2022 NFL MVP Odds: Week 16 Power Rankings

2022 NFL MVP Odds: Week 16 Power Rankings

After one of the most memorable weekends in recent NFL memory, including several historic comebacks and blown leads, the 2022 NFL MVP race has tightened up. We've seen quite a bit of jockeying between the top five to seven players, but with the end of the regular season looming on the horizon, there are currently two players who possess the odds, usage, and talent to hoist the MVP.

Jalen Hurts started off on a bad foot against Chicago, throwing a pair of interceptions, but he delivered a strong outing through the air against a bad Chicago defense. Hurts finished with 315 passing yards and carried 17 times for 61 yards and three touchdowns, including two goal-line conversions. Patrick Mahomes also logged another 300-yard performance, throwing a pair of touchdowns and adding a rushing touchdown to outlast the scrappy Houston Texans' defense on the road in overtime. On Monday, it was revealed that Hurts suffered a sprained shoulder against the Bears, finishing the game but clouding his availability ahead of Week 16 against Dallas. As a result, his odds have dropped, and Mahomes has regained the lead at -350.

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Outside of Hurts and Mahomes, it's going to take a herculean effort from any of the other eight players in the top ten MVP odds to usurp these two quarterbacks. Here we rank the top 10 MVP candidates and explain why each player deserves to be tailed or faded at their current MVP odds. Which players have improved their outlook, and which ones have seen their MVP stock tank?

2022 NFL MVP Odds

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NFL MVP Race

1. Jalen Hurts MVP Odds (+550) (Bet $100 to Collect $650) Click here for the best odds, available at DraftKings

Philadelphia is benefitting from Jalen Hurts' improvement as a passer this season. The third-year quarterback shook off a sluggish start to Week 15 on the road in windy Chicago, finishing with over 300 passing yards and three rushing touchdowns. He's a versatile, dual-throat quarterback with enough talent in his arm and legs to keep defenders guessing, which allows Hurts to conduct incredible plays in any matchup. Unfortunately, recent news has surfaced regarding a shoulder injury he sustained during the third quarter of the win over Chicago. As a result, Hurts' MVP odds have dropped from -150 to +550, putting Patrick Mahomes far ahead at -350 with three weeks remaining in the MVP race. Gaining value at +550 makes a difference, so go ahead and lay some money on Hurts, assuming he returns prior to the playoffs.

2. Patrick Mahomes MVP Odds (-350) (Bet $350 to Collect $450) Click here for the best odds, available at DraftKings

We continue to see Patrick Mahomes' odds trend down in the NFL MVP race, which means he's becoming more valuable. The former 2018 MVP has thrown for over 300 yards, and at least two touchdowns in four of his past six games played, relying on his gunslinging mentality to make difficult throws into tight windows or to out-throw the coverage. +165 is the nice value, so I like sprinkling on Mahomes' current odds ahead of a plus-matchup against Seattle's defense in Week 16. With news regarding Jalen Hurts' sprained shoulder injury, Mahomes' odds have shifted to -350, which means he is once again the clear MVP frontrunner. Hopefully, you could submit a bet at +165 before this news breaking.

3. Josh Allen MVP Odds (+550) (Bet $100 to Collect $650) Click here for the best odds, available at PointsBet

Josh Allen is steadily building stronger performances since dropping two games to the Jets and Vikings. The Bills' superstar quarterback completed 62.5 percent of his throws for 304 yards and four touchdowns against Miami in Week 15, adding 77 rushing yards on ten carries in yet another fourth-quarter comeback. Upcoming road trips to Chicago and Cincinnati could make or break Allen's odds, but I like betting on his current 5.5/1 odds ahead of a cake matchup against a porous Bears defense.

