2023 NFL MVP Race: Patrick Mahomes Unseats Tua Tagovailoa Again in NFL MVP Odds Heading Into Week 8
2023 NFL MVP race and MVP odds breakdown. Patrick Mahomes unseats Tua Tagovailoa again in NFL MVP odds heading into Week 8. NFL handicapper Matt MacKay takes a closer look at the NFL MVP odds.
Matt MacKay - October 24, 2023, 10:15 AM EDT
9 min2023 NFL MVP Race: Patrick Mahomes Unseats Tua Tagovailoa Again in NFL MVP Odds Heading Into Week 8
The NFL is the gift that keeps on giving, offering parity at nearly every turn during Week 7. Mac Jones and the New England Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills, Lamar Jackson enjoyed a career day against the Detroit Lions, Patrick Mahomes rounded into form with 424 passing yards and four touchdowns against the Chargers, and Brock Purdy threw two interceptions and only one touchdown, suffering a second consecutive loss on the road against the Minnesota Vikings.
Due to these outcomes, we've seen some massive movement in the NFL MVP odds market. Mahomes is alone at the top, comfortably sitting at +240, while he was joined by Tua Tagovailoa at +340 a week ago. Speaking of Tagovailoa and the Dolphins, their offense came to a halt against the Eagles on Sunday Night Football late in the game, as Philadelphia made them one-dimensional and eliminated their rushing attack against a banged-up Miami offensive line. Now, Tagovailoa has dropped to +450, while Jalen Hurts' strong outing has elevated him to +450.
NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is here to share his latest analysis on how to bet the current 2023 NFL MVP odds ahead of Week 8.
2023 NFL MVP Odds
Player | NFL MVP Odds | Stock Watch | Implied Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
Patrick Mahomes | +240 | Up | 29.41% |
Tua Tagovailoa | +450 | Down | 18.18% |
Jalen Hurts | +450 | Up | 18.18% |
Lamar Jackson | +700 | Up | 12.5% |
Josh Allen | +1000 | Down | 9.09% |
Click here for the latest NFL MVP odds
NFL MVP RACE INTO WEEK 8
Patrick Mahomes (+240) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Mahomes NFL MVP odds
We saw vintage Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce on full display in Week 7, as the two-time MVP signal-caller completed 76 percent of his pass attempts for 424 yards and four touchdowns. Mahomes attempted 42 passes, a season-high, recording a 9.5 touchdown percentage when passing, which was also a record for this season. He has yet to be sacked more than twice in a game this year, so as long as Mahomes has a clean pocket and relies on his mobility to extend plays downfield, he'll be in line for his third MVP. +240 could quickly turn to +100 or minus odds, so let's wager this number while it still exists ahead of games against Denver and Miami.
Tua Tagovailoa (+450) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Tua NFL MVP odds
The road loss to Philadelphia was expected, based on the odds, but Tua Tagovailoa only wound up recording 216 passing yards and one touchdown, along with an interception. Playing behind a depleted offensive line doesn't help, but Tagovailoa's schedule gets increasingly tougher against the Patriots and Chiefs. +450 could turn into +600 or longer, which is more valuable, so let's hold off on betting Tagovailoa's MVP odds until we see how he performs against these two tough defenses before heading into a Week 10 Bye.
Jalen Hurts (+450) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Hurts NFL MVP odds
Jalen Hurts overcame an early miscue with a turnover that led to six points for Miami by launching deep targets downfield to star wideout A.J. Brown. Hurts also relied on his ability to execute the "Brotherly Shove" at the goal-line, continuing to score rushing touchdowns. Hurts completed 74.2 percent of his pass attempts, recording just two passing touchdowns for the second time this season, while finishing with a 109.4 passer rating, also his second best mark through seven games. Hurts should be able to put up big numbers against a reeling Washington secondary in Week 8, while a marquee matchup between the Eagles and Cowboys in Week 9 could launch Hurts up the MVP odds race with his first win over Dak Prescott. Betting Hurts at +450 is a good choice, but holding also makes sense, especially if he struggles against either divisional opponent in his upcoming schedule.
Lamar Jackson (+700) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Lamar NFL MVP odds
Lamar Jackson just recorded arguably the best win of his career, playoffs included, against a 5-1 Detroit defense that had been dominating opponents this season. Jackson completed 77 percent of his passes for 357 yards and four total touchdowns, adding one as a ball carrier, while finishing with a 155.7 passer rating. OC Todd Monken's play-calling is finally gaining some steam, plus Jackson continues to handle between six to 14 carries per game, keeping that explosive ability he possesses running the football. If Jackson can continue playing this well as a passer, a second MVP season could unfold. Let's bet on Jackson at +700 before he faces a good matchup against the Cardinals in Week 8.
Josh Allen (+1000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Allen NFL MVP odds
Something is amiss in Buffalo's offense this season. They barely held on to beat a rag-tag Giants team, while New England stifled Josh Allen's late-game heroics. Yes, he's scored a rushing touchdown in four of his past five games, while throwing at least two touchdowns in four consecutive outings, but the one-dimensional Bills offense has seemingly returned. A short week could be just what Allen needs to bounce back, but he'll face Tampa Bay's defense on Thursday night, which isn't a cake walk by any stretch. +1000 is the best value we've received on Allen in weeks, so betting this number does make sense. However, with how well other quarterbacks above him have been playing lately, holding until we see another strong outing from Allen, like we did against the Dolphins in Week 4, is also a good strategy.
NFL Odds
