2023 NFL MVP Race: Jalen Hurts Closing In on MVP Leader Patrick Mahomes Ahead of Week 10

2023 NFL MVP Race: Jalen Hurts Closing In on MVP Leader Patrick Mahomes Ahead of Week 10

The continuously shifting NFL MVP odds have seen a rotating cast of prospects join the top ranks each week this season. Patrick Mahomes remains atop the MVP odds by a slight margin at +240, doing just enough to beat Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins in Frankfurt, Germany 21-14.

Jalen Hurts finally beat Dak Prescott for the first time head-to-head in his career in Week 9, completing 73 percent of his pass attempts foe 207 yards and two touchdowns, while also accounting for another rushing touchdown using the highly effective "Brotherly Shove" at the goal line. The Eagles are the lone 8-1 team in the NFL through nine weeks of action, putting Hurts at +320 odds, slightly higher than +350 prior to the Eagles' win over Dallas.

Tagovailoa and the Dolphins inability to beat great teams on the road continued, dropping the Miami signal caller from third in the NFL MVP race a week ago at +370, down to +650. Burrow's strong outing against Buffalo resulted in 31-44 for 348 yards and two touchdowns, boosting his NFL MVP odds from outside the top-five into +900 to sit alone in fifth-place this week.

Lamar Jackson didn't even have to record a passing or rushing touchdown to climb higher in the MVP odds race after thrashing Seattle 37-3 in Week 9. Jackson's passing efficiency, combined with his rushing ability, recording 10 carries for 60 rushing yards against the Seahawks, plus no interceptions in three consecutive games, is a big reason why he's sitting so high for a potential second NFL MVP award.

Josh Allen's NFL MVP odds remain neutral at +1400 despite losing to Burrow and the Bengals for a second consecutive head-to-head matchup. Allen completed 68 percent of his passes for 258 yards and a touchdown, adding another rushing touchdown with his legs, while throwing a bad interception that put the Bills behind schedule early in their loss to Cincinnati.

NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is here to give us his latest analysis on how to bet the current 2023 NFL MVP odds going into Week 10.

2023 NFL MVP Odds

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NFL MVP Race Into Week 10

Patrick Mahomes (+240) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Mahomes MVP odds

No one said it had to be pretty, but Patrick Mahomes is willing his team to wins in a variety of non-aesthetic ways on offense, while leaning on his top-five defense for support. Mahomes has only thrown two touchdowns in the last two games he's played, but he did manage to throw two early touchdown passes to give the Chiefs a 14-0 lead that they held for the rest of the game.

The two-time NFL MVP and Super Bowl MVP winner promised after the game that the Chiefs' offense will continue to improve. Mahomes has a Bye before hosting the Philadelphia Eagles in a Super Bowl rematch in Week 11, where his MVP odds could dry up even more with another key win over the Eagles. Betting +240 could be a great value compared to where his odds may move following a win over Philadelphia, so go ahead and place your bets while this number is still on the board.

Jalen Hurts (+320) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Hurts MVP odds

We've seen Jalen Hurts develop into a fantastic pocket passer throughout his four-year NFL career. He was busy dealing touchdowns on Sunday afternoon, finding wideouts Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown, while rushing 10 times for 36 yards and a goal-line touchdown despite playing through a bone bruise on his knee.

Hurts has a 68.9 percent completion rate through nine games, the best mark of his career, so as long as he avoids sitting out games down the stretch like he did a year ago as the MVP frontrunner, he could make a push and jump Mahomes in the MVP odds race if he goes into Arrowhead Stadium and beats the Chiefs in Week 11. If he doesn't win that game against an elite Chiefs defense though, +320 bettors will be regretful, so taking +320 indicates a bettor feels confident in Hurts' ability to beat the Chiefs on the road following the Bye. At +320, I'm willing to wait out this number, especially with upcoming games that include Buffalo, San Francisco, and Dallas on the road.

