NFL MVP Power Rankings: Breaking Down the Field After Week 14

NFL MVP Power Rankings: Breaking Down the Field After Week 14

We saw sparks fly in the 2022 NFL MVP race during Week 14, which has elevated Philadelphia Eagles' third-year quarterback Jalen Hurts atop the MVP odds for the first time this season. Hurts logged 294 scrimmage yards and three total touchdowns during a 48-22 rout on the road against the New York Giants. He returned to producing against opponents with his legs while dialing up accurate deep balls to the Eagles' talented wide receiving corps.

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Patrick Mahomes threw for another 300-yard game and had three touchdowns, but the Chiefs coasted and nearly cost themselves the game on the road against Denver. Joe Burrow is the only other player in the MVP race with higher than 10/1 odds, but his implied chance percentage dropped down to 11 percent after a tough matchup against Cleveland. While Burrow is no longer completely defeated by the Browns at 1-4, Burrow didn't have a particularly strong game, finishing with under 240 passing yards and a couple of touchdowns, while also throwing an interception in a gritty 23-10 win.

Here we rank the top 10 MVP candidates and explain why each player deserves to be tailed or faded at their current MVP odds. Which players have improved their outlook, and which ones have seen their MVP stock tank?

2022 NFL MVP Odds

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NFL MVP Power Rankings

1. Jalen Hurts MVP Odds (-115) Bet $100 to collect $186 DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

We saw Lamar Jackson win the 2019 MVP with his electrifying rushing upside and ridiculously high touchdown rate at 9.0 percent, which Jalen Hurts possesses. While the touchdown percentage hovers at 5.7 percent for Hurts through 13 games played, he's been incredibly accurate as a passer, developing this particular part of his game and elevating it to heights that Jackson has yet to reach. The newest MVP leader has not thrown an interception in four consecutive games, while he's rushed for at least 77 yards during three of these matchups. The only game he didn't hit 70 rushing yards was against the Titans' porous pass defense in Week 13, so Hurts opted to shred them for 380 yards and three touchdowns, while still accounting for another score on the ground. As long as the Eagles keep winning, Hurts will likely hoist the 2022 MVP trophy. -115 is the lowest value we've seen in a while, but against Chicago in Week 15, it's going to be great in comparison to a week from now, so hop aboard at -115 before Hurts completely locks this up.

2. Patrick Mahomes MVP Odds (+150) Bet $100 to collect $250 DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

The Chiefs nearly blew a 27-0 lead against Denver but Patrick Mahomes managed to wind up with over 350 passing yards and three touchdowns. Granted, the win was much harder to obtain than it appeared in the first half, but credit to Denver's defense for forcing three interceptions against the former MVP frontrunner. Kansas City will stay on the road and play a scrappy Houston defense, which gave Dallas fits in Week 14. We're finally seeing good odds on Mahomes at +150, but next week could either launch him up or down the MVP odds race. It's tough to say with Houston right now, so I don't mind sprinkling on Mahomes with the best value he's had in a few weeks.

3. Joe Burrow MVP Odds (+750) Bet $100 to collect $850 FanDuel has the best odds, click here to bet

Burrow struggled against Cleveland in the first quarter but connected with Ja'Marr Chase on a laser throw for the game's opening touchdown halfway through the second quarter. Burrow and the Bengals finally got off their schneid against the Browns, improving to 1-4 since the franchise quarterback was drafted first overall by Cincinnati back in 2020. His completion percentage dipped from 80 percent to 54 percent against a stingy Cleveland pass defense, but he hit a couple of deep shots to wind up with a pair of touchdowns. Myles Garrett collapsed the pocket frequently, sacking Burrow twice, but he overcame it and secured a huge divisional win. +750 is a marginal distance behind Mahomes. The Bengals have a tough end to their regular season schedule, so I'd hold off on laying money right now until Burrow explodes for another 350-yard, four-touchdown outing.

4. Josh Allen MVP Odds (+2000) Bet $100 to collect $2100 Caesars has the best odds, click here to bet

Buffalo's defense did a lot of the work in Week 14, holding the New York Jets to 232 total yards and one touchdown. Josh Allen still played his typical brand of football, handling ten carries for 47 yards and a rushing touchdown, while connecting with tight end Dawson Knox for a 24-yard touchdown at the end of the first half. OC Ken Dorsey is adopting a more balanced, run-centric scheme with the emergence of rookie running back James Cook, which takes a lot off of Allen's plate. It's great for the Bills but not as good for Allen's MVP outlook. The remaining four games for Buffalo will be against the Dolphins, Bears, Bengals, and Patriots, so as enticing as +2000 sounds for Allen right now, it's unlikely the former 2022 MVP betting favorite returns to the mountaintop. If you want to lay a bet right now at 20/1, I don't blame you, but just know that he'll need to explode in plus-matchups to reobtain a realistic chance of cashing out.

