2022 NFL MVP Odds: Power Rankings Heading Into Week 8

2022 NFL MVP Odds: Power Rankings Heading Into Week 8

Even with Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts on Bye in Week 7, they remain near the top of the 2022 NFL MVP race heading into Week 8. Joe Burrow had a historic outing against Atlanta, nearly doubling his implied chance of winning the award at the end of the regular season.

Daniel Jones had an impressive outing in a road win against Jacksonville in Week 7 but he still has not been able to crack the 2022 MVP top ten. Patrick Mahomes threw for over 400 yards and three touchdowns in a 21-point win on the road against San Francisco, while Justin Herbert continued to produce big numbers despite losing by double digits to Seattle. Speaking of the Seahawks, Geno Smith has finally climbed inside of the top ten odds for 2022 MVP after completing 74.8 percent of his passes against the Chargers. Conversely, Tom Brady's downward spiral has sent him out of the top ten MVP race for the first time this season.

Here we rank the top ten MVP candidates and explain why each player deserves to be tailed or faded at their current MVP odds. Which players have improved their outlook, and which ones have seen their MVP stock drop?

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2022 NFL MVP Odds

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NFL MVP Power Rankings

1. Josh Allen (+120)  (Bet $100 Collect $220) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings

How good is Josh Allen? Good enough to improve his MVP odds during a Bye Week. Allen jumped down from +160 to +120 without playing a snap, which is indicative of how talented and important he is under center for the Buffalo Bills. The former 2017 top-ten draft pick has 17 touchdowns and four interceptions as a passer, while also racking up 5.5 YPC and two rushing touchdowns. Allen has been leading the MVP race all season and will get his next chance to pad his resumé at home against the Green Bay Packers during Sunday Night Football.

2. Patrick Mahomes (+500) (Bet $100 Collect $600) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings

The Kansas City Chiefs lost star wideout Tyreek Hill this offseason but Patrick Mahomes continues to dominate opposing defenses with relative ease. The former 2018 MVP winner and Super Bowl LIV champion has thrown for at least three touchdowns in four of seven games to begin the 2022 season while eviscerating a talented San Francisco defense with a 73.5 percent completion rate in Week 7.

3. Jalen Hurts (+500) (Bet $100 Collect $550) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings

Another player on Bye who took zero snaps and maintained his MVP stock was Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. The production hasn't been eye-popping like other quarterbacks, but Hurts has a unique playmaking ability with his legs, utilizing his strength and vision to create big chunk plays on the ground. When it comes to his throwing mechanics, Hurts looks like a vastly improved quarterback, completing at least 60 percent of his pass attempts in five of six games played. As long as the Eagles keep winning games, expect Hurts to sit near the top of the MVP race at +500.

4. Lamar Jackson (+1200) (Bet $100 Collect $1300) Click here to get the best odds at Caesars

It's been a tale of two months for Lamar Jackson. In September, the former 2019 MVP winner looked true to form, throwing for at least three touchdowns in each of the first three games. Buffalo, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and the New York Giants have all reduced Jackson's explosive throwing production, forcing him to use his legs. While he's still a dynamic ball carrier on designed runs or improvised scrambles, Jackson's odds have dropped significantly from +850 to +1200, so now may be a good time to lay a futures bet on him due to the increased value. Jackson will face Tampa Bay, New Orleans, and Carolina after the Week 10 Bye, which could go either way based on Jackson's streaky performances.

5. Joe Burrow (+1600) (Bet $100 Collect $1700) Click here to get the best odds at Caesars

Joe Burrow's five-turnover opener against Pittsburgh may have been a silver lining. Since that occurred, the Bengals' third-year franchise quarterback has been red-hot, throwing three touchdowns in back-to-back games against New Orleans and Atlanta to get Cincinnati tied for first place (4-3) in the AFC North with Baltimore. Burrow is fresh off of completing 81 percent of his passes for 481 yards, three touchdowns, and zero turnovers, while also executing a goal-line sneak for his fourth touchdown against the Falcons. This performance has raised Burrow's odds up to +1600 from +3000 after his impressive comeback road win against the Saints in Week 6.

6. Justin Herbert (+2500) (Bet $100 Collect $2600) Click here to get the best odds at PointsBet

There's a large drop-off from Burrow to Justin Herbert, who still occupies the sixth spot in the MVP odds. The Chargers' third-year franchise quarterback is attempting over 50 passes in each of his previous two games, but the wins have been difficult to obtain. Against Seattle's young defense, Herbert threw a pair of touchdowns and fell just short of 300 passing yards, but the Chargers still lost by 14 points. It's been a frustrating year for this offense, which does not possess a good rushing attack, but Herbert is certainly the team's most valuable player keeping the Chargers at 4-3 heading into their Week 8 Bye.

7. Kirk Cousins (+4000) (Bet $100 Collect $4100) Click here to get the best odds at PointsBet

Minnesota is off to a nice 5-1 start and in sole possession of first place in the NFC North. Whether it's the arrival of first-year head coach Kevin O'Connell, or Kirk Cousins' arm improving, it's clear that the Vikings will be a force whenever they can give him time to drop back in the pocket. Former 2021 first-round left tackle Christian Darrisaw is a huge reason for Cousins' success in 2022, allowing hardly any pressure, which has negatively impacted him in previous seasons. Cousins could have a blow-up game against Arizona or Washington beginning in Week 8, so sprinkle some money on Cousins before he posts his first 300-yard, three-touchdown outing of the season.

8. Geno Smith (+4000) (Bet $100 Collect $4100) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings

It's arguably the greatest success story and the biggest surprise of the season. Geno Smith, who many of us thought would lose the quarterback battle to Drew Lock during training camp, has proven all of his doubters wrong with high-level production through seven games. Smith went 20-of-27 for 210 yards and two touchdowns against the Chargers in Week 7, allowing the Seahawks to gain momentum with a double-digit win to occupy first place at 4-3 in the NFC West. If he can replicate this production with at least 65 percent of passes completed against the Giants, Cardinals, and Buccanneers, watch Smith's MVP odds rise.

9. Derek Carr (+5000) (Bet $100 Collect $5100) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings

Las Vegas relied on running back Josh Jacobs to carry them to the second win of the season during Week 7 against the Houston Texans. Derek Carr was a beneficiary, but he did record only six incompletions and played a turnover-free game to cruise to a 38-20 win. Carr has seen his pass attempts dwindle due to the hot running game with Josh Jacobs, but he's now gone three games without throwing an interception while staying above a 60 percent completion rate in four of his past five games. I don't think he climbs much higher in the MVP race but if the Raiders keep winning, Carr will remain inside the top ten.

10. Kyler Murray (+8000) (Bet $100 Collect $8100) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings

After a disappointing 19-9 road loss to Seattle, Kyler Murray disappeared briefly from the MVP top ten odds race. A strong showing against the New Orleans Saints during Thursday Night Football in Week 7 turned his outlook around, as Murray recorded a 69 percent completion rate, force-feeding star wideout DeAndre Hopkins during his first game back from a PED suspension. It was great timing, as Murray's rapport with Hopkins allowed Arizona to pick up its first win in three weeks. For what it's worth, Murray had his best quarterback rating (QBR) of the season against the Saints, finishing with a score of 100.36. Murray gets a good matchup against Minnesota on the road in Week 8, which could spike his MVP odds back to +4000.