NFL Receiving Record Odds: Can Tyreek Hill or AJ Brown Break the NFL Yards Record?
The 2023 NFL season is halfway complete, and a couple superstar receivers have been lighting up the stat sheet. Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown are on a quest to top the NFL in receiving yards, but can they break the record in the process?
Peter Alexis - November 2, 2023, 12:08 PM EDT
5NFL Receiving Record Odds: Can Tyreek Hill or A.J. Brown Break the NFL Yards Record?
Tyreek Hill is the first NFL player to earn 1,000 receiving yards through eight games in over 50 years, garnering him AFC Player of the Month honors. Will he keep up this torrid pace, or can A.J. Brown pass him as they pursue the single-season yards record?
Calvin Johnson currently holds the record for most receiving yards in an NFL season, set back in 2012 when he recorded 1,964 for the Detroit Lions.
Cooper Kupp came within 18 yards of Johnson in 2021 while playing with the Los Angeles Rams, unsurprisingly with the same quarterback, Matthew Stafford. He also played in one more game than Johnson.
The league changed to a 17-game schedule in 2021, allowing the chance for these records to be shattered. It hasn't happened in the first two years, but could Tyreek Hill or A.J. Brown get it done this year? Let's take a look at the odds and breakdown through the first half of the season.
NFL Receiving Record Odds
Player | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
Tyreek Hill | +300 | 25% |
A.J. Brown | +400 | 20% |
Both | +1500 | 6.3% |
Tyreek Hill Odds to Break the Record
Tyreek Hill leads the odds between the two stars, but only slightly. He is listed at +300 to break the record according to BetUS, giving him an implied chance of 25% to get it done.
Hill was adamant before the season that he could rewrite the history books, especially with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback for the Dolphins.
"I will break 2,000 yards next year, bro," Hill said on his podcast in June.
Tyreek Hill has 1,014 yards through the first eight games, averaging 126.75 yards per game. To break the record, he would need to average 105.7 yards per game across Miami's final nine contests, a very doable task based on his current pace.
He is favored in the odds to lead the NFL in receiving yards, record or not, with -110 odds. A.J. Brown is chasing him at +350, but no other player is close as of now.
Tyreek Hill had the most yards per route run in a single season over the past three at 3.33. A record-breaker will run roughly 600 routes, so 3.3 is approximately what it will take, according to ESPN Analytics.
His team sits with a 6-2 record and atop the AFC East, but they have yet to beat a team with a record above .500. Hill is currently in Germany getting ready for a major international showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs, where his ability to break the record could come into focus.
If the Dolphins can beat the Chiefs as a slight underdog and Hill can rack up over 100 yards against a top-2 passing defense, the sky is the limit for his chances at the record.
A.J. Brown Odds to Break the Record
A.J. Brown closely follows Hill with his odds of +400, giving him a 20% chance to break the record.
Unlike Hill's erratic stats, Brown has been the modicum of consistency as the season has heated up. He has recorded six-straight games of 100+ receiving yards, with all but one going over 130 yards.
He added five touchdowns in that span, and he currently has the third-best odds to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns. Brown also has the third-best odds to win Offensive Player of the Year at +800, behind only Hill and Christian McCaffrey.
Over the past three seasons combined, no one has recorded more yards per route run vs. man than A.J. Brown, at 3.43. He ranked third in the Receiver Tracking Metrics' Overall Score (83) in that span, too, per ESPN analytics.
The Eagles are hosting the Dallas Cowboys in a highly-anticipated NFC East battle on Sunday afternoon. If Brown can help the Eagles get a victory before their bye week and add another 100-yard game, he will certainly prove his ability to hunt down this record.
Brown is expected to be covered by top-ranked defensive back Daron Bland of the Cowboys, and will have his work cut out for him after this hot streak. He has 939 yards through eight games, meaning he will have to average 118 ypg through the final nine to surpass Johnson.
Keep an eye on this week's top showdowns, as A.J. Brown and Tyreek Hill will try to separate themselves from the pack against two vaunted defenses.
NFL Odds
