Which Quarterback Will Be Drafted Next on Friday Night After Shocking Ty Simpson Pick?
Ty Simpson was shockingly drafted by the Rams with the 13th pick on Thursday night, and now everyone is wondering who could be taken next at QB. Carson Beck made the championship, but Garrett Nussmeier was highly touted before he got injured. Will a team take a chance on him, or go with Beck next? Peter Alexis analyzes the Third Quarterback Drafted Odds on Friday, April 24th.
Peter Alexis - April 24, 2026, 6:30 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadThird Quarterback Drafted Odds: Carson Beck Surges Past Garrett Nussmeier Ahead of Friday's Second Round
The quarterback board got shaken up hard on Thursday night. Fernando Mendoza went No. 1 overall to the Raiders, and then the real surprise came when the Rams took Ty Simpson at No. 13, much earlier than many expected for a team that still has Matthew Stafford in place. That left the “third quarterback drafted” market to Friday night, and suddenly what once looked like a muddled race has become much more defined.
In the market shown here, Carson Beck surged from roughly 42% to 72%, while Garrett Nussmeier slipped to 24% and Drew Allar drifted even farther back. That move tracks with the broader Day 2 buzz. Beck has had late momentum, Nussmeier still has believers but also more medical and inconsistency questions, and Allar feels more like the fallback option if teams pass on the first two names.
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NFL Draft Day 2 Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Friday, April 23rd, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: ABC, ESPN, NFL Network
NFL Draft Third Quarterback Drafted Odds
Quarterback | Implied Chance |
|---|---|
Carson Beck | 73% |
Garrett Nussmeier | 24% |
Drew Allar | 8% |
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First Wide Receiver Drafted Odds Breakdown
Carson Beck: 73% Chance Bet on Third Quarterback Drafted with Kalshi Here
Beck now looks like the favorite for a reason. At Miami in 2025, he threw for 3,813 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions while completing 72.4% of his passes, and he remains one of the more experienced, high-volume throwers left on the board. There has also been steady late smoke around him, with Day 2 projections and draft chatter tying him to teams like the Cardinals, Jets, Steelers, and Browns, which is exactly the kind of multi-team interest that can push a quarterback into QB3 status quickly.
The strongest part of Beck’s case is that he seems to have momentum at the right moment. Multiple Day 2 projections have him coming off the board before the other remaining quarterbacks, and one Friday mock had Arizona taking him at No. 65. If teams want polish, experience, and a passer who has handled a lot of football, Beck is the cleanest answer left.
Garrett Nussmeier: 24% Chance Bet on Third Quarterback Drafted with Kalshi Here
Nussmeier is still very much alive, but the story around him has turned shakier. He entered the broader draft cycle with much higher expectations, yet his stock appears to have been hit by an injury-affected 2025 season and lingering questions about long-term durability. Reports Friday noted that a deeper medical evaluation found a cyst pressing on a nerve and that his 2025 year at LSU was dragged down by an oblique issue, even though teams reportedly do not see the current situation as serious.
There is still enough talent here for a team to take the plunge. Nussmeier threw for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2024, and evaluators still like his quick-rhythm passing, touch, and anticipation. One Day 2 projection sent him to the Steelers at No. 53, and another fit-based piece specifically pointed to the Jets as a logical landing spot. But compared to Beck, his path now feels more dependent on one team being willing to bet on the healthier, earlier version of him.
Drew Allar: 8% Chance Bet on Third Quarterback Drafted with Kalshi Here
Allar is the longshot of the three, but he cannot be dismissed entirely because of his pedigree and physical tools. At Penn State in 2025, he appeared in six games, throwing for 1,100 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions while completing 64.8% of his passes, and he added 172 rushing yards. The problem is that his résumé this past season does not have the same late buzz as Beck’s or the earlier first-round conversation that Nussmeier once carried.
Where Allar makes sense is as a developmental bet for a team that misses on the other quarterbacks. He has been connected in team-fit chatter to clubs like the Steelers, and if the board gets thinned out early Friday, someone could still decide his upside is worth the swing. But right now, the market is telling a pretty clear story: this looks much more like Beck vs. Nussmeier, with Allar needing the first two to slide longer than expected.
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