2022 NFL MVP Odds: Power Rankings Heading Into Week 13

Less movement in the NFL MVP race odds happened over the weekend despite a wild series of outcomes in Week 12. Here are the updated NFL MVP odds, led by Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Tua Tagovailoa.
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2022 NFL MVP Odds: Power Rankings Heading Into Week 13

Individual performances from the 2022 NFL MVP frontrunners were largely limited in Week 12, but there were notable highlights from a few players. It starts with Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, who rushed 17 times for 157 yards against Green Bay, while also throwing two touchdowns in a back-and-forth shootout on Sunday Night Football. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes still sits comfortably in front of Hurts at -160, despite only throwing one touchdown against the short-handed Los Angeles Rams.

Las Vegas running back Josh Jacobs hasn't climbed into the top ten MVP race yet but he is trending in the right direction after a historic 303-yard outing, carrying the Raiders to a second straight win in dramatic fashion with an 86-yard touchdown to seal the game in overtime on the road in Seattle. Tua Tagovailoa only played one half of football against Houston but he did plenty to maintain his third-place position in the MVP odds, throwing 299 yards and a touchdown in two-quarters of action. The long-time betting favorite, Josh Allen, completed only 57.1 percent of his pass attempts against Detroit, finishing with 253 yards and two touchdowns, along with an interception. His fall from the top hasn't stopped and he'll get an even tougher upcoming schedule against all three AFC East divisional opponents.

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Other players have risen and fallen, but Mahomes, Hurts, and Tagovailoa remain locked into the top three spots in the 2022 NFL MVP race. This doesn't mean that other players don't have a chance to climb quickly, like Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow, but it will take a significant effort down the stretch to leapfrog any of these three quarterbacks if they sustain their current level of production.

Here we rank the top ten MVP candidates and explain why each player deserves to be tailed or faded at their current MVP odds. Which players have improved their outlook, and which ones have seen their MVP stock drop?

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2022 NFL MVP Odds

OddsPlayerStock WatchImplied Chance
-160Patrick MahomesUp61.54%
350Jalen HurtsUp22.22%
500Tua TagovailoaNeutral15.38%
1400Josh AllenDown6.67%
1400Joe BurrowUp6.67%
6000Lamar JacksonDown1.64%
6000Dak PrescottUp1.64%
8000Geno SmithDown1.23%
8000Kirk CousinsDown1.23%
10000Tyreek HillDown0.99%

Click here for 2022 NFL MVP odds

NFL MVP Power Rankings

1. Patrick Mahomes MVP Odds (-160) Bet $100 to collect $162. Best odds available at DraftKings (click here)

Kansas City didn't have much difficulty navigating to a 26-10 win at home against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12, with Patrick Mahomes throwing over 300 yards for the sixth consecutive game. The former 2018 NFL MVP is playing elite football when it matters, leading the Chiefs to five straight wins with his arm being the primary reason. Mahomes only threw one touchdown and a late interception against the Matthew Stafford-less Rams and still improved his MVP odds from -150 to -160. I'd hold off betting on Mahomes right now due to the decreased value, especially since the Chiefs play the Bengals next week in Cincinnati, which could drive his odds down into better value territory with a loss against Joe Burrow next Sunday.

2. Jalen Hurts MVP Odds (+350) Bet $100 to collect $450 Best odds available at FanDuel (click here)

Philadelphia's been finding different ways to win games this season, using third-year quarterback as the de facto RB1 in the Eagles' backfield during a 40-33 win over Green Bay on Sunday Night Football in Week 12. Hurts carried 17 times for 157 yards while throwing a pair of touchdowns on an efficient 16 completions. He now has at least 16 carries for 86 yards in back-to-back games against the Colts and Packers, which could be due to the absence of tight end Dallas Goedert. Either way, +350 is still great value to sprinkle on with Hurts ramping up his usage in the run game.

3. Tua Tagovailoa MVP Odds (+500) Bet $100 to collect $600 Best odds available at DraftKings (click here)

The arrival of Mike McDaniel has revitalized and perhaps saved Tua Tagovailoa's career. While the third-year quarterback has dealt with numerous injuries, including a scary concussion in Week 4, the confidence McDaniel provides to the battle-tested Tagovailoa has resulted in big production for the Miami Dolphins in 2022. Tagovailoa has thrown for over 285 yards in four consecutive games, which he accomplished in essentially two-quarters of football against Houston in Week 12. He has hardly been used as a ball carrier since returning from injury, relying solely on the scheme and his strong arm to link up with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle for five straight wins heading into a massive road game against San Francisco in Week 13. It may be a good idea to lay money on Tagovailoa's odds at +500 because if he beats the 49ers next week, expect the odds to dry up and launch to +300 or lower.

