NFL Coach of the Year Odds: Mike Vrabel Heavy Favorite to Bring Home Coach of the Year After Regular Season
Mike Vrabel is nearly a lock for the Coach of the Year after finishing 14-3 in his first season with the Patriots. Only Mike Macdonald and Liam Coen are nearby in the odds, but both trail by a significant margin. Peter Alexis reviews the final NFL Coach of the Year odds after the regular season.
Peter Alexis - January 5, 2026, 10:30 AM EST
5 Minute ReadNFL Coach of the Year Odds: Mike Vrabel Expands Lead After Week 18 Blowout Win
The NFL Coach of the Year race is no longer competitive at the top of the board. After Week 18 wrapped up on Sunday, Mike Vrabel has taken firm control and now holds a commanding position as the clear favorite. What was once a crowded and volatile market has sharply consolidated following a decisive final weekend that strengthened Vrabel’s narrative while knocking several challengers out of serious contention.
New England’s dominant close to the regular season, paired with high profile losses by Kyle Shanahan and Ben Johnson, has reshaped the award entirely. Vrabel’s Patriots finished 14-3, secured the AFC’s 2 seed, and did so in emphatic fashion with a near 30 point win over Miami. That result pushed Vrabel’s odds all the way to -370, a massive jump from the +180 range he sat at just a few weeks ago.
There are still challengers on the board, most notably Mike Macdonald and Liam Coen, but the gap has widened significantly. With regular season resumes now locked in, this race has become about narrative weight, team transformation, and how voters interpret adversity versus dominance.
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2025 Coach of the Year Odds
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NFL Coach of the Year Odds Breakdown
Mike Vrabel (-370) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Vrabel has separated himself from the field with a season that checks every traditional Coach of the Year box. New England’s rebound under a new head coach was swift and overwhelming, going from irrelevance to a 14-3 record and a top two seed in the AFC. The Patriots closed the year by dismantling the Dolphins, removing any lingering doubt about their legitimacy and erasing the memory of earlier schedule strength criticism.
While the Patriots did benefit from the league’s easiest schedule, voters historically reward win totals and clear organizational turnarounds. Vrabel delivered both. He stabilized the roster, maximized Drake Maye’s MVP caliber season, and restored an identity that had vanished in recent years. With home field advantage secured through at least one playoff round, Vrabel now looks poised to become a near consensus choice barring a shocking late shift in voter sentiment.
Mike Macdonald (+410) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Macdonald remains the closest challenger, though he now appears to be chasing rather than pressuring the favorite. Seattle’s win over the 49ers on Saturday night was one of the most impressive performances of the weekend, as the Seahawks controlled the game from start to finish and leaned heavily on a dominant run game. That victory secured the NFC West title and the conference’s 1 seed, a massive accomplishment in Macdonald’s first year.
In many seasons, this résumé would be strong enough to win the award outright. Seattle’s defensive turnaround and overall consistency deserve recognition. However, when compared to New England’s full scale rebound and Vrabel’s season long control, Macdonald’s case lacks the same shock factor. He is likely to finish second, respected but overshadowed by a more dramatic transformation elsewhere.
Liam Coen (+700) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Coen rounds out the remaining realistic contenders after guiding Jacksonville to a 13-4 record, an AFC South title, and the 3 seed. The Jaguars closed the season on an eight game winning streak and reestablished Trevor Lawrence as a top tier quarterback under Coen’s system. Hosting the Bills in the playoffs is a reward for one of the league’s most consistent second half surges.
The issue for Coen is timing and competition. His rise came steadily rather than explosively, and it coincided with Vrabel’s Patriots pulling away at the top. While 13-4 is an outstanding record and the Jaguars clearly exceeded expectations, voters tend to favor either dramatic turnarounds or extreme adversity. Coen did everything right, but he likely did not do enough to overcome Vrabel’s narrative edge.
Ben Johnson, Kyle Shanahan Tumble After Final Week Losses
Kyle Shanahan and Ben Johnson both saw their Coach of the Year cases collapse in Week 18. Shanahan entered Saturday night with a legitimate chance to steal the award if the 49ers could win at home against Seattle. The stakes were enormous. A victory would have secured the NFC West title and the 1 seed. Instead, San Francisco delivered a disastrous offensive performance, scoring just three points and getting physically dominated. That loss dropped them to the 6 seed and sent Shanahan’s odds plummeting to +30000.
Ben Johnson suffered a similar fate. Chicago's loss to Detroit ended any remaining momentum in his candidacy, sending his odds all the way to +8000. While both coaches navigated injuries and adversity throughout the season, voters ultimately reward results at the finish line. With Week 18 now complete, the door has effectively closed on both.
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