2026 NFL Draft First Pick Odds: Ty Simpson, Fernando Mendoza New First Overall Draft Pick Favorites
The 2026 NFL Draft is shaping up to be another lackluster QB class, and tanking franchises are grappling with the weak offerings. Right now, Ty Simpson and Fernando Mendoza are leading the charge for the 2026 First Overall Pick, but also because they are leading in the Heisman. A lot can change between now and April, but Peter Alexis is here to break down the NFL Draft odds in the meantime.
Peter Alexis - October 29, 2025, 4:00 PM EDT
5 Minute Read2026 NFL Draft First Pick Odds: Could Ty Simpson, Fernando Mendoza End Up As Top Draft Pick Next Spring?
The 2026 NFL Draft race for the No. 1 overall pick is wide open and, frankly, underwhelming compared to recent years. There’s no consensus superstar like Caleb Williams or Trevor Lawrence in this class, and front offices are grappling with a shallow group of quarterbacks at the top. Alabama’s Ty Simpson currently leads the market at +200, with Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza right behind at +300. Both are front-runners in the Heisman race and have the production to justify top billing, but questions remain about whether either has the elite arm talent or polish NFL scouts crave in a franchise quarterback.
It’s been a strange year for quarterback prospects overall. Oregon’s Dante Moore looked like the favorite through the first month of the season before being outdueled by Mendoza in a high-profile loss. Behind him, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier—both top candidates a year ago—have fallen off the pace due to injuries, inconsistency, and disappointing team performances. The lone defensive player among the favorites, Miami’s Reuben Bain Jr., has an opportunity to rise if he finishes strong, though he’s been relatively quiet statistically. With no surefire generational prospect emerging, this draft could easily tilt toward a team reaching for upside or pivoting to defense.
The quarterback uncertainty mirrors what happened last year, when no passer separated from the pack and the Titans’ Cam Ward became the top pick by default. That experiment isn’t going well in Tennessee so far, and teams near the bottom of the standings are facing a similar dilemma. This year’s class might not offer an instant franchise savior, which could open the door for creative trades or a defensive selection at No. 1. Still, Simpson and Mendoza have earned their edge with steady play and high-ceiling potential in big-time college football settings.
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2026 NFL Draft First Pick Odds
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2026 NFL Draft First Pick Odds Breakdown
Ty Simpson (+220) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Ty Simpson sits as the clear favorite at +200, and rightfully so. The Alabama quarterback has looked poised and polished in his first full season as the starter, guiding the Crimson Tide through a brutal SEC schedule while staying near the top of the Heisman conversation. His accuracy and leadership have elevated Alabama’s offense, and scouts love his ability to deliver under pressure. If Simpson keeps this pace and Alabama makes a playoff push, it’ll be hard to imagine anyone overtaking him as the presumed No. 1 pick.
Fernando Mendoza (+300) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Fernando Mendoza has surged to +300 after a breakout campaign leading Indiana’s surprise run in the Big Ten. The sophomore has displayed excellent pocket awareness and efficiency, carving up defenses with precision throws and timely decisions. His performance against Oregon’s Dante Moore was a defining moment, outplaying a top rival on a national stage. If he can continue stacking big games, Mendoza could easily overtake Simpson in the odds, though his smaller sample size of elite competition is still a lingering question mark for NFL evaluators.
Rueben Bain Jr. (+800) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Reuben Bain Jr. is the only defensive player in the top five at +700, a testament to his freakish athleticism and pass-rushing upside. While his production has been modest this season with just two sacks, Bain’s explosiveness and versatility make him a potential top-10 lock regardless of the offensive landscape. If he finishes the year with a few statement games, teams could talk themselves into taking a defensive cornerstone in a weak quarterback draft.
Dante Moore (+800) Check out these best odds at Bet365 Sportsbook
Oregon’s Dante Moore, now at +800, was the early favorite before running into trouble against Mendoza’s Hoosiers. His raw arm strength and deep-ball accuracy still make him one of the most intriguing prospects in the class, but consistency has been his downfall. Scouts still see first-round tools, and he has time to recover his draft stock if Oregon finishes strong, but he’ll need to clean up decision-making and regain his early-season form to reenter the top-tier conversation.
Former Leaders: LaNorris Sellers (+700), Garrett Nussmeier (+2700) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
LaNorris Sellers, also at +700, and Garrett Nussmeier, way back at +2700, round out the group with fading momentum. Sellers’ dual-threat promise from 2024 hasn’t materialized this season as South Carolina has stumbled to a 1-5 SEC record. His accuracy and decision-making have regressed, and the Gamecocks’ offense has sputtered.
Nussmeier’s fall has been even steeper—his injured throwing arm and LSU’s collapse under recently fired Brian Kelly have tanked his stock. Once a top contender, he’s fallen from +300 to +2700, and barring a dramatic turnaround, both quarterbacks are unlikely to sniff the top spot in the 2026 NFL Draft.
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