NFL Quarterback Rankings: Ranking the Top 10 NFL Quarterbacks Heading into Week 17

NFL Quarterback Rankings: Ranking the Top 10 NFL Quarterbacks Heading into Week 17

With 16 weeks of NFL football in the rearview mirror, the playoff picture is finally starting to clarify itself. In the AFC, three teams have risen above the rest: Buffalo, Kansas City, and Cincinnati. The LA Chargers and Ravens have also secured wildcard spots. Beyond those five, though, the conference's situation is reasonably murky, with six teams in contention for the remaining two playoff spots.

In the NFC, we have four likely division winners in Philadelphia, San Francisco, Minnesota, and Tampa Bay. Dallas has secured the top wildcard spot at minimum, while five teams are fighting it out for the other two spots. It will be a captivating finish to the season, no doubt.

Want to place a bet on the NFL this week? Click here to claim over $5,000 worth of sports betting bonuses for any NFL game this week!

This season has been one of the worst in recent memory in terms of league-wide quarterback play — well over 60 quarterbacks have started at least one NFL game this year. The list of quarterbacks starting this week includes Joshua Dobbs, Colt McCoy, Nick Foles, Jarrett Stidham, and Desmond Ridder, among other non-starter-worthy QBs. The decreasing average level of QB play has, in turn, made it a bit easier to formulate a top-10 list. The true difference-makers have distinguished themselves from the pack, while some middle-of-the-pack quarterbacks in the midst of solid seasons have snuck onto the list. Here are my top 10 quarterbacks of the 2022 NFL season, ranked based on performance over the course of the year while factoring in the relevant surrounding context.

NFL Quarterback Rankings

1. Patrick Mahomes - KC MVP Odds (-400) Bet $100 to collect $125. BetRivers has the best odds, click here to bet

Patrick Mahomes is the odds-on favorite to win league MVP, a distinction he has held for a number of weeks now. Despite trading superstar receiver Tyreek Hill in the spring, Kansas City has generated the most yards per game of any offense in the league; they are second in points scored. Mahomes has been the driver of that success — he leads all quarterbacks in terms of QB rating, EPA per dropback, passing TDs, and passing yards per game. His offensive line has been solid but unspectacular, his core of wide receivers is below league average across the board, and his defense has been poor. Still, Kansas City has already clinched their division, is in the hunt for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and is among the top tier in terms of Super Bowl odds. The Chiefs are the rare team whose success can be almost fully attributed to a single player; Mahomes deserves the first spot on this list.

2. Josh Allen - BUF MVP Odds (+1500) Bet $100 to collect $1600. PointsBet has the best odds, click here to bet

I had Josh Allen squarely ranked as the second-best quarterback after Week 15, and his Week 16 performance did nothing to alter that ranking. Allen did throw two interceptions against the Bears, but I'm willing to discount them for two reasons: the game was played in poor weather conditions (cold and windy), and the Buffalo Bills still scored 35 points en route to a relatively comfortable win. Allen has had perhaps his best season in the NFL to date; among year-long starters, he currently ranks top three in passing touchdowns, EPA per drop back, and QB rating. He will comfortably finish as an MVP finalist, and deservingly so — spare for Mahomes, no quarterback has been better.

3. Jalen Hurts - PHI MVP Odds (+1100) Bet $100 to collect $1200. FanDuel has the best odds, click here to bet

Jalen Hurts did not play in Week 16 due to his shoulder injury, so my position on him hasn't changed. His MVP odds may have plummeted post-injury, but he has absolutely been an effective quarterback when playing. Hurts has, without question, played a key role in Philadelphia's (likely) march to the NFC's top seed. However, the Eagles have the best offensive line in the league, a top-5 receiver in A.J. Brown, a budding star in DeVonta Smith, and a great tight end in Dallas Goedert. They also have the fifth-ranked defense in terms of both DVOA and EPA per play. Therefore, Hurts needs to be ranked with an eye toward that context, rather than exclusively looking at his statistics. He lands in the third spot on the list almost by default — Hurts has been too good to drop him below the likes of Joe Burrow, especially given Burrow's mediocre second-half showing in Week 16, but not good enough to put him on the Mahomes/Allen level.

4. Joe Burrow - CIN MVP Odds (+800) Bet $100 to collect $900. PointsBet has the best odds, click here to bet

This season, Burrow has put together his best year in the NFL, far better than the 2021 campaign that received mountains of praise. In 2022, among all NFL starters, he ranks second in passing touchdowns and passing yards per game, sixth in EPA per drop back, and eighth in QB rating. He did have a shaky second half against New England in Week 16, but he and the Bengals managed to escape with the win. Beyond that game, Burrow has been outstanding for the better part of the last three months, leading the Bengals on an 11-2 run over which he has thrown 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He is the biggest reason why Cincinnati is still in contention for the No. 1 seed in the AFC — his battle with Allen and the Bills next Monday night is a must-watch.

