Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 16

Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 16

Over the course of the offseason, a lot transpired for the Philadelphia Eagles. Their front office was hard at work, and that is continued throughout the earlier portions of the season. They've added bodies to the defensive side of the ball with the intent to complement what Jalen Hurts and company do via their dual-threat offense.

That was all the talk around Philly and their 12-1 start, and after another week they are another win stronger. But the thing is, their Week 15 win potentially had more downside than upside. Hurts emerged with an injury that could sideline him for a while.

What could this mean for Hurts and the Eagles' promising Super Bowl ambitions?

Super Bowl Odds For All 32 Teams Heading Into Week 16

Click Here for Super Bowl Odds

Super Bowl Odds Risers

Cincinnati Bengals Super Bowl Odds (+800) (Bet $100 to Collect $900) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel

Don't look now, but the Cincinnati Bengals are still on a roll.

Early on against the Buccaneers, it looked bleak for the Bengals to extend their win streak to six. In Tampa, Tom Brady and the Bucs got out to a 17-0 lead with a 17-3 lead after one half. Slowly but surely, though, Cincinnati got back into the game, took over the lead early in the fourth, and -- when all was said and done -- rattled off 34 straight points in an 11-point victory.

Up against a very solid defense, Joe Burrow threw for 200 yards and four scores, and while the run game didn't do much to assist, it was the defense that showed out. They only finished off one sack, but seven quarterback hits led to four Tom Brady turnovers. And as for the rush defense, it held up and limited the Bucs' attack to less than 100 yards.

According to Pro Football Focus' standards, the Bengals weren't even at their best in Tampa Bay. Their 68.6 grade on the day paled in comparison to their five previous contests, although their rush defense hit or exceeded 74.5 for the third time in four weeks. To this point, they're 17th versus the rush and 15th as a defensive unit on top of their fourth-rated offense. All in, they're the seventh-best team in the NFL.

The oddsmakers don't speak to a team's efficiency and performance, or even their standing among the league's best teams, but they do quite literally rank the team's chances at a Super Bowl win. At their improved odds, they are fifth among all teams. Their implied probability is up to 11.1% after the largest increase week to week.

Over the final three weeks, Cincinnati is on the road at New England before two straight home matchups versus Buffalo and Baltimore. If they win out, they'll take the division and push for a top-two seed alongside Buffalo and Kansas City.

Green Bay Packers Super Bowl Odds (+13000) (Bet $100 to Collect $13,100) - Click here for the best odds, available at DraftKings

There's something about Lambeau Field in December. And when I say "something" that something tends to be frigid weather and Packer wins. So far so good this year, too.

In their first home game of December, Aaron Rodgers and the team hosted the warmer weather LA Rams and came out with a 24-12 win. It was a bit of a slow burn on the scoreboard, but in the yardage column they were dominant, out-yielding Baker Mayfield and squad 345-156 with a balanced 207 passing and 138 rushing. Green Bay even withstood a pair of turnovers thanks in large part to more than 100 scrimmage yards from running back Aaron Jones.

Sure, it was against a depleted Rams team, but you only face what's in front of you. And for what they had in front of them, the Pack earned a solid 71.4 grade from PFF. That marks the fourth time in five weeks that they've been at or above a 71, and the most positive portion of that is from the balanced offense. The run game has been efficient and has done well to set up a good situation for Rodgers to pass more downfield.

For their better efforts of late, Green Bay is 6-8 and checks in at 14th in PFF's year-long ranks. They are above a 76 offensively yet below a 65 (20th in the league) defensively. Their primary weakness has been stopping the run, as they're in the bottom half of the league in both rush defense and tackling. That doesn't bode well against teams more favorable to the run game, particularly those that they'd face in a potential Wild Card matchup, but who knows what can happen.

It sure seems like the people in Vegas are giving them a bit of Rodgers' love right now. For all their flaws, the Packers had the largest raw odds jump from last week, and going back to before Week 13 when their odds were at +30000, they have come a long way. How much further can they go is the question. They draw three tough matchups down the stretch, tasked with traveling to Miami before home meetings with the Vikings and Lions in the division. It seems as if they're destined for an 8-9 record that would, in most circumstances, leave them short of a playoff bid, eliminating any chance of a dream run.

Super Bowl Odds Fallers

Philadelphia Eagles (+475) Bet $100 to Collect $575 Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel

In Week 15 the Eagles had some trouble, experiencing a scoreless first quarter with an early interception from Hurts. The MVP-caliber quarterback had his struggles in the form of another interception, but he relied heavily on his legs and produced positive plays to lead the offense to a win at the end of the day. Hurts ran for 61 yards and three scores and even exceeded 300 passing yards. The end result was a five-point win on the road and at a macro level a 13-1 record for the Eagles.

On the field, Philly's play amounted to a 69.5 rating with the defense outpacing the offense. The team's run blocking was as poorly graded as it has been all season, and there were some gaps in the passing game and in pass coverage. That wasn't the worst news, though.

The following day some big trouble revealed itself in the form of a right shoulder sprain for Hurts. He isn't going to play this Saturday on Christmas Eve (Gardner Minshew will start), and early indications are he could miss another week. There is still time before the playoffs, and Philadelphia's stellar record to this point has provided them the luxury of a three-game lead in the division and a two-game lead for the one seed in the NFC.

It would be a lie to say their odds shouldn't take a tumble given the increased danger to their standing as the one seed or even as a fully healthy team going into the postseason. A 2.6% drop in implied probability is the largest of any team from post-Week 14 to post-Week 15, but in the grand scheme, they're still right there. Philadelphia is still ahead of Kansas City, and their probability of 17.4% is within 5% of Buffalo at the top. There might be value to be had out of such negative news.

Cleveland Browns (+25000) Bet $100 to Collect $25,100 Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel

This week, there were a total of seven teams -- of those not yet eliminated from the playoffs -- that have had their odds fall after their Week 15 outcomes. By raw odds, the Saints and Browns tied with a 5000 decrease (and -0.1% implied probability). Both teams won their respective matchups, but Cleveland's performance has made for the most obvious of fallouts.

Since Deshaun Watson returned to the field, the Browns have been very inconsistent as an offense. Against Houston, Cincinnati and Baltimore, they've posted offensive grades of 66.1, 55.4, and 71.5. Built around Watson's arm, the passing attack was really bad in the two games prior to the one against the Ravens. There was more efficiency even despite three sacks of Watson, who only threw for 161 yards and a touchdown. He failed to reach 25 rushing yards for the second time in three weeks to boot.

It's a lot of experimenting at this point, but so far the vibes haven't been great. The offense performed much more efficiently under Jacoby Brissett, and the defense isn't helping matters. Though they've held their last three opponents to 40 total points, they haven't made it to a 70 grade and were especially awful against Baltimore's run-centric approach.

In what has trended toward a lost season because of Watson's suspension, the Browns are three games back of Baltimore in second in the North, while they are a considerable longshot -- at +1400 -- to even make it into the field of 14 teams. Their 0.4% implied probability at a Super Bowl ring is very much an accurate reflection of the chain of events that would have to play out in order to give them any kind of shot at it.

Already have DraftKings and FanDuel? Looking for a new sportsbook? We have a great offer for you below! Just click claim now and get started with a great new sportsbook to use on the NFL.