4. Josh Allen MVP Odds (+1400) Bet $100 to collect $1500 Best odds available at DraftKings (click here)

Josh Allen has been going through a difficult stretch in the season, narrowly avoiding an upset loss on the road against Detroit. Fortunately, Allen connected with star wideout Stefon Diggs on a huge throw in the closing seconds of Thursday's opening Thanksgiving game to set up the game-winning field goal for Buffalo. We saw the former MVP betting favorite return to using his legs effectively in Week 12, churning out 10 carries for 78 yards and a touchdown against the Lions' vulnerable run defense. While he's leading the Bills back into the win column, a daunting upcoming divisional schedule against the Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins will either elevate or tank his chances at the 2022 NFL MVP. +1400 is the best value we've seen since the season began for Allen's odds, but I would wait to see how he plays against Bill Belichick on Thursday night before placing a bet.

5. Joe Burrow MVP Odds (+1400) Bet $100 to collect $1500 Best odds available at FanDuel (click here)

My favorite player at current odds in the MVP race is Joe Burrow. The third-year quarterback led a previously inept Bengals franchise to an AFC Championship over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, while nearly pulling off an upset over the Los Angeles Rams during Super Bowl LVI. Burrow logged 270 passing yards and carried nine times for an additional 32 yards in a hard-fought 20-16 road win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 12. While he only accounted for one touchdown, the Bengals have won without star players Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Mixon, while entering a rematch at home against the Chiefs in Week 13. +1400 is a fantastic payout, and if the Bengals can get their other star players back on offense, Burrow's passing stats will pop, dramatically elevating his stock in the 2022 NFL MVP odds. I'm willing to lay a lot of units toward Burrow capturing the MVP from Mahomes, especially with a decisive win next weekend.

6. Lamar Jackson MVP Odds (+6000) Bet $100 to collect $6100 Best odds available at DraftKings (click here)

The hot start to Lamar Jackson's 2022 season has quickly deteriorated into a sluggish crawl toward the finish line. The 2019 NFL MVP winner has what it takes to return to the top of the mountain, but he's going to need more help from his other teammates in Baltimore. A lot more help. Whether it's the defense blowing leads or a shallow wide receiving corps, Jackson is relying on his legs to get first downs, collecting over 80 yards in two of his past three games. If the touchdowns begin to follow, expect Jackson to have a more realistic chance of winning his second MVP trophy. Until this happens though, I'm fading Jackson despite possessing lucrative 60/1 odds.

7. Dak Prescott MVP Odds (+6000) Bet $100 to collect $6100 Best odds available at DraftKings (click here)

Dak Prescott's MVP odds hinge on Dallas' dominance. He's crept into the top ten since returning from a hand injury in Week 7, recording at least two passing touchdowns in every game. Prescott is not blowing anyone away with his production but he's maintaining high efficiency, completing at least 70 percent of his pass attempts in four of five games since the injury. Colts, Texans, and Jaguars are the next three opponents Prescott will face, so it's not the worst idea to put a bet in at +6000 ahead of a favorable late-season schedule.

8. Geno Smith MVP Odds (+8000) Bet $100 to collect $8100 Best odds available at DraftKings (click here)

Seattle lost a heartbreaker in overtime against Josh Jacobs and the Las Vegas Raiders, but Geno Smith still did his thing in Week 12. The improbable rise of Smith into the MVP conversation is due to high production in the passing game, where Smith has recorded at least 275 yards and two touchdowns in the last three games. He's a fun story and a better player than we initially gave credit to, but I'm holding off on betting Smith's odds, especially with a bad defense costing the Seahawks wins in the last few outings.

9. Kirk Cousins MVP Odds (+8000) Bet $100 to collect $8100 Best odds available at DraftKings (click here)

Kirk Cousins threw three touchdowns for the first time all season, yet his MVP odds plummeted from +6000 to +8000. A high-scoring 33-26 win against a talented New England defense should've seen Cousins' odds decrease in value but raise in probability. We're seeing Cousins play at his ceiling and his odds are going in the opposite direction, so I'm fading his odds, especially preparing for the lockdown coverage deployed by the New York Jets in Week 13.

10. Tyreek Hill MVP Odds (+10000) Bet $100 to collect $10100 Best odds available at DraftKings (click here)

The only non-quarterback in the top-ten NFL MVP odds continues to be Miami wideout Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins' passing attack is one of the most prolific in the league and Hill is vacuuming up targets, logging over 85 receiving yards in four of his past six games played. The touchdowns were absent against Houston, but Hill still caught six receptions for 85 yards on nine targets. It'll take a Herculean effort to make a serious run at the MVP, which Hill is certainly equipped to pull off, but I think Miami's offense is too balanced to elevate Hill much higher in his MVP probability.

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Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.

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