Super Bowl 59 Receiving Matchups Breakdown, Props to Target for Chiefs vs. Eagles
Super Bowl LIX features passing game stars aplenty for both the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles across WR, TE, and RB. But who has a great matchup and who's facing a challenge on defense? Tera Roberts looks at the likes of Saquon Barkley, Travis Kelce, DeVonta Smith, and more in this Super Bowl 59 Receiving Props Breakdown for Chiefs vs. Eagles.
Tera Roberts - February 9, 2025, 11:30 AM EST
5 minSuper Bowl 59 Receiving Matchups Breakdown & Props to Target for Chiefs vs. Eagles
Let’s call a spade a spade - the Eagles’ pass catchers have a clear edge in defensive matchups in Super Bowl LIX this Sunday.
The departure of L’Jarius Sneed to Tennessee caused the Chiefs’ secondary to take a step back from 2023. The Eagles, on the other hand, took their 2023 pass defense weakness and made significant upgrades. Rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have developed quickly, creating one of the most formidable secondaries in the leagues.
Given the significant difference in pass defenses, how are we approaching receiving props this week?
Let's take a look at the lines and matchups I'm eyeing along with what the oddschecker AI-powered insights have to say about which current lines are value bets.
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Chiefs vs Eagles AI Projected Game & Receiving Prop Super Bowl Value Bets
Super Bowl 59 Date, Time, and Where To Watch
- Date: February 9, 2024
- Time: 6:30 pm ET
- Where To Watch: FOX
Super Bowl LIX Receiving Props to Target: Chiefs vs. Eagles
DeVonta Smith Over 49.5 Rec Yds
The playoffs haven’t been particularly kind to Smith. He’s had exactly four receptions in the past three games for 55, 11, and 45 yards. A.J. Brown is coming off a dominating performance and Dallas Goedert has played a critical role throughout the playoffs. Perhaps that makes you weary of Smith, but this is an excellent week to lean into him.
While I expect Philadelphia to continue to lean on Saquon Barkley, the Eagles receivers are well-positioned to hit the Over on props. A.J. Brown should see Trent McDuffie - the more difficult matchup - while Smith should face Chamarri Conner. Brown could still have the bigger performance, but the safer bet is on Smith given the edge in his matchup.
Saquon Barkley Over 14.5 Rec Yds
This line originally came out at 10.5 and was way more appealing than where it's climbed to now. Checkdowns haven’t exactly been prevalent for Barkley in the Eagles offense, but the yardage potential is there. Kansas City’s defense has been stout against the run all season long, but that won’t stop the Eagles from leaning aggressively on the ground game.
With the Chiefs focused on stopping Barkley on the ground, the Eagles could use the pass to get Barkley in open space and a line of 14.5 receiving yards is reasonable on one catch. That said, see if you can get a lower alt line where the odds haven't shortened too much or keep an eye on any shifts back down as we get closer to kickoff.
Travis Kelce Over 62.5 Rec Yds
Betting on Travis Kelce this week is essentially betting on Andy Reid. When the moment is big and the Chiefs need a guarantee, they’ve shown they will lean aggressively on Kelce. Given Xavier Worthy’s lack of experience and Hollywood Brown’s lack of time with the team, Kelce should lead the way for the Chiefs. When looking at the Eagles’ coverage for Kelce versus the receivers, Kelce does have the advantage. If I’m betting the Over on any Chiefs’ pass catcher this week, it’s Kelce or the running backs.
Hollywood Brown Under 40.5 Rec Yds
The most difficult matchups in the Eagles’ secondary come from the rookie corners and Brown should see a significant amount of DeJean. Since returning from IR, Brown has seen a significant increase in usage, but the past two games have been a bit of a letdown as the Chiefs shifted post-season priorities. If the line was a bit lower, I could lean into it. However, 40.5 feels a bit aggressive with momentum shifting back to Kelce and Xavier Worthy, in addition to DeJean playing at such a high level.
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