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NHL MVP Odds: Nathan MacKinnon Reclaims Spot Atop Leaderboard Over Auston Matthews

Nathan MacKinnon has come back for the top spot with a vengeance, retaking the NHL MVP odds leader way from Auston Matthews. Can MacKinnon hang on for good over the last month of the season? Matt MacKay breaks down the latest movements and odds.
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NHL MVP Odds: Nathan MacKinnon Reclaims Spot Atop Leaderboard Over Auston Matthews

The Hart Trophy odds for NHL MVP continue to see-saw between the top four players we've seen for several weeks now.

As the playoff push heats up, teams are either rising or falling in the standings, which has a big impact on how oddsmakers set the Hart Trophy lines in NHL futures markets. For instance, now that Colorado is back in the win column consistently, winning three-in-a-row and going 7-2-1 in their last ten games played, Nathan MacKinnon has returned to even odds to lead all players with the shortest odds for the 2024 Hart Trophy.

Conversely, players like Auston Matthews and Nikita Kucherov are trending down in the NHL MVP odds. Both star players are enduring a lull in goal-scoring production combined with some spotty play from their surrounding teammates.

NHL handicapper Matt MacKay returns with his latest insight for how to maximize a return on investments made within the NHL MVP betting markets for the 2023-24 Hart Trophy award.

NHL MVP ODDS

Click here for the latest NHL MVP odds

PLAYERODDSTRENDINGIMPLIED CHANCE
Nathan MacKinnon100Up50%
Connor McDavid300Up25%
Auston Matthews350Down22.22%
Nikita Kucherov400Down20%

NHL MVP ODDS BREAKDOWN

After writing off Nathan MacKinnon due to Colorado's losing slump following the All-Star Weekend, their star center is right back atop the Hart Trophy odds. MacKinnon has been a point-scoring machine lately, racking up at least two points in four of his past five games played, including five goals and eight assists during this stretch.

MacKinnon has rocketed up from +210 a week ago to +100 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Meanwhile, Connor McDavid, one of my preferred buy-low candidates, is also inching up with shorter odds, going from +360 to +300 in the Hart Trophy futures market. This is due to McDavid's return to lighting the lamp, while the Oilers are also 6-3-1 across their past ten games. These wins include a late comeback win on the road against Boston and a 4-0 rout of Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon.

Matthews and Kucherov are uber-talented but their teams are faltering a bit right now, which is a big driver for why their odds are growing longer. Matthews has only scored once in his past five games, while still leading the NHL in total goals scored with 54. However, two consecutive games without a point is mildly concerning, as Toronto went 0-2 against the Bruins this past week.

Kucherov hasn't had to be as much of an impact player lately due to moves Tampa Bay made at the trade deadline, but he's still second in the NHL for total points with 107. Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in eight consecutive games but he's riding a multi-game goal scoring drought, which definitely drops him in the Hart Trophy odds a bit.

There are still 20 games left for most teams, meaning there's a high probability of more shuffling when it comes to these top four players leading the Hart Trophy odds market right now. We've seen MacKinnon break out of a slump and will Colorado to victory, with his fingerprints all over most scoring possessions. McDavid continues to be the best skater in the league and has ridiculous vision, while Kucherov and Matthews are bonafide superstars for their first attack line.

MacKinnon's the only player seeking his first Hart Trophy, so perhaps there's a bit more motivation compared to the other three who already have collected this hardware in prior seasons. Matthews at +350 is great value considering where he was at +165 a week ago, but Toronto needs to start winning games and he'll need to start scoring at a high-rate again to compete with MacKinnon.

McDavid remains the best overall value to wager in current Hart Trophy futures markets at +300. Edmonton did take a couple surprising road losses to Buffalo and Columbus but a 4-0 shutout on the road against Pittsburgh, led by McDavid scoring the opening goal, signals that the Oilers are poised to make another playoff run to clinch an elusive berth in the 2024 Stanley Cup Finals.

Let's stake a unit on McDavid at 3-1 odds, a half unit on Matthews at +350, and monitor MacKinnon on Colorado to see if he drops into better value before the end of the regular season.

NHL ODDS

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Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.

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