Right now at DraftKings, you get $200 for registering for an account in Ohio. There is no deposit needed, they're just giving you $200 for signing up!

5. Justin Herbert - LAC MVP Odds (+30000) Bet $100 to collect $30,100. FanDuel has the best odds, click here to bet

I mentioned before that Jalen Hurts' value is difficult to quantify due to the strength of the pieces around him. On the other side of that coin, Justin Herbert's statistics need to be taken with a grain of salt due to the injuries that key Chargers have sustained over the course of the season. Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Rashawn Slater, and other cornerstones have all missed extended time; the Chargers are nonetheless 9-6. With the offense finally inching closer to full health in recent weeks, Herbert and co. have looked quite good. While Herbert did not register a touchdown pass against the Colts in Week 16, he completed over 77% of his passes (some of which were jaw-dropping in their velocity and accuracy) en route to a comfortable win. Of the non-juggernauts in the AFC (i.e. everyone besides BUF, KC, and CIN), I would contend that the Chargers are the most likely to surprise people by making a deep playoff run — having a quarterback of this caliber creates upside that other teams simply do not possess.

6. Tua Tagovailoa - MIA MVP Odds (+40000) Bet $100 to collect $40,100. PointsBet has the best odds, click here to bet

This is the point on the list where the quarterbacks start to become harder to sort. My player-based model has Tua Tagovailoa ranked as the sixth-best QB through 16 weeks, an assessment that seems approximately fair. Much of his efficiency metrics look fantastic — Tua ranks third in QB rating, second in EPA per drop back, and first in passer rating. However, those numbers are probably a fair bit inflated due to a month-long stretch where most of his production came, frankly, from hitting wide-open receivers (see: Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle) against some of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Since that stretch concluded, Tua has largely struggled, and he ultimately suffered yet another concussion last week that put the rest of his season in doubt. I can't justify putting him higher than sixth, nor can I rank any of the below quarterbacks above him. As such, this is where he lands.

7. Trevor Lawrence - JAX MVP Odds (+50000) Bet $100 to collect $50,100. Caesars has the best odds, click here to bet

In Week 16, Trevor Lawrence continued his run of strong play, completing 20-of-31 pass attempts and leading the Jaguars to an easy win over the Jets. In Lawrence's last seven games, he has thrown for 14 touchdowns and just one interception, bringing the Jags from an all-but-lost season to a Week 18 win away from hosting a playoff game. It's also worth noting that Jacksonville has the sixth-worst defense in the NFL in terms of DVOA. The fact that the team has won four of their last five in spite of such a desultory defense is remarkable, an achievement that can be partially, if not most, attributed to Lawrence's breakout.

8. Jared Goff - DET MVP Odds (OTB)

Based on my model's rankings, there is a tier break after the top seven, with Jared Goff sitting at the front of the 8-10 tier. Goff wasn't horrible in Week 16 against the Panthers, but he did not do enough to secure the victory in a game that Detroit basically needed to win. It would not be fair to overly punish him for one middling performance, given that his overall body of work this season is strong. Indeed, he ranks seventh in QB rating and passer rating, sixth in passing touchdowns, and eighth in EPA per dropback. Goff's play has been good enough to keep the Lions' offense — a unit that has carried the team all season — running at a high level of production (fifth in points/game, fourth in total yards/game).

9. Dak Prescott - DAL MVP Odds (+50000) Bet $100 to collect $50,100. Caesars has the best odds, click here to bet

I have long felt that Dak Prescott is one of the more under-appreciated quarterbacks in the NFL, and my model agrees. In fact, the model has Prescott as the seventh-best QB this season on a per-game basis, a ranking that necessitates a downgrade due to his month-long injury absence. Going through his statistics, Dak ranks fifth in EPA per dropback, sixth in QB rating, and 11th in passing touchdowns (despite missing four games). He does have a tendency to throw a pick or two per game, but he has clearly earned a spot on this list.

10. Geno Smith - SEA MVP Odds (+50000) Bet $100 to collect $50,100. Caesars has the best odds, click here to bet

The Seahawks have lost five of their last six games, putting their playoff hopes in imminent danger. Over that six-game span, Geno Smith threw five interceptions and lost three fumbles, blunders that no doubt contributed to those losses. However, Smith has still been pretty good over the course of the year. He ranks top 5 in terms of QB rating, passer rating, and passing touchdowns. Seattle's defense has not been particularly good, yet the team is still in playoff contention due to an offense that ranks 10th in points scored per game. Smith may slide off of this list with another weak performance, but no matter what happens over these last two weeks, he has undoubtedly exceeded all reasonable expectations for his 2022 season.

Are you already signed up at DraftKings and FanDuel, hit 'CLAIM NOW' on the amazing offer below to bet on NFL Week 17!