Tua Tagovailoa Next Team Odds: Falcons, Vikings, Steelers Among Favorites After Monday Release from Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins finally released Tua Tagovailoa on Monday morning, absorbing a massive cap hit but saving some before the March 11 deadline. Where will the veteran QB go next? Peter Alexis breaks down the candidates like the Steelers, Vikings, and Falcons who loom in this Tua Tagovailoa Next Team Market.
Peter Alexis - March 9, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT
5 Minute ReadTua Tagovailoa Next Team Odds: Falcons, Vikings, Steelers Lurk After Tua Released by Dolphins on Monday Morning
The Tua Tagovailoa era in Miami officially ended Monday morning, as the Dolphins released the former Pro Bowl quarterback after a disastrous 2025 season that culminated with his benching late in the year. The move had been widely expected across the league, but it finally became official just days before the new NFL league year, immediately sending betting markets into another round of volatility.
Prediction markets reacted quickly. With Miami now completely out of the picture, bettors have shifted their focus to which team will take a chance on the 28-year-old quarterback, who once led the NFL in passing yards but now hits the market as a reclamation project. The Kalshi next team market has already seen nearly $100,000 in trading volume, though the relatively low liquidity means odds can swing dramatically on new reports or insider rumors.
Right now, the market has identified several leading destinations. Atlanta currently leads the board at 52%, followed by Minnesota at 37%, with the Indianapolis Colts (22%), Pittsburgh Steelers (19%), New York Jets (18%), and Arizona Cardinals (7%) rounding out the primary landing spots. With Tua now officially available, those numbers could move quickly as teams finalize offseason quarterback plans.
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Tua Tagovailoa Next Team Odds
Team | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Atlanta Falcons | 52% |
Minnesota Vikings | 37% |
Indianapolis Colts | 22% |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 19% |
New York Jets | 18% |
Arizona Cardinals | 7% |
Tua Tagovailoa Next Team Odds Breakdown
Atlanta Falcons: 52% Chance
Atlanta has emerged as the current favorite in the market, and the reasoning is straightforward. The Falcons have been repeatedly mentioned in league reporting as a team that could use a short-term veteran quarterback, especially with Michael Penix Jr. recovering from a torn ACL.
The Falcons also offer one of the most quarterback-friendly environments possible. Playing half their games inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium eliminates weather concerns that have followed Tagovailoa throughout his career. With offensive weapons like Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts, Atlanta could view Tua as a low-cost bridge option if he proves healthy enough to compete for snaps while Penix works his way back.
Minnesota Vikings: 37% Chance
Minnesota has quietly become one of the most logical landing spots in the market. After a chaotic 2025 season at quarterback, the Vikings still lack a clear long-term solution and could easily justify taking a low-risk swing on a veteran passer.
The Vikings’ offensive environment also works in Tua’s favor. Minnesota plays in a controlled indoor stadium, and the presence of Justin Jefferson gives any quarterback an elite target. If Minnesota decides it needs a reliable veteran while sorting out its future quarterback plans, Tua could quickly climb from dark horse to co-favorite in the market.
Indianapolis Colts: 22%
Indianapolis represents a more situational possibility tied directly to injury concerns. Daniel Jones tore his Achilles late in the 2025 season, and while the Colts still expect him to return, the timeline for that recovery leaves plenty of uncertainty entering the offseason.
That uncertainty could make Tua an appealing insurance policy. Indianapolis might prefer signing a veteran who has already proven capable of starting games rather than relying entirely on Jones’ recovery or turning to an inexperienced backup. At 22%, bettors are pricing in the possibility that the Colts simply need a quarterback ready for Week 1.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 19%
Pittsburgh was once the runaway leader in this market before Monday’s release, but the odds have cooled significantly. The Steelers still have a major quarterback question entering the Mike McCarthy era, especially with uncertainty surrounding the long-term situation around veteran options.
The biggest concern analysts continue to point out is the fit. Tua has historically played his best football in warm-weather or indoor environments, and Pittsburgh’s late-season conditions are the exact opposite. That hasn’t completely removed the Steelers from the race, but it may explain why their odds have cooled compared to earlier market spikes.
New York Jets: 18%
The Jets remain an intriguing wild card in the market. New York has shown a willingness to take aggressive swings at quarterback in recent years, and pairing Tua with Garrett Wilson and a revamped offense could offer a fresh start for both sides.
There is also the narrative factor. A move to New York would mean Tua facing Miami twice a season while the Dolphins absorb a massive dead cap hit. That storyline alone has kept the Jets hovering around 18% in the market, though weather concerns similar to Pittsburgh remain part of the evaluation.
Arizona Cardinals: 7%
Arizona sits further down the board but still holds a small share of market interest. The Cardinals’ roster features intriguing young weapons such as Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, and the warm climate would certainly fit Tua’s preferred playing conditions.
Still, reporting has not strongly linked Arizona to Tagovailoa, and the team has other quarterback options available internally. At 7%, the Cardinals remain more of a speculative landing spot than a likely destination for now.
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