AFC Playoff Picture: Can the New York Jets Claim the Final Wild Card Spot?
The top six spots in the AFC are locked in and will make the playoffs. But the same isn’t true for the seventh spot, which sportsbooks currently see as a horse race with no clear favorite. But the New York Jets are out in front by a nose for the spot.
Kyle Newman - December 8, 2022, 10:39 AM EST
5 minAFC Playoff Picture: Can the New York Jets Claim the Final Wild Card Spot?
Most agree that the top six spots in the AFC are locked in. How they’re seeded may change, but the general consensus is the teams that currently own the top six spots will make the playoffs. The same isn’t true for the seventh spot, which sportsbooks currently see as a horse race with no clear favorite. For now, though, it’s the New York Jets who are out in front by a nose.
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AFC Playoff Picture
Sportsbooks believe the Jets are more likely to miss the playoffs than to make them. They’re given -117 odds to miss the playoffs, an implied 53.9% chance, to +106 odds, or an implied 48.5% chance to make them. Yet, that’s enough for them to edge out their competition.
Their biggest competition according to the books is the Los Angeles Chargers. The books give the Chargers +165 odds to make the playoffs, or an implied 37.7% chance, more than 10% worse than the Jets. Only made to look worse by their -175 odds to miss the playoffs, an implied 63.6% chance.
The Patriots are third at +275, or an implied 26.7% chance to make the playoffs. So, despite beating the Jets twice, sportsbooks still believe they’re more than 20% less likely to grab the final playoff spot. Their given -260 odds, or an implied 72.2% chance to miss the playoffs.
The last of the realistic options is the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders would need to go unbeaten in their final five games and get some help to get in, so the books don’t like their chances at all. The Raiders are given +680 odds, or an implied 12.8% chance to make the playoffs, less than half the chance the Patriots have. The books are so confident that the Raiders are all but out of the running that they’re being given -910 odds, or an implied 90.1% chance to do so.
The final AFC playoff spot will be won by one of these teams overcoming a major obstacle. The Raiders need to go 5-0 to even have a chance. The Patriots need to win at least two games against the Bills, Dolphins, or Bengals. The Chargers need at least one win against a team over .500, which is something they haven’t done this season. The Jets need one road win against the Bills, Dolphins, or Seahawks. Even that may not be enough for any of these teams, that’s just the starting point.
So of course the books are going to favor the Jets for now. After all, they do have wins over the Bills and Dolphins already this season. They’ve proven capable of doing what they need to, none of the others have. That said, it’s still a tough hill to climb, which is why none of these teams are favored to make the playoffs.
AFC Teams to Make Playoffs Odds
Team | Odds | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
New York Jets | +106 | 48.5% |
Los Angeles Chargers | +165 | 37.7% |
New England Patriots | +275 | 26.7% |
Oakland Raiders | +680 | 12.8% |
