2026 NFL Draft First Pick Odds: Fernando Mendoza Grows to 60% Favorite to be 1st Overall Pick After Title Win
The 2026 NFL Draft class remains weak, but all four First Overall Pick candidates will be on display in the College Football Playoffs. Fernando Mendoza is the odds-on favorite after winning the Big Ten Title, but can he maintain his lead as the season comes to a close? Peter Alexis updates the 2026 NFL Draft First pick Odds as of December 9th.
Peter Alexis - December 9, 2025, 2:00 PM EST
5 Minute Read2026 NFL Draft First Pick Odds: Can Fernando Mendoza Sustain 1st Overall Pick Momentum Through College Football Playoffs?
The race for the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft has shifted dramatically as the college football regular season wraps up and the expanded playoff begins. What was once a murky and evenly matched contest among several inconsistent quarterbacks has finally sorted itself into a more recognizable hierarchy. One name has pulled ahead as the clear favorite, while the rest of the contenders are now fighting for positioning beneath him.
The biggest story of the last six weeks is the rise of Fernando Mendoza, whose undefeated run with Indiana and Big Ten championship win vaulted him from +300 in midseason to the new favorite at -150. While this quarterback class still lacks a generational no brainer talent, Mendoza’s steady play, postseason platform, and ability to carry a previously dormant program have turned him into the draft’s most appealing option. But the playoff will be the real proving ground. All four major contenders will be on national display in the coming weeks, and each will have a chance to swing momentum back in their favor.
The NFL side of this equation also adds chaos. As of today, the New York Giants hold the tiebreaker for the first overall pick with four games left. Because they already have Dart entrenched as their quarterback, they are unlikely to select Mendoza themselves. That leaves the door wide open for trade up scenarios, rival QBs rising, or a defensive standout sneaking into the conversation. With the Jets and several QB desperate teams lurking in the top 10, the dominos are lined up for major volatility. But for the moment, the odds board is centered squarely around one name.
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2026 NFL Draft First Pick Odds
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2026 NFL Draft First Pick Odds Breakdown
Fernando Mendoza (-150) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Mendoza’s postseason surge has placed him firmly atop the market after sitting at +300 just six weeks ago. Indiana’s undefeated season, conference championship, and his poised performance under pressure have all cemented him as the most complete quarterback prospect in the class. While he doesn’t possess the elite arm strength of past No. 1 picks, his accuracy, decision making, and leadership in high leverage moments have won scouts over.
His playoff path begins with the 8 seed Oklahoma State Cowboys, a matchup that offers a controlled opening test. If Indiana keeps rolling and Mendoza continues to deliver clean, efficient football, it becomes increasingly difficult to imagine him losing his grip on the top spot. His rise has been steady rather than explosive, but that reliability is precisely what this quarterback class lacks.
Dante Moore (+380) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Moore has rebounded nicely from his midseason slide. After dropping to +800 following Oregon’s loss to Indiana, he has climbed back to +380 thanks to an 11-1 finish and a renewed sense of command in Oregon’s offense. He now gets a golden opportunity sitting as a 21 point favorite over James Madison in the first round of the playoff. Scouts expect fireworks in that game, and Moore has a chance to put up the kind of gaudy numbers that reignite his No. 1 pick profile.
If the Ducks advance to face Texas Tech in the quarterfinal, the matchup becomes even more enticing. A shootout on national TV could elevate Moore back into a true challenger to Mendoza. With elite arm talent and the best raw tools in the class, Moore is the prospect most capable of a late surge. His odds tightening from +800 to +380 reflects that growing belief among evaluators.
Rueben Bain Jr. (+400) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Miami’s star pass rusher has quietly become one of the most compelling non quarterback candidates in recent memory. Bain has risen from +800 to +400 as the Hurricanes punched their ticket into the playoff and set up a marquee matchup with Texas A&M. His blend of power and explosiveness has always intrigued scouts, but now he gets the stage he lacked earlier in the season.
If Bain has a dominant performance against the Aggies’ offensive line or generates game changing plays in front of a massive national audience, he could threaten to become the rare defensive player selected first overall. With no elite quarterback in this class, it only takes one front office to fall in love. And with teams like the Giants potentially trading the pick, Bain has a realistic path to becoming the top selection if quarterbacks struggle in the postseason spotlight.
Ty Simpson (+650) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Simpson has experienced the steepest fall among the frontrunners. Once the midseason favorite at +220, he has dropped to +650 after Alabama’s offense sputtered and the Tide lost two of their last three games. Simpson’s Heisman hopes evaporated, and inconsistency late in the season has cast doubt on his top pick resume.
Still, he is not out of the race entirely. Alabama enters the playoff seeking revenge against a suffocating Oklahoma defense that dismantled them earlier in the season. If Simpson turns the narrative around with a big postseason run, he can absolutely climb back into the mix. But his odds drift tells the story: where he was once seen as the safest quarterback in the class, he is now viewed as a volatile prospect entering make or break territory.
First Overall Pick Market Considerations
Everything in this market is tied to the NFL tankathon unfolding below it. The Giants currently project to hold the first pick, but with Dart locked in, they are almost certain to explore trade options if they end up with the pick. The Jets and Raiders are among several QB needy teams sitting close behind, and any late season movement could dramatically reshape this market.
Right now, Mendoza is the favorite, but with all four contenders stepping onto playoff stages in the next few weeks, the race is far from settled. The scouting community will be watching closely to see who rises, who stumbles, and who declares the loudest in the biggest moments of the year.
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