2025 VMA Odds: Who Will Win Video of the Year, Best New Artist at MTV Video Music Awards?
The 2025 VMA's will air from Long Island at UBS Arena on Sunday, September 7th. There are many stars in the mix to win video awards, like Kendrick Lamar and Bruno Mars. Check out the odds for each VMA category via Kalshi below.
Peter Alexis - September 7, 2025, 6:00 PM EDT
5 Minute Read2025 VMA Odds: Who Will Win Video of the Year, Best New Artist at MTV Video Music Awards?
The MTV Video Music Awards return in 2025 with one of the most star-studded lineups in recent memory. This year’s nominations feature a mix of established icons and rising stars, setting the stage for a night filled with high anticipation and potential surprises. At the center of the buzz are Kendrick Lamar and Bruno Mars, two heavyweights who enter the ceremony as frontrunners across multiple categories.
Lamar leads the field with Not Like Us, the powerhouse track that has positioned him as the favorite for both Best Hip Hop and the coveted Video of the Year. His sharp lyricism and cultural influence make him a force difficult to match, and many see this as another chapter in his already legendary run. Mars, meanwhile, has doubled his chances in Best Pop with two nominations, Die With a Smile featuring Lady Gaga and Rose with Apt., proving his versatility and dominance across collaborations.
With contenders like Sabrina Carpenter, Ariana Grande, Morgan Wallen, and Jelly Roll also in the mix, the 2025 VMAs promise not only major headlines but also the possibility of upsets. From breakout performers to veteran superstars, the awards are once again set to reflect the evolving landscape of music while celebrating the artists shaping its future.
The best part is, you can bet on all of these outcomes on Kalshi, with an award market for each category. Let's take a look at the complete VMA odds for Video of the Year, Best New Artist, and more.
Bet on the VMA's and more award show props with Kalshi Here
Latest VMA Odds From Kalshi
Video of the Year Winner Odds
The Video of the Year race at the MTV Video Music Awards is shaping up to be one of the most competitive of the night. Kendrick Lamar holds the lead at 44 percent with Not Like Us, a visually striking project that matches his lyrical bite with cultural weight. Sabrina Carpenter follows at 21 percent with Manchild, a breakout hit that has cemented her rise into pop’s top tier and could steal the spotlight if younger voters rally behind her. Ariana Grande’s Brighter Days Ahead lingers just behind, carrying the kind of wide-reaching appeal and polished visuals that make her a dangerous contender. With no nominee holding a majority, this is a category primed for drama and a potential upset on music’s biggest stage.
Best Pop Odds
Bruno Mars finds himself in rare company at this year’s MTV Video Music Awards, leading the way in the Best Pop race with two separate nominations. His collaboration with Lady Gaga, Die With a Smile, is the favorite at 40 percent, powered by its global chart success and the star power of two of pop’s biggest names. Close behind is Rose featuring Apt., which sits at 30 percent and has gained momentum with its streaming performance and critical praise. With two strong entries splitting the field, Mars has established himself as the category’s front-runner, and the only real question is which track voters will rally behind.
Best Country Odds
Morgan Wallen enters the MTV Video Music Awards as the frontrunner for Best Country with a 60 percent chance to win. His dominance on streaming platforms and radio over the past year has made him the genre’s biggest commercial force, giving him the edge in a stacked category. Still, Jelly Roll sits close behind at 35 percent and has the momentum to pull off an upset. Fresh off a high-profile tour with Post Malone that expanded his fan base beyond country, Jelly Roll has surged in popularity and could capitalize on that crossover appeal when the votes are tallied.
Best Hip-Hop Odds
Kendrick Lamar is the overwhelming favorite to take home Best Hip Hop at the MTV Video Music Awards, with oddsmakers giving him an 89 percent chance of winning with Not Like Us. His latest run has reinforced his reputation as one of the genre’s defining voices, combining lyrical depth with mainstream impact in a way few can match. Doechii and the rest of the field bring fresh creativity and buzz, but Kendrick’s critical acclaim, cultural influence, and proven track record on the VMA stage make him the heavy favorite to add yet another trophy to his legacy.
Best New Artist Odds
Alex Warren enters the MTV Video Music Awards as the clear frontrunner for Best New Artist thanks to a breakout year that blended massive streaming success with a fast-growing fan base. His authentic storytelling and viral hits have made him one of the most recognizable new voices in pop music, pushing him ahead of a competitive field. While artists like The Marías bring critical acclaim and a unique sound, Warren’s mainstream reach, consistent chart presence, and cultural momentum give him a decisive edge heading into the night.
More of oddschecker