Lamar Jackson (+500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Jackson MVP odds

It hasn't been the 2019 version of Lamar Jackson that won the NFL MVP award, but we've seen the Ravens' franchise quarterback make huge strides under first-year OC Todd Monken. Jackson hasn't produced elite passing numbers since shredding Detroit for 357 yards and three touchdowns in Week 7, but he's been an efficient game manager, avoiding interceptions in six of the nine games he's played.

Jackson has dealt with a few fumbling issues though, while he's only recorded one rushing touchdown in the last five games after scoring four in a two-week span against the Colts and Browns. This is likely due to the front office investing in Jackson via a lucrative contract extension this offseason, forcing Gus Edwards and other running backs into the ball carrier role. As long as Jackson and the Ravens keep winning, he'll be lingering near the top of the NFL MVP odds race. +500 is good value, but a rematch against Myles Garrett and the Browns in Week 10 will be a good litmus test for whether or not Jackson is impervious to great defenses. If he routs Cleveland for a second time this season, we need to pounce on Jackson's MVP odds after Week 10.

Tua Tagovailoa (+650) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Tua MVP odds

Miami's high-octane offense has been great against bad and pedestrian defenses but it's been a completely different narrative facing defenses like Philadelphia, Kansas City, and Buffalo. Tua Tagovailoa's numbers dip against these elite defensive units, as he's only registered one passing touchdown against each of these opponents, leading to all three of the Dolphins' losses.

Tagovailoa's lack of rushing upside and mobility in the pocket to extend plays is becoming an increasingly problematic piece of the offense. A banged up offensive line does him no favors, but a get-right spot against the Raiders could send his odds back into the +500 range with another three touchdown outing and a win over Las Vegas in Week 11 following Miami's Week 10 Bye.

For now, let's hold off on betting Tagovailoa's MVP odds, as he's yet to prove himself against the league's best defenses. The Jets, Cowboys, and Ravens are still on the schedule though, so if Tagovailoa can muster up enough production and big-time throws to win those games against top-tier defenses, that's the time to strike, even with lower odds than we're getting right now.

Joe Burrow (+900) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Burrow MVP odds

Turns out the calf injury bothering Joe Burrow really did impact his overall performance on the field. A couple of weeks removed from an injury designation, the Bengals' franchise quarterback is back to playing at an elite level. Burrow has thrown for over 315 passing yards in two of his past four games, while beating San Francisco on the road and continuing to dominate Buffalo following his Week 9 win at home in prime time over the Bills.

Burrow shredded Buffalo with a 70 percent completion rate, 348 yards, and two touchdowns, which went to his tight ends. He doesn't need any rushing upside or his best wideouts to bail him out. Burrow's +900 MVP odds look spectacular to bet on right now, especially ahead of a Week 10 contest against Houston's secondary, which could turn into another monster game for the Bengals' signal caller, shortening his MVP odds into the +700 range. Let's bet on Burrow now while the value is intact on a player with an upward trajectory.

Josh Allen (+1400) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Allen MVP odds

Josh Allen's miscues continue to be a burden on Buffalo's ability to win big games. Allen has thrown for over 260 yards in five of his past six games, while racking up rushing touchdowns, recording six in his past seven outings. Still, the interceptions and fumbles are a glaring issue.

Oddsmakers didn't drop Allen from +1400 despite losing to Cincinnati in Week 9 on the road. Allen's upcoming schedule includes the Broncos, Jets, and Eagles before going on Bye. All three of these defenses look much improved and while Allen can still make a push for the NFL MVP by putting up 300 yards and three touchdowns in all remaining games, the Bills' one-dimensional offense, combined with its leaky defense, make it a tough bet to place right now. +1400 is likely the best value we'll get with Allen, so betting this number makes sense from an ROI context, but his games out of the Bye Week include the Chiefs and Cowboys. Let's hold off on betting Allen's MVP odds until further notice.

NFL Odds

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