Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 17

Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 17

As much as any team, 2022 has been a year of runs for the Green Bay Packers. After an opening Week 1 loss, they ripped off three straight only to then lose five consecutive games, including three straight on the road. They proceeded to win one then lose two, lending some doubt to their rest-of-season outlook and championship chances.

Since then, Aaron Rodgers and his young receivers have rounded into form, tallying three straight wins, including one this past week against a division rival.

What can we expect from the Pack in the final two games, and what did their recent win do for their movement toward a playoff push and potential Super Bowl berth?

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Super Bowl Odds For All 32 Teams Heading Into Week 17

Super Bowl Odds Risers

Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl Odds (+500) (Bet $100 to Collect $600) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel

The Chiefs have been no stranger to this article of late. Since late October they have really rounded into form and have been inching their way toward the top spot in the sportsbooks' championship betting odds. This isn't the most favorable their odds have been, peaking at +400 a few weeks back, but nevertheless, they have now inched their way past an ailing Philadelphia Eagles team and no one any longer stands in the way of them and the Bills with only two games remaining.

This past Saturday, the Chiefs didn't do much in the way of winning with style or pulling out a close win, but they did simply take care of business. In their 24-10 home win over Seattle, they were actually outgained in total yardage as Patrick Mahomes completed a mere 16 passes. But the offense did enough to enable the defense to disrupt Seattle, turn them over on one occasion, and keep Geno Smith and the team from sustaining drives on third down (the Seahawks were 2-for-14).

If any one particular area shined for Kansas City, it was their pass rush. Though they only had two sacks on the board, the Chiefs added three more quarterback hits (three from a dominant Chris Jones) and notched 11 total hurries. Their 81.7 pass-rush grade was their best of the year to date, according to Pro Football Focus. It outshined a solid day from the secondary and only came up short of what they were able to do from a pass-blocking perspective.

It seems like it's happening again. On the year, Kansas City's defense is now seventh in overall grade, and though they're 16th in opponent scoring they have held teams to 17 or fewer points in four of the eight games they've played since the bye. They have six grades above 70 in that span, compared to only one in their first eight contests.

Thanks to the league's seventh-best defense and the second-rated offense, the Chiefs are PFF's third-best team by overall grade (behind the Eagles and 49ers). Their implied championship probability of 16.7% only trails the Bills and is tied with the Eagles going into Week 17. In Weeks 17 and 18, they draw Denver and Las Vegas, so a 14-3 finish is likely and could push them past Buffalo for the ever-important top seed in the AFC.

Green Bay Packers Super Bowl Odds (+5000) (Bet $100 to Collect $5,100) - Click here for the best odds, available at DraftKings

They're back again, everybody! After a few weeks in the "Fallers" category, the Packers have slowly but surely worked their way into joining the "Risers". After seeing their championship odds lengthen to +30000 four weeks ago, Aaron Rodgers and his squad have been putting in work with three straight wins.

Their most recent win was as impressive as any, as they suffocated Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins on the road and emerged with a six-point win on Christmas Day. The result? Their odds improved by +8000 and their implied probability to 2%. They are 12th among all teams and have now surpassed the likes of the Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, and New York Giants, two of which are fellow NFC playoff contenders.

That's the result, but what about the reason? Green Bay was OK in the first half, but in the second half, they were dominant, besting Miami 13-0 and finishing with three interceptions of Tagovailoa to close it all out in the fourth quarter. But according to the PFF grades, it wasn't a whole lot to do with the Packers' defensive coverage and more to do with Tua and the Dolphins' poor execution. Their defense barely exceeded 65, while the offense was an efficient 71.2. It's the fourth straight week with a grade north of 70, and on the year this maturing unit is 11th (the defense is 21st).

It's great to see the young receiving corps excelling, but it's more worrisome that they're now dealing with injuries to Rodgers, running back Aaron Jones and receiver Christian Watson. If any of those three are out for the next week or two, that complicates things for Green Bay's playoff chances.

On the plus side, they'll remain at Lambeau until the end of the regular season, playing host to the Vikings and Lions. They're two very winnable games that could put Green Bay on track to enter the playoffs as a Wild Card. And with Rodgers, who knows what can happen once they're in?

Super Bowl Odds Fallers

Cincinnati Bengals (+900) Bet $100 to Collect $575 Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel

After being a riser on the heels of a Week 15 win over Tampa Bay, the Bengals have somehow fallen after a second straight win -- this time over the New England Patriots. In the win, Cincinnati led all the way through and held off with a 22-18 W in Foxboro. So, if the Bengals were at +800 last week, then what gives?

For starters, Cincy didn't win with any style points that don't do much in the standings but would seemingly impress the oddsmakers. They allowed the Pats to reel off 18 straight and totaled only 118 net yards in the second half. Joe Burrow threw one of his two interceptions, and Jamarr Chase fumbled, letting the door open for New England.

The worst of the two might just be that starting right tackle La'el Collins suffered a season-ending knee injury. A solidified line will now be tasked with working around a backup, especially against good pass-rushing teams.

In the final two games of the year, the Bengals will be up against the Bills and Ravens, who rank fifth and 19th in pass rush grade, respectively. Beyond that, they can face one -- if not both -- of those teams in the AFC playoffs, as well as top-10 pass rush teams like the Chiefs and Dolphins. It's not impossible to see why oddsmakers would bump them down despite their winning ways.

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Las Vegas Raiders (+100000) Bet $100 to Collect $100,100 Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel

Despite a tough first season under Josh McDaniels, the Las Vegas Raiders have still not been eliminated from the playoffs. Their ridiculously fortunate outcome against the Patriots has kept them in this spot, but it's tough to see them turning things around after their Week 16 loss to the Steelers.

On the road in Pittsburgh on Christmas Eve night, the now 6-9 Raiders were two-point underdogs and fulfilled that billing. They dropped the game 13-10 as Derek Carr failed to hit 200 yards with three picks to one touchdown on the evening. Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams were both held intact, while the defense failed to do enough to shield Kenny Pickett and company from the win.

The grade and production from the pass offense was bad enough (along with probable contractual considerations) for Josh McDaniels to bench Carr for the final two games in favor of Jarrett Stidham. Stidham will face the Niners and Chiefs in very likely losses for Las Vegas. The Raiders will be sent home for the postseason and eye improvement next year. They've virtually eliminated themselves given their standing and schedule.

Still, it's worth noting that they held on longer than the Cleveland Browns, who fell out of contention after being listed at +25000 a week ago. That has to amount to some credit, right?

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