid sports fan and girl-dad by night. He resides in Pittsburgh, PA with his wife, Marley, daughter, Aria, and goldendoodle, Braun.

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