4. Joe Burrow MVP Odds (+600) (Bet $100 to Collect $700) Click here for the best odds, available at PointsBet

As much as I've wanted to back Joe Burrow as the MVP, Cincinnati's defense is holding him back from having to do everything. This is no slight of the Bengals' third-year quarterback, who completed 69 percent of his throws for four touchdowns on the road against a good Tampa Bay defense. However, the balanced personnel means Burrow won't have to continuously throw for 350 yards and four touchdowns every game. Cincinnati is a dangerous team, and Burrow is as poised and talented as they come, but he's becoming an MVP fade at +600. I understand sprinkling anyways, be aware that it's going to take a massive stretch of production in the final three weeks to surpass Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts in the NFL MVP race.

5. Justin Jefferson MVP Odds (+10000) (Bet $100 to Win $205) Click here for the best odds, available at BetMGM

Minnesota mounted a historic 33-0 comeback against Indianapolis in Week 15, with star wideout Justin Jefferson factoring in as a massive piece. The Vikings have turned to Jefferson heavily as of late, funneling 15 to 16 targets to him in the past two weeks, resulting in monster games with huge receptions in clutch moments. As talented a player as Jefferson is, he's tied to Kirk Cousins and the constantly doubted Minnesota Vikings, so he doesn't have all of the ingredients required to win an MVP trophy.

6. Tua Tagovailoa MVP Odds (+10000) (Bet $100 to Win $10,100) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel

Week 15 saw Tua Tagovailoa put together his best performance in a few weeks, nearly ending Miami's losing skid on the road against a tough Buffalo defense. However, the Dolphins' third-year quarterback was still held under a 57 percent completion rate for the third consecutive game while throwing for under 240 yards and two touchdowns. The final three games against Green Bay, New England, and the New York Jets creates a difficult path to the MVP for Tagovailoa, so I'm going to fade accordingly at 100/1 odds.

7. Justin Herbert MVP Odds (+13000) (Bet $100 to Win $13,100) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel

We're now firmly in the bottom half of the NFL MVP race, and there aren't many candidates worth considering as a realistic shot of winning the MVP. If there is any player with enough talent and peaking at the right time, it has to be Justin Hebert. The Chargers' third-year franchise quarterback finally has all of his wideouts healthy, which has made a big difference, leading to a 3-1 record in its last four games played. Herbert has three consecutive finishes with over 300 passing yards, so it's fun as a dart throw to lay some money on his MVP odds at +13000.

8. Tyreek Hill MVP Odds (+20000) (Bet $100 to Win $20,100) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel

It's been fun to watch Tyreek Hill continue to dominate defenders with his speed and hands in Miami. Hill has recorded a touchdown in five of his past six games played after starting with only two in the first eight weeks while delivering over 68 receiving yards in four consecutive games. Hill is a fantastic player to watch, but he has no chance of winning the NFL MVP race, considering he's on a losing skid with a quarterback who has not totally returned to how he looked earlier in the season. Fade Hill at +20000.

9. Kirk Cousins MVP Odds (+20000) (Bet $100 to Win $20,000) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel

Kirk Cousins now has at least 425 passing yards and six total touchdowns in his past two games played. He's led the Vikings to numerous one-score wins in tough games against good and bad opponents alike. As long as Minnesota continues to play close games in various ways, the perception of Cousins won't budge as anything more than a good passer with complimentary weapons. He's another fade with ridiculously low +20000 odds in the NFL MVP race.

10. Christian McCaffery MVP Odds (+25000) (Bet $100 to Collect $25,100) Click here for the best odds, available at PointsBet

San Francisco traded for star running back Christian McCaffery, and it's been nothing short of a massive success. McCaffery was relegated to more of a 50/50 split with Elijah Mitchell for a couple of weeks, but now he's returned to shoulder a massive workload, logging 32 touches for the 49ers in Week 15 against Seattle. He's just as talented as a receiver, finishing with at least six receptions and 30 receiving yards in two of his past three games played. It's a great success within Kyle Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme, but McCaffery does not have a clear path to the MVP, so fade his +25000 odds accordingly.