5. Tua Tagovailoa MVP Odds (+2000) Bet $100 to collect $2100 DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

Week 14 was easily Tua Tagovailoa's worst game of the season that he finished. The third-year quarterback has battled through a lot of adversity to arrive in the MVP conversation, overcoming a coach that didn't like him and numerous injuries, but Tagovailoa was held to 145 passing yards and one touchdown against the Los Angeles Chargers' backup defensive backs. He hasn't thrown for 300 yards since Week 9 against the Bears and was largely held in check by San Francisco in Week 13. The Dolphins are now on a two-game losing slump entering a road contest against Buffalo in Week 15, so seeing his odds drop from +1200 to +2000 is discouraging. The lack of a running game is hurting Tagovailoa as well, but without high-end production and wins, the MVP race will likely move on without him in the picture. Fade Tagovailoa at +2000.

6. Geno Smith MVP Odds (+8000) Bet $100 to collect $8100 DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

Seattle got handled at home by Carolina's pass defense in Week 14, which forced Geno Smith to throw two interceptions for the first time all season. The Seahawks fell behind 20-7 in the first half before Smith connected with D.K. Metcalf for the team's first touchdown right before halftime, but it was ultimately too little too late. Smith had his lowest completion percentage of the year at 58.3 percent, falling under 64 percent for the first time. He possesses an incredible underdog story and has proved himself a competent starter right now and in the future, but the MVP is no longer within sight. Don't sprinkle on +8000, as Smith will face the vaunted San Francisco defense that shut him down back in Week 3.

7. Tyreek Hill MVP Odds (+10000) Bet $100 to collect $10,100 BetMGM has the best odds, click here to bet

Now we're in the bottom tier of MVP candidates. Yes, one of these players could pop in the final four games, but Tyreek Hill is attached to Tua Tagovailoa. Miami's two-game losing slump has dropped the odds but elevated the value for Hill, but he's still 100/1 to win the 2022 MVP. We saw his brilliance in an improvised scoop-and-score situation on Sunday night against the Chargers, while he also hauled in a 60-yard pass from Tagovailoa in the third quarter, but Hill needs to be scoring multiple touchdowns per game if he wants any chance of improving his MVP stock. A road game in Buffalo against a healthier, improved Bills defense will test his skill set, but it might be too much to handle. Hold on Hill at +10000 until he gets through tough contests against Buffalo and Green Bay's secondary.

8. Kirk Cousins MVP Odds (+10000) Bet $100 to collect $10,100 DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

Minnesota was handled by Detroit in Week 14, as the Lions completely shut down the Vikings' run game. This forced Kirk Cousins to attempt 41 passes against a bad Detroit secondary, which logged 31 completions for 425 yards and two touchdowns. Cousins has been hanging around the bottom of the MVP top ten odds for a couple of weeks now, but even a 425-yard performance without committing a turnover couldn't budge his stock upward one bit. There's no point in betting on Cousins to suddenly become an MVP frontrunner at this point, as he is putting up huge numbers with star wideout Justin Jefferson to no avail.

9. Justin Jefferson MVP Odds (+10000) Bet $100 to collect $10,100 FanDuel has the best odds, click here to bet

Speaking of Justin Jefferson, the Vikings' third-year star wideout was special in Week 14. Jefferson caught 11 of 15 targets for 223 yards, including a 47-yard reception where he stepped out of bounds but could've finished with a touchdown. +10000 is tempting for any player, but just as with Tyreek Hill, Jefferson will have to overcome his team's losses and volatile quarterback play. It's too much despite how talented he is playing right now, but expect Jefferson to linger in the bottom of the top-ten MVP odds ahead of matchups against the Colts and Giants.

10. Dak Prescott MVP Odds (+10000) Bet $100 to collect $10,100 DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

Dak Prescott attempted 39 passes in Week 14, which was the second-highest mark since a Week 10 overtime loss against Green Bay. Prescott had a tough outing against Houston's pass defense, finishing with a 61.5 percent completion rate and 284 yards, while also committing two interceptions. Ultimately, the seventh-year quarterback led the Cowboys down the field on a game-winning drive that ended with an Ezekiel Elliot two-yard touchdown conversion. Star wideout CeeDee Lamb was held to five receptions for 33 yards on six targets, while tight end Dalton Schultz finished as the leading receiver with six receptions for 87 yards. Prescott can make big plays and execute in clutch moments, but he's also a bit of a game manager who relies on the run-centric scheme and aggressive defense to keep his numbers down. Mistakes like the ones made in Week 14 dropped Prescott from +6000 to +10000, so he's an easy fade for the rest of the season.