NFL MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes New Favorite After Josh Allen, Bills Lose Consecutive Games
The Chiefs are slowly taking over the league again despite a slow start, and it's largely thanks to Patrick Mahomes stepping up in prime time. He's now the MVP favorite after surpassing Josh Allen and the reeling Bills, while Baker Mayfield is making a case of his own to round out the top 3. Peter Alexis breaks down the NFL MVP race after Week 6.
Peter Alexis - October 14, 2025, 1:20 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadNFL MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes Takes Over MVP Race, Baker Mayfield Closes Gap in Third
The NFL MVP race is starting to take shape after six weeks, and there has been a major shakeup at the top of the board. Patrick Mahomes has officially overtaken Josh Allen as the new favorite following a commanding Sunday Night Football win over the Detroit Lions. The Chiefs' offense finally looked like its old self again, and Mahomes delivered one of his most efficient outings of the season. Meanwhile, Josh Allen and the Bills suffered another tough loss on Monday night, marking their second straight defeat and putting their hold on the AFC East in serious jeopardy.
Across the league, most of the favorites held serve in Week 6, but it was Baker Mayfield who once again made the biggest statement. The veteran quarterback continued his breakout campaign, carrying an injury-depleted Buccaneers offense to another gritty win and boosting Tampa Bay to a 5-1 record. His continued consistency has now vaulted him into the top three of the MVP market, with oddsmakers finally treating him as a legitimate threat to Mahomes and Allen.
With the season nearing its midpoint, the picture is beginning to clear, but several storylines still hang in the balance. Mahomes’ return to form has steadied Kansas City’s season, Allen’s struggles have cracked Buffalo’s momentum, and Mayfield’s improbable rise is one of the most surprising developments in football. Here’s how the top three contenders stack up heading into Week 7.
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NFL MVP Odds Breakdown
Patrick Mahomes (+200) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Mahomes has reasserted himself atop the MVP race after a dominant Sunday performance in prime time. The two-time MVP threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns while orchestrating a second-half surge that buried Detroit. Through six weeks, Mahomes has over 1,500 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and only two interceptions, leading Kansas City back to .500 after an uneven start. His ability to elevate a retooled offense while keeping the Chiefs in contention makes him the rightful frontrunner as October rolls on.
Josh Allen (+300) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Allen’s MVP case took a hit on Monday night after another erratic outing in the Bills’ road loss to Washington. While the numbers remain strong overall, Buffalo’s recent skid has dimmed his momentum and raised concerns about the offense’s inconsistency. The Bills have now lost two straight, and with Drake Maye and the Patriots temporarily reclaiming first place in the AFC East, Allen will need to turn things around quickly. Still, he remains within striking distance, especially if the Bills can regain their rhythm heading into the second half of the season.
Baker Mayfield (+350) Click here to get the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Mayfield continues to be one of the NFL’s biggest surprises, leading the Buccaneers to a 5-1 record despite a revolving door of injuries at receiver. His efficiency and leadership have kept the offense on track, and his statistical profile stacks up favorably against Mahomes and Allen with more yards, more touchdowns, and fewer interceptions. The schedule won’t get easier, though, as Tampa Bay travels to Detroit for a Monday night showdown in Week 7. If Mayfield can guide the Bucs to another upset win on the road, he may very well find himself as the new MVP favorite next week.
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