Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 13

Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 13

Week 12 saw 11 of 16 games decided by one possession. Three of those ended within three points, and another went to overtime. It was quite the competitive week as teams continue to battle it out for playoff spots down the stretch. Some teams very much solidified their spot, but others faltered, and even further others fell to the very bottom of the NFL's ranks. They might not be eliminated from the playoffs and a Super Bowl run, but it would be shocking to see long shots like them surprise oddsmakers.

With a very disappointing season to date, the Broncos are one of the teams that are headed toward a long offseason. But just how slim are their chances, and what did this week's result do to lengthen their Super Bowl odds?

Super Bowl Odds For All 32 Teams Heading Into Week 13

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Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl Odds (+400) (Bet $100 to Collect $500) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel

Slowly but surely, the Kansas City Chiefs -- listed at +450 a week ago -- overtook the Buffalo Bills for the top spot in the eyes of the oddsmakers at DraftKings. Winners of five straight, their most recent victims were the Los Angeles Rams, who they bested 26-10 in handily fashion.

Admittedly, the Rams were very shorthanded, but K.C. was up 20-3 before going into the fourth and relying more heavily on the run game. When all was said and done, the Chiefs racked up 117 yards and a score on the ground, as well as 320 passing yards and another score from Patrick Mahomes and company. A couple of turnovers are noteworthy, but still, they are 9-2, representing the best record in the AFC.

The Chiefs' on-field performance was good enough for an 81.5 grade, according to Pro Football Focus. It's the second straight week in which they exceeded 80, and in five of the last six, they have been above 74. And the defense has incrementally improved with each week going back to Week 7. In fact, their 82.1 grade this past week is good enough for their best of the year.

At +190, the Chiefs are now favored to win what seems to now be a two-horse race with the Bills (+225) for the AFC's number-one overall seed. They also draw a very favorable schedule to give them an added boost over Buffalo. According to PFF, their schedule is the fourth easiest compared to Buffalo, which has the 13th hardest.

The combination of their play and the likelihood of home-field advantage in the postseason has led to a sizable increase in the Chiefs' odds-derived probability. Last week, it was at 18.2% but has since increased to 20%, noting the largest increase over that span. They hold a nearly 2% edge over Buffalo is one of just five teams with an implied probability in the double digits. It will be interesting to see how well that holds over the next couple of weeks when Kansas City squares off with Cincinnati in AFC road matchups.

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Carolina Panthers Super Bowl Odds (+25000) (Bet $100 to Collect $25,100) - Click here for the best odds, available at DraftKings

At this same time last week, the Panthers found themselves in the bottom portion of this article, having seen their odds lengthen by a sizable amount after another loss. But with this week's home victory over the Broncos, they improved to 4-8 and improved their gross odds by the largest amount week over week.

With Sam Darnold at the helm, Carolina put up 23 points with 185 of their 349 yards in the run game. However, even with a limited output in the passing game that's where the difference was. Darnold's efficiency earned the team a passing grade of 82, which was only bested by their Week 7 game against the Buccaneers. Their overall performance was enough for their second-best grade of the season next to that upset win.

As for the defense, it wasn't in peak shape, but limiting an opponent to 10 points is big. As is turning them over twice and taking down the quarterback thrice (two sacks from Brian Burns). Through this point, the Panthers' defensive unit is 19th as a whole, and they are right around the middle of the pack in all subcategories, including pass rush.

Undoubtedly, the Panthers will have to scratch and claw (no pun intended) their way to a playoff spot. They are only one win and two losses behind Tampa at the top of the division, not to mention within a game of the Falcons and tied with the Saints. But the thing is they're last at +1600 to win the NFC South. And the chance of them securing a Wild Card spot isn't good. As it stands now, they are fifth among teams on the outside looking into the playoff picture.

Super Bowl Odds Fallers

Baltimore Ravens (+1600) Bet $100 to Collect $1,700

Over in the AFC, the Ravens find themselves in the thick of the playoff chase, no thanks to a narrow road loss to the Jaguars this past weekend. Baltimore got out to a lead early and even led 12-10 going into the fourth, but there Jacksonville tallied 18 points in the final six minutes of the game to storm from behind and pull out the win within the last 15 seconds. It was another heartbreaker for a Ravens team that has now totaled a margin of just 12 points across its 4 defeats.

For John Harbaugh and the team, though, the silver lining is that they didn't play their best. Their 69.2 overall grade is far short of where they were for the previous four weeks (all resulting in wins) and is 18 below their overall grade (87.7) for the year. The passing game earned its best mark of the year, but the run game was very average, and the defense had its worst showing since Week 8. In coverage, their 47.2 grade was especially awful, setting a new low for the defense.

That porous pass defense has been Baltimore's weakest link all year. By grade, they're 15th in the NFL and are allowing the sixth-most yards per game. While rookie Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey have excelled, Marcus Peters has had his struggles, and they've just now gotten Marcus Williams back into the mix on the back end. There's room for improvement, and that could do a lot for their chances at a championship run.

Oddsmakers have kept Baltimore in the top seven teams despite their most recent loss. The reasons -- Lamar Jackson, an efficient run game, and solid enough defense -- are evident, but at the same time, it seems that secondary has given them a reason for pause. Their 2.5% drop in implied probability is the largest of the week by 1.4%. The last time their odds were longer than +1500 was back in Week 9.

The Ravens are at 84% to make the playoffs, and a division title is more likely (62%) than not. Also helping their cause is the league's 10th-softest schedule toward the finish. They draw home matchups with the Broncos, Falcons, and Steelers, and their toughest game might just be a Week 18 road matchup with Cincinnati.

Denver Broncos (+100000) Bet $100 to Collect $100,100 - Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel

As previously alluded to, the Broncos were the subject of the losing end of that Carolina Panthers victory on Sunday afternoon. Russell Wilson and his team continue to struggle, as they were held to a measly 142 passing yards and a completion percentage of 54%. With one touchdown and three sacks to his credit, Wilson's passer rating ended the day at 73.7.

By PFF's standards, the Broncos' pass game was actually a bit better than its been, earning a 70.2 grade compared to the overall offense's 62.3. As a team, they were at 62.4 due to shortcomings on the defensive side (a 63.0 grade there). Among the defensive subcategories, their coverage grade of 51.3 was their worst and signified a second straight month below 52. For reference, their season-long mark is second among all teams at 86.

There were a lot of negatives and -- unlike weeks past -- little positives to point to. And it appears that sportsbooks latched on to that as an indicator of what's to come.

At DraftKings, Denver experienced the largest dip of any team from +20000 to +100000. That's a distant departure from their preseason odds of +1800 and +10000 only a few weeks back. They're now tied at the bottom with the likes of the Bears and Texans, carrying an implied probability of 0.1%. Their playoff odds are at +10000 to even make the playoffs let alone win it all.

As if that wasn't enough of a mountain to climb, Denver's schedule is also the third-hardest over the final six weeks. They trail only the Patriots and Bengals in that regard and are set to face two certain playoff teams in the Ravens and Chiefs (twice), as well as a season finale against a tough Chargers team. It would take a miraculous effort for them to turn things around and go all the way to the Super Bowl.