Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 9

Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 9

Before the revelation of the 18-week season, the eighth week used to signal a halfway mark of sorts. But still, today, it gives us a nice sample size from which to work on our team-based assumptions. Who's good, and who isn't? Who is a true contender versus a pretender? This week, some teams proved their mettle while others failed to give their backers that same level of confidence.

Which teams accomplished enough to make a move up DraftKings' Super Bowl odds? And which ones suffered losses worthy of longer odds as we head into Week 9 of the season?

Super Bowl Odds For All 32 Teams Heading Into Week 9

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Super Bowl Odds Risers

Buffalo Bills (+225) (Bet $100 to Collect $325) Click here for the best odds, available at PointsBet

Despite their already high standing in the AFC East, in the public's eyes and in the betting markets alike, the Bills continue to rise. Now 6-1, they are winners of four straight, including this past week's 27-17 victory over the Packers. In the home win, Josh Allen and his team were outgained by Aaron Rodgers and company by a count of 398-369. However, much of that boiled down to Green Bay being in comeback mode since the second quarter.

The Bills got out to a 24-7 lead in the first half and didn't really push the gas from that point forward. After all, was said and done, they had three pass connections of 29-plus yards and an impressive 153 yards on the ground (49 from Allen himself). That's just what we've come to expect from Buffalo, though, and that's balance.

Based on Pro Football Focus' grade-based rankings, the Bills are fifth in offensive passing efficiency, sixth in rushing efficiency, and fifth as an offense overall. When you account for their seventh-rated defense, they are the third-best team by all-in grade, trailing only the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles and 5-2 Kansas City Chiefs.

After another week and a trade deadline deal for Nyheim Hines, Buffalo experienced an NFL-high 2.2% improvement to their implied probability. Their +225 odds are far clear of the next-closest team at +500 and are even further clear of the next-closest AFC contender (Kansas City) at +650. The Bills' 31% implied probability of a Super Bowl wins positions them nearly 15% above the Eagles.

Chicago Bears

A hard departure from Buffalo's situation, Chicago's another team that is rising but one that has only been treading water for the larger part of the early going this season. After a surprising 2-1 start, the Bears dropped three straight before a win over New England in Week 7. However, even a loss in Week 8 was promising enough to improve their odds on the betting board.

This past week, on the road against the Cowboys, Chicago gave up 49 points, but Justin Fields again displayed promise versus a very good Dallas defense. They put up 29 points, nearly kept pace in yardage, and went even as far as the turnover battle. Through eight weeks, their 3-5 record is tied for second in the NFC North and has them in the hunt for a Wild Card spot in the NFC playoffs.

Dealing Roquan Smith away at the trade deadline could have an unanticipated impact, but so could the addition of Chase Claypool on the outside. It gives the younger Fields a larger target to throw to down the field and in the red zone. It will be a telling four to five weeks for the Bears in the lead-up to their Week 14 bye. After a meeting with Miami this Sunday, they'll draw the Lions, Falcons, and Jets before facing the Packers in another divisional matchup.

On the heels of the last two weeks of developments both on the field and off, Chicago's odds have shortened by exactly half to +50000. They sit in a tie with the Lions and Panthers but have jumped the Texans and Steelers in the process. An upset win over Miami would, without a doubt, push them into the top 25 squads.

Super Bowl Odds Fallers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2500) (Bet $100 to Collect $2600) - Click here for the best odds, available at DraftKings

Things are in a quiet tailspin in Tampa Bay. A 2-1 start looked promising for Todd Bowles and Tom Brady, but they've since gone 1-4, including three straight losses to the Steelers, Panthers, and Ravens. A five-point home loss to Baltimore this past week wasn't as embarrassing as the previous two defeats, but it's still not a win.

As a matter of fact, the Ravens were able to do whatever they wanted despite being shorthanded in the weapons department. 453 total yards marked a season-high for the Bucs' defense, a defensive unit that now rates 19th overall and 24th against the run -- a clear strength from a year ago when they ranked 11th in defending the ground game.

To this point, Tampa slots in just 20th overall. Their offense is 19th, but with an evident imbalance -- they rank 9th in passing and dead last (32nd) in rushing efficiency. Tom Brady's doing what he can, but he doesn't seem to be in last year's form. Maybe it's about having all weapons healthy or getting more help from the big guys up front. Either way, they'll be tested in the short term.

The Rams are up next, followed by an international game against the Seahawks in Munich. A pair of wins would go a long way to stem their fall down oddsmakers' lists of contenders.

Week over week, the Buccaneers saw their odds move from +1500 to +2500. Back as recently as Week 3, they were at +700, but with these changes, they have gone from second among all teams to eighth. They now trail the aforementioned Ravens and the 49ers, Cowboys, and Vikings. Their 4% implied probability is down more than 2% from last week, putting them in the company of outside contenders like the Chargers, Bengals, and Dolphins.

Pittsburgh Steelers

This was always expected to be a rebuilding year in Pittsburgh. The 2022 season is the first of the post-Ben Roethlisberger, and there was a lot of uncertainty with the addition of Mitch Trubisky in free agency and the acquisition of rookie Kenny Pickett in the draft. The season took even more of a decisive turn in Week 4 when Mike Tomlin opted for Pickett in the second half against the Jets.

Since that time (a loss to New York), the Pickett-led Steelers are 1-3 with mixed results, including that win over Tampa Bay. However, they're now losing two straight and have a mere 23 total points in those two road games. This past week they were 22-point losers to the Eagles in a game in which they surrendered 401 total yards and turned the ball over on 2 occasions.

By PFF's standards, the team's overall performance was their worst of the season, particularly in the offensive passing game. It was also the second straight game with a sub-60 grade in overall offense and below 61 through the air. And as for the defense, it needs to get healthy, especially in the pass rush, where they truly miss the presence of All-Pro edge TJ Watt.

For all their struggles, Pittsburgh's slid to a tie with Houston for last at +100000 odds. They saw the largest week-over-week drop as Chicago jumped up the board. Fortunately, they get a Week 9 bye before a home matchup with New Orleans the following week.